Is there going to be panic selling?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.

OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.

Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools. Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here.

They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here.

According to the linked OPM report, there are 449,503 federal civilian employees between Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. This figure does not include federal contractors. 40% of the economy is also based in some way on the federal government. People will hunker down for as long as they can, but most people can't hunker down indefinitely.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47716
https://www.washingtonian.com/2025/01/29/trumps-attempts-to-shrink-the-federal-workforce-could-hit-the-dc-areas-economy-hard/

Those of us who have to hunker down because there is no other place to go and/or having family here, wanting kids to finish school, cannot afford to sell at rock bottom prices, etc will be looking for remote jobs or jobs in other sectors. There are many essential jobs and jobs that while relying on local economy cannot just disappear unless the entire metro area falls into ruin in literal sense and only 1/3 of the population remains. Do you really see this happening?

I don’t think that anyone, including Trump and Musk, knows what’s happening. All that said, if a scenario like 40% (~179,000) of the federal workforce in the DMV is laid off and contractors and contracts are cut, there are no DC specific (as in DC and close in MD and VA suburbs) historical parallels that we can look to in order to see how the housing market will fair. DC was one of the least affected housing markets during the 2008 financial crisis, largely because of the federal government; during the 2013 sequestration it saw a brief slowdown before rebounding; and in the 1990s federal reductions led to short-term softening, but nothing larger. None of these situations seems to really come close to a hypothetical worst case scenario under Trump.

The numbers aren't there to impact things as much as some may think as you have to look at the total population but it really could hurt one income feds or dual income feds, especially those with high expenses and no savings.

Nobody is debating this, what you say makes total sense. But the impact analysis on RE markets has to consider so much more, the big picture.

The bigger picture is not so much the fed issue but housing prices combined with interest rates. You need a huge income to afford a $800-2 million dollar house and that's pretty much it around here. There are some pockets of $400-700 but those houses go quickly. Housing prices are not sustainable for average workers. Not including child care costs, food, and other basic goods.

Frankly I'd argue it is the interest rate that is the biggest impediment right now (of course combined with current housing prices). But say housing prices stayed where they are now, but mortgage rates fell down to 4%, you would bring a decent amount of affordability back. The issue is at the 7% is interest rate, a $1m house (with 20% down) would be around 6k PITI, but at 4% it is a much more affordable 4.5k. The interest rate has an even bigger effect as you move up the price chain (say at $1.5m or 2m mark). A reduction in the rates would very much bring affordability back and increase the number of transactions happening.

That being said, given the current political environment and the uncertainty of everything, I am not sure that even if affordability is back, that transactions would come back. Maybe it's just me, but I am certainly cutting back on spending and would not feel comfortable upgrading from what we have to something bigger even if our monthly payments do not change too substantially.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.

OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.

Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools. Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here.

They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here.

According to the linked OPM report, there are 449,503 federal civilian employees between Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. This figure does not include federal contractors. 40% of the economy is also based in some way on the federal government. People will hunker down for as long as they can, but most people can't hunker down indefinitely.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47716
https://www.washingtonian.com/2025/01/29/trumps-attempts-to-shrink-the-federal-workforce-could-hit-the-dc-areas-economy-hard/

Those of us who have to hunker down because there is no other place to go and/or having family here, wanting kids to finish school, cannot afford to sell at rock bottom prices, etc will be looking for remote jobs or jobs in other sectors. There are many essential jobs and jobs that while relying on local economy cannot just disappear unless the entire metro area falls into ruin in literal sense and only 1/3 of the population remains. Do you really see this happening?

I don’t think that anyone, including Trump and Musk, knows what’s happening. All that said, if a scenario like 40% (~179,000) of the federal workforce in the DMV is laid off and contractors and contracts are cut, there are no DC specific (as in DC and close in MD and VA suburbs) historical parallels that we can look to in order to see how the housing market will fair. DC was one of the least affected housing markets during the 2008 financial crisis, largely because of the federal government; during the 2013 sequestration it saw a brief slowdown before rebounding; and in the 1990s federal reductions led to short-term softening, but nothing larger. None of these situations seems to really come close to a hypothetical worst case scenario under Trump.

