90th percentile

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m shocked at how many people on here seem to think that only the best and brightest can succeed at top schools. It may be true that kids need to be that to get into those schools, but most people who have been to one admit that it’s not that hard to get good grades there.

I don't get this, either. Have college curricula changed much during the past decade?

I was in a PhD program at Harvard and TA-ing many classes. The idea that these classes are so unbelievably hard that 99.9 percentile kids are struggling to keep up sounds insane to me. It was really not that hard. The kids were smart (especially premeds) but not once in a lifetime geniuses. If you came to classes, read the textbook, did the practice problems, you got an A. A+ was another story, and that was difficult.

U.S. colleges, on average, have become less difficult and it can be argued that they do not push students as much as they did in the past. The average GPA at Harvard in 1966 was 2.8. By 1990 it was 3.3. Today, it may be nearer to 3.8. This grade inflation holds to differing levels across the board at colleges. It is most acute at the most selective. The same pattern can be seen at schools like UVA. At the same time, studies have shown that the number of study hours has declined.

https://gradeinflation.com/Harvard.html
https://gradeinflation.com/

This is what I thought but now people are reporting from the trenches that their "99.9 percentile kid is struggling to keep up at their Ivy". Maybe kids are more brilliant now?

My perfect gpa/test score, top HS rigor, no rank but tough nationally ranked school at a so-called “easy A” Ivy and working their butt off. Maybe some majors, but I’m not seeing it.

That is a data point, but the huge upward trend in GPA doesn't lie

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m shocked at how many people on here seem to think that only the best and brightest can succeed at top schools. It may be true that kids need to be that to get into those schools, but most people who have been to one admit that it’s not that hard to get good grades there.

I don't get this, either. Have college curricula changed much during the past decade?

I was in a PhD program at Harvard and TA-ing many classes. The idea that these classes are so unbelievably hard that 99.9 percentile kids are struggling to keep up sounds insane to me. It was really not that hard. The kids were smart (especially premeds) but not once in a lifetime geniuses. If you came to classes, read the textbook, did the practice problems, you got an A. A+ was another story, and that was difficult.

U.S. colleges, on average, have become less difficult and it can be argued that they do not push students as much as they did in the past. The average GPA at Harvard in 1966 was 2.8. By 1990 it was 3.3. Today, it may be nearer to 3.8. This grade inflation holds to differing levels across the board at colleges. It is most acute at the most selective. The same pattern can be seen at schools like UVA. At the same time, studies have shown that the number of study hours has declined.

https://gradeinflation.com/Harvard.html
https://gradeinflation.com/

This is what I thought but now people are reporting from the trenches that their "99.9 percentile kid is struggling to keep up at their Ivy". Maybe kids are more brilliant now?

The previous quotes almost all say 99th percentiles (ave ivy kid) work hard but can keep up. 99.9 certainly does not have to struggle to "keep up" --cannot find anyone who said that and if they did they do not have first hand experience. The classes are still hard & much more rigorous than other schools: aligns with personal and family experience ivy/+ as students and professors.
Kids individually are not more brilliant, but the range of students has absolutely changed! Our kids' college shared data of the SAT range of enrolled students in fall 2020(ie pre-TO numbers because the TO numbers were not out) and then showed the matriculating class 1990, showing percentiles not scores(the sat scores have been recentered). The top 1/4 of students in 1990 were 98-99th%ile, now more than 75% of enrolled students are that. The bottom 25% used to be 90th%ile , now it is 98th. The point the dean made was explaining in part why the mental health is harder --much more competition with so many students who are used to being at the very top, rather than merely 1/4 of the student body. Plus, they noted that the top 25% of this college in the 1990s soared into medical school easily(1994 national med accept rate was the same as now): the next 25% got in but not nearly 100%, and it was rare to get in if you were below average at this school back then. They have made the grading more in line with "peer" schools(they named other ivies) in the last few years because they want the 98-99th%ile students to all have a shot at med school if they want it considering this group is capable easily: no more C+ average in orgo, now it is a B+/B average, such that over 75% get B range grades in what formerly were "weedouts". My other kid who does not attend this ivy, but attends another T10 and is premed there, has been told almost the exact same thing by the premed advisors: as long as you are not in the bottom 1/4 you can get into medical school easily, they try to make sure LESS than 1/4 get Cs and it is even less once you move past the first 3 semesters, into upper level science/stem. For those in the bottom 1/4 after the first year who still want it, they put them on a slow down summer classes program or a 4+1 slow down and give them resources to have a shot at med school after a couple years out.

TLDR, the students now ARE smarter than the students in the 1990s, and the grade inflation at top schools is purposeful--one or two top schools started it and now all have followed--so that all students who are 99th%iles now can have excellent results even in competitive tracks.

Why are there so many more 99th percentile students now so now there is no space for even 95th percentile much less 90th...? Is it population growth? International students?

There are just a lot of 99th percentile students. It's just a fact of math. Of the at least 2.5 million students entering college every year in the US, there will 25,000 such students. We're not even at the peak of college enrollment right now because that happened back around 2010.

