| The people that won’t deal with numbers and math are…problematic. |
And the April 2020 one (cited previously and panned as being from April 2020) has rates that were higher than now and makes the same point. Try to look at the actual numbers instead of just saying “but delta” or even “substantial spread.” |
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How is medical testing of a child without a parent or guardian's affirmative consent legal?
Also, politically, if you've got a significant population of parents who distrust the medical field based on racism, are they going to be cool with their kids being tested without their consent? |
Yes, it does. It changes the prevelance and also likely there are far more asymptomatic cases right now than there were before so prevelance is higher than we are thinking. |
And prevalence during delta in the UK was 0.63% (cite above in the thread), or about half that in primary schools (also cite above in thread). That's "low prevalence" for the math of surveillance testing and false positives. Also cited above, a test that has 1.5% of its tests be false positives + prevalence rates of 1.0% = 60% of positive tests are false positives |
| As expected, the response is merely "but delta" without actually addressing the numbers. |
To add, the lower the prevalence rate (as it is likely to be now in DC, and even if we get a higher case rate) = an even greater percentage of false positives. |
Can this not be mitigated by always retesting? And or applying a traditional PCR test? |
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Even the traditional PCR tests, applied in this fashion, have the problem of false positives (although it is a lower rate). The problem with the false positives in the context of schools is what happens when a kid tests positive: 1) kid can't retest to come back earlier than 10 days, and 2) close contacts (however that's going to be defined) can't come back earlier than 7 days. Change the protocols there, and the false positives are not an issue. Upthread there was an example from Utah about different protocols. Other countries have adopted a "test-and-stay" approach. I can't imagine a "test-and-stay" protocol going over well here in DC, with the zero-risk-tolerance crowd (exhibited in this thread). |
Further, we test for three genes present in COVID-19 (vs. one gene for some other tests), with a specificity of 99.8-99.9% and very, very few false positives. https://www.shieldt3.com/shield-t3/frequently-asked-questions/ |
Please point me to where on the site you have offered where they specify a "test specificity" for their process. I see nothing on the website wrt testing for K12 regarding test specificity. I have provided a citation from the company for their "test specificity", which is 98.5%. You are saying that the company is...wrong? I really don't know what you are trying to say. Specificity, just to be clear, is the ability of a test to designate an individual who does not have a disease as negative. So the lower it is, the more false positives you have. A test sensitivity is different. |
I'm PP asking for that, and thank you. |
It’s probably not. DCPS/DC likely calculated that they would prefer to lose a lawsuit than to deal with the public pressure about testing. That’s what happens when you make policy in reponse to twitter rants, town halls, and “concerned parents” instead of just good policy. |
This seems like it isn't going to go over well. |