The numbers aren't there to impact things as much as some may think as you have to look at the total population but it really could hurt one income feds or dual income feds, especially those with high expenses and no savings.

Nobody is debating this, what you say makes total sense. But the impact analysis on RE markets has to consider so much more, the big picture.

Again, you still have to look at the number of feds and contractors vs. everyone else. And, many may have low mortgages or paid off their house, like we did planning for something like this to happen.

You planned for something like this to happen? Interesting. Also even if you have a paid off house unless you also have some pension, SS, or another source of income you cannot pay all other living expenses.

My spouse has been a contractor for years and contracts are never stable. Left for a big company known for terminations and layoffs. So, yes, we planned for it. We have savings. No other income which is why we plan for it.

500,000 is not a lot of the population, but 40% of the economy is huge. Many 20-50 year olds couldn’t and didn’t plan for this. If 15-25% of the economy is impacted there will be an impact on housing. There will be reduced demand for rentals and houses, which will translate to extended time on the market and likely lower prices. Inflationary policies will also push interest rates up, which will further exacerbate the situation.

[Anonymous]

I don't think you can characterize it as panic selling, but rather people adjusting to the reality of Trump/Musk wanting to do away three-quarters of the federal government jobs. These jobs have hundreds of thousands of adjacent contractors and businesses. If this occurs, the DMV will be like Detroit or any other city where the major employer dies off.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/musk-speaks-jpmorgan-event-attended-by-ceo-dimon-source-says-2025-02-07/
Musk took the stage with his mother, Maye Musk, for a conversation moderated by David Rubenstein, co-founder of private equity firm the Carlyle Group (CG.O), opens new tab.
The conversation covered a wide range of topics, including the scope of work of the Department of Government Efficiency, spearheaded by Musk.
DOGE has goals of eliminating entire federal agencies and cutting three quarters of federal government jobs.

[Anonymous]

There's a lot of pent up demand. I do think that prices will stay stable for longer than they would have and probably won't rise significantly again for about 5 years. DC always catches up to the rest of the country eventually.

The other thing to realize is that these jokers are aiming for privatization. Ultimately, that's a lot more expensive than just having federal workers do this work. And it's pretty likely that a lot of the larger federal budget will end up in this region. Listen to the words they are using "go work for the private sector." They know that they are just privatizing this work and it won't go away.

The goal is to get rid of any jobs with a pension or job security so that they can rule us better from their oligarch thrones.

But their job was never to save the government money. They don't care about that.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Anonymous]I don't think you can characterize it as panic selling, but rather people adjusting to the reality of Trump/Musk wanting to do away three-quarters of the federal government jobs. These jobs have hundreds of thousands of adjacent contractors and businesses. If this occurs, the DMV will be like Detroit or any other city where the major employer dies off.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/musk-speaks-jpmorgan-event-attended-by-ceo-dimon-source-says-2025-02-07/
Musk took the stage with his mother, Maye Musk, for a conversation moderated by David Rubenstein, co-founder of private equity firm the Carlyle Group (CG.O), opens new tab.
The conversation covered a wide range of topics, including the scope of work of the Department of Government Efficiency, spearheaded by Musk.
DOGE has goals of eliminating entire federal agencies and cutting three quarters of federal government jobs.

[/quote]

This is fair but I think belies the ultimate issue which if they make DC look like Detroit that's a much bigger issue nationally than the auto industry automating and moving global. So so so much funding for the rest of the country is dependent on federal spending. This isn't an isolated industry it's the basis of the national economy. If they succeed in cutting those jobs and the budget it's not a long fall for the rest of the economy that depends on this funding. Infrastructure, farming, healthcare to name a few all need these workers. Midwest farmers are already up in arms about USAID.

The RE market in DC will certainly be hit first but there won't be places to move because there won't be jobs anywhere. There is a reason capital cities are often less volatile than the rest of the country. If the capital city falls you can likely expect the rest of the country to follow suit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There's a lot of pent up demand. I do think that prices will stay stable for longer than they would have and probably won't rise significantly again for about 5 years. DC always catches up to the rest of the country eventually.

