MAJOR Snowstorm?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm from Novosibirsk but you guys have scared the crap out of me!

Bwahahahahahahahah!! This is just the beginning! Tune in for more!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The European model which is generally the best is predicting 8 to 12 inches.

Euro model is not the best. It is a good model for Medium range forecasts. The US has updated the computer infrastructures so no now the GFS may be better. Also, for short range, the NAM is more precise (if you adjust for its biases). There are technical reasons why: factors such as time step size and grid spacing for the finite difference codes.

Other models that adapt the grids to the atmospheric conditions (more grid points where things are unstable) have proven useful, but this is counter to the NWS mission of uniform coverage.

So what are the best models saying?

What you want to see are models starting to come into agreement. They run at noon and midnight. Check back this afternoon, after today's 12noon run of the models. The storm will be 36 hours out and thus a better chance of accurate predictions.

Minor disagreement: The models are initialized at 0Z and 12Z which is 8PM and 8AM. US Models are additionally run at 6 and 18Z. Results come out 2-5 hours after the model initialization.

Each of the models had different assumptions. You want to see agreement, or at least consistent disagreement. I am now starting see the consistent disagreement.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The European model which is generally the best is predicting 8 to 12 inches.

Euro model is not the best. It is a good model for Medium range forecasts. The US has updated the computer infrastructures so no now the GFS may be better. Also, for short range, the NAM is more precise (if you adjust for its biases). There are technical reasons why: factors such as time step size and grid spacing for the finite difference codes.

Other models that adapt the grids to the atmospheric conditions (more grid points where things are unstable) have proven useful, but this is counter to the NWS mission of uniform coverage.

So what are the best models saying?

Someone quick! Get me the best models!

They are all here:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/12-mid-atlantic/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The European model which is generally the best is predicting 8 to 12 inches.

Euro model is not the best. It is a good model for Medium range forecasts. The US has updated the computer infrastructures so no now the GFS may be better. Also, for short range, the NAM is more precise (if you adjust for its biases). There are technical reasons why: factors such as time step size and grid spacing for the finite difference codes.

Other models that adapt the grids to the atmospheric conditions (more grid points where things are unstable) have proven useful, but this is counter to the NWS mission of uniform coverage.

So what are the best models saying?

Someone quick! Get me the best models!

They are all here:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/12-mid-atlantic/

Thanks for the link. I have no idea what I'm seeing here or where on this site I should be looking. Can anyone provide a way to get the basic readings for a weather enthusiast who knows zero about reading models. I'd love to be able to check this stuff for myself instead of waiting on others to share the info.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My due date is Tuesday. I know chances are I won't go into labor on my due date but Christ!

Huh? No, Christ did not plan a snowstorm on your due date.

[Anonymous]

Read the March 13/14th PSU Storm thread. That's where the mets (and enthusiasts) are discussing the model runs.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49821-march-1314th-psu-storm/

[Anonymous]

I'm so missing regular weather updates from penguinsix.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The European model which is generally the best is predicting 8 to 12 inches.

Euro model is not the best. It is a good model for Medium range forecasts. The US has updated the computer infrastructures so no now the GFS may be better. Also, for short range, the NAM is more precise (if you adjust for its biases). There are technical reasons why: factors such as time step size and grid spacing for the finite difference codes.

Other models that adapt the grids to the atmospheric conditions (more grid points where things are unstable) have proven useful, but this is counter to the NWS mission of uniform coverage.

So what are the best models saying?

Someone quick! Get me the best models!

They are all here:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/12-mid-atlantic/

Thanks for the link. I have no idea what I'm seeing here or where on this site I should be looking. Can anyone provide a way to get the basic readings for a weather enthusiast who knows zero about reading models. I'd love to be able to check this stuff for myself instead of waiting on others to share the info.

PP, this is what meteororoligists do: they look at the models and interpret them based on their extensive experience, knowledge and training. Then they present it in a way that you can understand it. There's no "basic readings" short-cut.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

What time are they saying it's starting Monday? I have a 5:30 drs appointment I've been waiting for for weeks, I don't want to reschedule....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Sorry for the small image. This one is better.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What time are they saying it's starting Monday? I have a 5:30 drs appointment I've been waiting for for weeks, I don't want to reschedule....

Should be fine.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

[Anonymous]

Good morning all! How is it possible that just last night, it was reported again as a non- event, wintry mix, and this morning we are full on Nor'Easter?!?
Gotta love the crazy weather here!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Good morning all! How is it possible that just last night, it was reported again as a non- event, wintry mix, and this morning we are full on Nor'Easter?!?
Gotta love the crazy weather here!

I never saw it reported as a "non-event." Where did you see that last night?
-DC resident

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Good morning all! How is it possible that just last night, it was reported again as a non- event, wintry mix, and this morning we are full on Nor'Easter?!?
Gotta love the crazy weather here!

I never saw it reported as a "non-event." Where did you see that last night?
-DC resident

Mthey are mistaken. It was never a non event. Models yesterday had it more in the 8-12 range and today seem to be back up on 12-16.