The Pandemic Hit Cities Hard And Then There's Washington, DC

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m not surprised that DC has been hit harder than other cities.

There are many people who live in NY, LA, SF etc because they are world class cities and have a lot to offer.

Most people live in DC because of....work. Now there have been shifts in work structures that will likely result in a portion of DC office workers having a hybrid or fully remote work arrangement. I don’t see these people staying chained to DC like I might expect someone to still stay in NY or LA.

On top of that, add in the high COL, social unrest, homeless people and crime. DC is on the decline. It’s pretty easy to figure this out. Now see what happens with a government shutdown!

spoken like someone who has never lived in the district.

I lived in DC for years. I don’t think I ever met anyone who moved to DC for anything other than work. I never met anyone who moved to DC because it is such a great city. I did meet people who enjoy living in DC. But DC isnt a city like NY where recent college grads move there without having a job yet because they so badly want to live in NY.

DC is a company town that revolves around the government. Even removing 25% of the workforce will have a profound effect

Then you must not have been here very long. Did you live in the suburbs? DC is more than a company town. I used to live in Charlotte. THAT was a company town. Yes, there are lots of jobs that revolve around Congress, but there is also tech, lawyers, think tanks, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I wonder how many of you actually live in DC. We live in the U Street/Logan area and it's basically like there never was a pandemic. If you need to move to Frederick because of housing prices and "social unrest," well, good luck to you. You'll be replaced soon enough by the more prosperous.

Oh, a couple days ago a realtor knocked on my door and literally begged me to sell my townhouse. If DC is dying, you sure can't tell from the real estate prices.

So many suburbanites seem to get off on DC's impending demise. It's ain't gonna happen.

I believe you that your neighborhood is doing great. People who used to go into offices and spend money downtown are now spending their money closer to home. When is the last time you went downtown?

I never go downtown because I don't work. But I know, for example, that most of the major law firms are soon to require their workers to return to the office full or nearly full time. The delta variant has slowed things down, to be sure, but DC is going to come back.

I don't get why so many on DCUM seem to delight on DC having problems. It's an odd psychology.

No one is delighting. That’s your odd assumption.

Look - the WSJ had a front page article about this. There has to be *some* truth to it.

Sure, some law firms are requiring lawyers to return FT. But major law firms aren’t a large % of employers in the district. Look at what government agencies and contractors require. That’s what matters.

The majority of government workers are not in DC. Most people who live in DC don't work for the government. Law firms and nonprofits make up a huge number of employees. I work for a large think tank and we will definitely be going back as are most other orgs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m one who moved. Our very high income family was sick of being taxed like crazy, having no school, and (most of all) being surrounded by loons who think looting is a form of free speech and that encampments of human poo/drugs are appropriate near schools.

We are enjoying our lower tax rate, and REALLY enjoying living with people who have common sense!

DC has lower taxes than the surrounding jurisdictions. Strange you don't know that since you are a "very high income family." Funny - none of my neighbors believe in looting nor do they need to. Human encampments are now in all large cities.

DC is full of people with very high incomes. We are very happy here thank you very much.

You are full of it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m not surprised that DC has been hit harder than other cities.

There are many people who live in NY, LA, SF etc because they are world class cities and have a lot to offer.

Most people live in DC because of....work. Now there have been shifts in work structures that will likely result in a portion of DC office workers having a hybrid or fully remote work arrangement. I don’t see these people staying chained to DC like I might expect someone to still stay in NY or LA.

On top of that, add in the high COL, social unrest, homeless people and crime. DC is on the decline. It’s pretty easy to figure this out. Now see what happens with a government shutdown!

spoken like someone who has never lived in the district.

I lived in DC for years. I don’t think I ever met anyone who moved to DC for anything other than work. I never met anyone who moved to DC because it is such a great city. I did meet people who enjoy living in DC. But DC isnt a city like NY where recent college grads move there without having a job yet because they so badly want to live in NY.

DC is a company town that revolves around the government. Even removing 25% of the workforce will have a profound effect

You don't live here now. For whatever reason (my guess being the city was too black for your children) you left. Your bias is showing.