The other thing to realize is that these jokers are aiming for privatization. Ultimately, that's a lot more expensive than just having federal workers do this work. And it's pretty likely that a lot of the larger federal budget will end up in this region. Listen to the words they are using "go work for the private sector." They know that they are just privatizing this work and it won't go away.

The goal is to get rid of any jobs with a pension or job security so that they can rule us better from their oligarch thrones.

But their job was never to save the government money. They don't care about that.

I hope that’s the case, but I really would not count on it. They seem to want to end a lot of programs that currently exist. They are not just RIFing feds, they are ending departmental contracts with private employers/contractors.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think you can characterize it as panic selling, but rather people adjusting to the reality of Trump/Musk wanting to do away three-quarters of the federal government jobs. These jobs have hundreds of thousands of adjacent contractors and businesses. If this occurs, the DMV will be like Detroit or any other city where the major employer dies off.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/musk-speaks-jpmorgan-event-attended-by-ceo-dimon-source-says-2025-02-07/
Musk took the stage with his mother, Maye Musk, for a conversation moderated by David Rubenstein, co-founder of private equity firm the Carlyle Group (CG.O), opens new tab.
The conversation covered a wide range of topics, including the scope of work of the Department of Government Efficiency, spearheaded by Musk.
DOGE has goals of eliminating entire federal agencies and cutting three quarters of federal government jobs.

says a person who moved away and didn't sell DC RE at the height and now feeling a little bit salty

Wasn't there a recent thread like so many about the flyover cities RE and someone posted housing in a nice suburban area of Detroit and then people argued this isn't really a bargain, because it's a dated mcMansion close to 2 mil? EVERY city with any type of anemic economy has wealthy areas and multi-million dollar homes. If there are still homes in 1-2 mil dollar range in Detroit after so many decades of decline then higher end neighborhoods of DC and VA/MD are also going to be ok. Same with the most expensive neighborhoods of DC proper that were expensive for decades.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Some of my friends think there will be mass selling off homes in DC metro with huge percent of population becoming unemployed and not enough private industry jobs. For now I see homes still being built, not skipping the beat and there are no bargains, but I am worried about the future of this area despite being in private industry.

We are kind of trapped staying here and cannot sell. Family reasons and also having a cheap rate (like many others) and mortgage we can afford. Moreover, if selling off does happen where would you go? It's expensive everywhere, I can't find anything cheaper that's not a shi*hole. And if prices do tank a lot then this will become a low COL area and you can no longer cash out enough to buy anything in another metro area with a decent job market. I wonder how many people are going to be trapped in the same situation afraid to move for a sticker shock

Opposite. Too much hysteria assuming huge unemployment. If anything, there would be more demand as offices fill more will want to live closer in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some of my friends think there will be mass selling off homes in DC metro with huge percent of population becoming unemployed and not enough private industry jobs. For now I see homes still being built, not skipping the beat and there are no bargains, but I am worried about the future of this area despite being in private industry.

We are kind of trapped staying here and cannot sell. Family reasons and also having a cheap rate (like many others) and mortgage we can afford. Moreover, if selling off does happen where would you go? It's expensive everywhere, I can't find anything cheaper that's not a shi*hole. And if prices do tank a lot then this will become a low COL area and you can no longer cash out enough to buy anything in another metro area with a decent job market. I wonder how many people are going to be trapped in the same situation afraid to move for a sticker shock

Opposite. Too much hysteria assuming huge unemployment. If anything, there would be more demand as offices fill more will want to live closer in.

I wish I had access tho whatever it is you’re smoking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some of my friends think there will be mass selling off homes in DC metro with huge percent of population becoming unemployed and not enough private industry jobs. For now I see homes still being built, not skipping the beat and there are no bargains, but I am worried about the future of this area despite being in private industry.

We are kind of trapped staying here and cannot sell. Family reasons and also having a cheap rate (like many others) and mortgage we can afford. Moreover, if selling off does happen where would you go? It's expensive everywhere, I can't find anything cheaper that's not a shi*hole. And if prices do tank a lot then this will become a low COL area and you can no longer cash out enough to buy anything in another metro area with a decent job market. I wonder how many people are going to be trapped in the same situation afraid to move for a sticker shock

Opposite. Too much hysteria assuming huge unemployment. If anything, there would be more demand as offices fill more will want to live closer in.