Haha. I know it’s hard to hear that DC doesn’t have the same appeal as NY or that the boring US government is the main employer.

Except that the government is not the main employer.

[Anonymous]

We've been listening to this drivel for some long, it's like background music.

[Anonymous]

Bowser needs to move on. Hoping a strong candidate who can defeat her runs for Mayor.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm more concerned about Metro. Will they ever get back to full ridership? They already had budget shortfalls before the pandemic.

It's a vicious cycle for Metro. Reduced ridership during covid led to reductions in service, which led to reduced ridership. I'm not sure how Metro breaks the cycle.

I used to take a bus to work from my home in NWDC. I tried that again when we started going back into the office part-time, and found that bus lines had been cut, and service on the remaining ones was unreliable. So, I went and bought a car so I wouldn't have to deal with the hassle anymore, and Metro has lost another rider for life.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm more concerned about Metro. Will they ever get back to full ridership? They already had budget shortfalls before the pandemic.

It's a vicious cycle for Metro. Reduced ridership during covid led to reductions in service, which led to reduced ridership. I'm not sure how Metro breaks the cycle.

I used to take a bus to work from my home in NWDC. I tried that again when we started going back into the office part-time, and found that bus lines had been cut, and service on the remaining ones was unreliable. So, I went and bought a car so I wouldn't have to deal with the hassle anymore, and Metro has lost another rider for life.

It's simple. Low demand. Massive supply. Buses run at 5% capacity. Trains at 10%. They need to downsize capacity. Is the silver line even needed right now? Why not delay the opening? And they need to build a more flexible system that isn't so tied to capital expenditures that consume 50% of their budget.

VRE is running trains with average utilization of only a couple people. This is nuts. Federal backfill money that fills 90% revenue gaps won't last forever. At some point you need to size the system to reality.

https://www.vre.org/service/rider/train-utilization-trends/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm more concerned about Metro. Will they ever get back to full ridership? They already had budget shortfalls before the pandemic.

It's a vicious cycle for Metro. Reduced ridership during covid led to reductions in service, which led to reduced ridership. I'm not sure how Metro breaks the cycle.

I used to take a bus to work from my home in NWDC. I tried that again when we started going back into the office part-time, and found that bus lines had been cut, and service on the remaining ones was unreliable. So, I went and bought a car so I wouldn't have to deal with the hassle anymore, and Metro has lost another rider for life.

It's simple. Low demand. Massive supply. Buses run at 5% capacity. Trains at 10%. They need to downsize capacity. Is the silver line even needed right now? Why not delay the opening? And they need to build a more flexible system that isn't so tied to capital expenditures that consume 50% of their budget.

VRE is running trains with average utilization of only a couple people. This is nuts. Federal backfill money that fills 90% revenue gaps won't last forever. At some point you need to size the system to reality.

https://www.vre.org/service/rider/train-utilization-trends/

What's incredible to me are the vast numbers of people egging this wasteful spending on. They are actively reducing rush hour service which is their largest generator of fare recovery to run more empty trains when no one wants or needs them. Commuters, who they desperately need back and particularly paying for parking, are being discouraged from returning due to the poor service all so its more convenient for some underemployed and self-proclaimed urbanist-transit bro in Silver Spring to meet a Tinder date in Petworth for an afternoon coffee who can then make either a virtue signaling post online about his journey or hopefully not a harried reprimand to WMATA about "safety" because other people on the train are not profusely thanking him for taking transit.

They need to provide service in response to demand and bank those Federal dollars for when the money runs out in two years, because they were losing huge sums at 4x the ridership even before the pandemic. Reading this article indicates that WMATA does at least have a clue at the crisis they are facing, but for some reason they don't seem to see any urgency to address it. I can only assume based on the quotes that they are just thinking the Federal government will bail them out with Federal workers returning to the office and probably also expecting another bailout in two years time.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2021/09/25/metro-pandemic-federal-worker-commuters/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m not surprised that DC has been hit harder than other cities.

There are many people who live in NY, LA, SF etc because they are world class cities and have a lot to offer.

Most people live in DC because of....work. Now there have been shifts in work structures that will likely result in a portion of DC office workers having a hybrid or fully remote work arrangement. I don’t see these people staying chained to DC like I might expect someone to still stay in NY or LA.

On top of that, add in the high COL, social unrest, homeless people and crime. DC is on the decline. It’s pretty easy to figure this out. Now see what happens with a government shutdown!

spoken like someone who has never lived in the district.

I lived in DC for years. I don’t think I ever met anyone who moved to DC for anything other than work. I never met anyone who moved to DC because it is such a great city. I did meet people who enjoy living in DC. But DC isnt a city like NY where recent college grads move there without having a job yet because they so badly want to live in NY.

DC is a company town that revolves around the government. Even removing 25% of the workforce will have a profound effect

You don't live here now. For whatever reason (my guess being the city was too black for your children) you left. Your bias is showing.

Haha. I know it’s hard to hear that DC doesn’t have the same appeal as NY or that the boring US government is the main employer.

Except that the government is not the main employer.

LOL. The only reason there is even a city here is because of government.

[Anonymous]

One thing the pandemic taught me is how nice it is to live in an area where people think like me -- especially in regards to mask wearing. I wear masks, even when I am outdoors, and living in DC has been great for that. Now this doesn't address how to fix the downtown problem, but it is a reason that I won't be moving away to the suburbs anytime soon.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:One thing the pandemic taught me is how nice it is to live in an area where people think like me -- especially in regards to mask wearing. I wear masks, even when I am outdoors, and living in DC has been great for that. Now this doesn't address how to fix the downtown problem, but it is a reason that I won't be moving away to the suburbs anytime soon.

Wanted to add that my kids' schools require kids to wear masks all the time, even when outdoors on the playground, and there has been no fuss about that from anyone. I love that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One thing the pandemic taught me is how nice it is to live in an area where people think like me -- especially in regards to mask wearing. I wear masks, even when I am outdoors, and living in DC has been great for that. Now this doesn't address how to fix the downtown problem, but it is a reason that I won't be moving away to the suburbs anytime soon.

Wanted to add that my kids' schools require kids to wear masks all the time, even when outdoors on the playground, and there has been no fuss about that from anyone. I love that.

What do you think is going on in the suburbs? You don't magically end up in the Florida panhandle after crossing the Potomac or Western Avenue. Actually, yes, stay in DC forever and never leave. It's safer there. The suburbs are filled with slack jawed yokels from the set of Deliverance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:One thing the pandemic taught me is how nice it is to live in an area where people think like me -- especially in regards to mask wearing. I wear masks, even when I am outdoors, and living in DC has been great for that. Now this doesn't address how to fix the downtown problem, but it is a reason that I won't be moving away to the suburbs anytime soon.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm more concerned about Metro. Will they ever get back to full ridership? They already had budget shortfalls before the pandemic.

It's a vicious cycle for Metro. Reduced ridership during covid led to reductions in service, which led to reduced ridership. I'm not sure how Metro breaks the cycle.

I used to take a bus to work from my home in NWDC. I tried that again when we started going back into the office part-time, and found that bus lines had been cut, and service on the remaining ones was unreliable. So, I went and bought a car so I wouldn't have to deal with the hassle anymore, and Metro has lost another rider for life.

It's simple. Low demand. Massive supply. Buses run at 5% capacity. Trains at 10%. They need to downsize capacity. Is the silver line even needed right now? Why not delay the opening? And they need to build a more flexible system that isn't so tied to capital expenditures that consume 50% of their budget.

VRE is running trains with average utilization of only a couple people. This is nuts. Federal backfill money that fills 90% revenue gaps won't last forever. At some point you need to size the system to reality.

https://www.vre.org/service/rider/train-utilization-trends/

I'm waiting for Maryland to reduce roads in light of the reduced commuter car traffic. At some point you need to size the system to reality.