I wish I had access tho whatever it is you’re smoking.

Same! 😆

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some of my friends think there will be mass selling off homes in DC metro with huge percent of population becoming unemployed and not enough private industry jobs. For now I see homes still being built, not skipping the beat and there are no bargains, but I am worried about the future of this area despite being in private industry.

We are kind of trapped staying here and cannot sell. Family reasons and also having a cheap rate (like many others) and mortgage we can afford. Moreover, if selling off does happen where would you go? It's expensive everywhere, I can't find anything cheaper that's not a shi*hole. And if prices do tank a lot then this will become a low COL area and you can no longer cash out enough to buy anything in another metro area with a decent job market. I wonder how many people are going to be trapped in the same situation afraid to move for a sticker shock

Opposite. Too much hysteria assuming huge unemployment. If anything, there would be more demand as offices fill more will want to live closer in.

I wish I had access tho whatever it is you’re smoking.

Same! 😆

+1. I assume contributions like the one above are due to someone either not reading the news or refusing to engage with reality, kind of like when Trump was reelected and people didn’t think there would be discernible reverberations in the government.

GSA is terminating leases left and right. I assume commercial RE is at a standstill. Residential is a different market, but it’s going to be impacted. Arlington, Alexandria, Bethesda, Silver Spring, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.

This. My DH is in “flyover country” right now for a family emergency. He would say exactly that. We are not far from retirement and the COL in his town is lower but he does not want to retire there. Plus a lot of places have become much less affordable than they were even just one or two decades ago

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some of my friends think there will be mass selling off homes in DC metro with huge percent of population becoming unemployed and not enough private industry jobs. For now I see homes still being built, not skipping the beat and there are no bargains, but I am worried about the future of this area despite being in private industry.

We are kind of trapped staying here and cannot sell. Family reasons and also having a cheap rate (like many others) and mortgage we can afford. Moreover, if selling off does happen where would you go? It's expensive everywhere, I can't find anything cheaper that's not a shi*hole. And if prices do tank a lot then this will become a low COL area and you can no longer cash out enough to buy anything in another metro area with a decent job market. I wonder how many people are going to be trapped in the same situation afraid to move for a sticker shock

Opposite. Too much hysteria assuming huge unemployment. If anything, there would be more demand as offices fill more will want to live closer in.

I wish I had access tho whatever it is you’re smoking.

Same! 😆

+1. I assume contributions like the one above are due to someone either not reading the news or refusing to engage with reality, kind of like when Trump was reelected and people didn’t think there would be discernible reverberations in the government.

GSA is terminating leases left and right. I assume commercial RE is at a standstill. Residential is a different market, but it’s going to be impacted. Arlington, Alexandria, Bethesda, Silver Spring, etc.

I am wondering what will happen to all these commercial buildings.. I think this may determine the future economy of DC (at least the city proper) and its RE market. I seriously doubt that they will just sit empty forever and fall into ruin.

[Anonymous]

I think the goal is privatization. Keep/bring back key employees into a private firm position where there is more latitude to hire/fire and drive productivity and ROI. Smaller org is easier to manage and monitor the money. IDK, it's all speculation at this point. CNN walked out a few hundred recently and it seemed like no one cared. Companies have gone bankrupt and out of business leaving people without jobs and life just went on.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think the goal is privatization. Keep/bring back key employees into a private firm position where there is more latitude to hire/fire and drive productivity and ROI. Smaller org is easier to manage and monitor the money. IDK, it's all speculation at this point. CNN walked out a few hundred recently and it seemed like no one cared. Companies have gone bankrupt and out of business leaving people without jobs and life just went on.

This is an assumption many are making including myself. But I am not seeing what the plan is yet and it's unclear what the end goal is of this entire thing. No conversations on the re-org part and bringing back people to work under a different paradigm. From RE perspective, it just means volatile situation for the market this spring. People will likely act according to their personal situations and there won't be mass anything because it's hard to tell what's going to happen yet.