But of course there is space for kids who are in the 95th or 90th percentile or lower! There is plenty of room because there are close to 6000 colleges in the US. Notice that the top 10% of those make up a whopping 600 colleges to choose from! I wonder if anyone else sees the irony in people complaining that the top 1% of colleges should admit 90th percentile students, when many of these same parents are gunning for the top elite schools and would be dissatisfied with anything lower than a T50 or T100 college for their kids?

[Anonymous]

Not all the 99th percentile kids have matching GPAs. Our 99+ kid did not even bother applying to Top 20 schools. GPA was too low to make it worth the application fees.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m shocked at how many people on here seem to think that only the best and brightest can succeed at top schools. It may be true that kids need to be that to get into those schools, but most people who have been to one admit that it’s not that hard to get good grades there.

I don't get this, either. Have college curricula changed much during the past decade?

I was in a PhD program at Harvard and TA-ing many classes. The idea that these classes are so unbelievably hard that 99.9 percentile kids are struggling to keep up sounds insane to me. It was really not that hard. The kids were smart (especially premeds) but not once in a lifetime geniuses. If you came to classes, read the textbook, did the practice problems, you got an A. A+ was another story, and that was difficult.

U.S. colleges, on average, have become less difficult and it can be argued that they do not push students as much as they did in the past. The average GPA at Harvard in 1966 was 2.8. By 1990 it was 3.3. Today, it may be nearer to 3.8. This grade inflation holds to differing levels across the board at colleges. It is most acute at the most selective. The same pattern can be seen at schools like UVA. At the same time, studies have shown that the number of study hours has declined.

https://gradeinflation.com/Harvard.html
https://gradeinflation.com/

This is what I thought but now people are reporting from the trenches that their "99.9 percentile kid is struggling to keep up at their Ivy". Maybe kids are more brilliant now?

The previous quotes almost all say 99th percentiles (ave ivy kid) work hard but can keep up. 99.9 certainly does not have to struggle to "keep up" --cannot find anyone who said that and if they did they do not have first hand experience. The classes are still hard & much more rigorous than other schools: aligns with personal and family experience ivy/+ as students and professors.
Kids individually are not more brilliant, but the range of students has absolutely changed! Our kids' college shared data of the SAT range of enrolled students in fall 2020(ie pre-TO numbers because the TO numbers were not out) and then showed the matriculating class 1990, showing percentiles not scores(the sat scores have been recentered). The top 1/4 of students in 1990 were 98-99th%ile, now more than 75% of enrolled students are that. The bottom 25% used to be 90th%ile , now it is 98th. The point the dean made was explaining in part why the mental health is harder --much more competition with so many students who are used to being at the very top, rather than merely 1/4 of the student body. Plus, they noted that the top 25% of this college in the 1990s soared into medical school easily(1994 national med accept rate was the same as now): the next 25% got in but not nearly 100%, and it was rare to get in if you were below average at this school back then. They have made the grading more in line with "peer" schools(they named other ivies) in the last few years because they want the 98-99th%ile students to all have a shot at med school if they want it considering this group is capable easily: no more C+ average in orgo, now it is a B+/B average, such that over 75% get B range grades in what formerly were "weedouts". My other kid who does not attend this ivy, but attends another T10 and is premed there, has been told almost the exact same thing by the premed advisors: as long as you are not in the bottom 1/4 you can get into medical school easily, they try to make sure LESS than 1/4 get Cs and it is even less once you move past the first 3 semesters, into upper level science/stem. For those in the bottom 1/4 after the first year who still want it, they put them on a slow down summer classes program or a 4+1 slow down and give them resources to have a shot at med school after a couple years out.

TLDR, the students now ARE smarter than the students in the 1990s, and the grade inflation at top schools is purposeful--one or two top schools started it and now all have followed--so that all students who are 99th%iles now can have excellent results even in competitive tracks.

Why are there so many more 99th percentile students now so now there is no space for even 95th percentile much less 90th...? Is it population growth? International students?

There are just a lot of 99th percentile students. It's just a fact of math. Of the at least 2.5 million students entering college every year in the US, there will 25,000 such students. We're not even at the peak of college enrollment right now because that happened back around 2010.

But of course there is space for kids who are in the 95th or 90th percentile or lower! There is plenty of room because there are close to 6000 colleges in the US. Notice that the top 10% of those make up a whopping 600 colleges to choose from! I wonder if anyone else sees the irony in people complaining that the top 1% of colleges should admit 90th percentile students, when many of these same parents are gunning for the top elite schools and would be dissatisfied with anything lower than a T50 or T100 college for their kids?

That's fine - I am just wondering why it was possible 30 years ago to be at Harvard as a 90th percentile (someone referenced something like this a few pages ago) while today there is not enough space for 99thers and 90thers are entirely out of the question. Were top students spread more widely or is it just population growth?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m shocked at how many people on here seem to think that only the best and brightest can succeed at top schools. It may be true that kids need to be that to get into those schools, but most people who have been to one admit that it’s not that hard to get good grades there.

I don't get this, either. Have college curricula changed much during the past decade?

I was in a PhD program at Harvard and TA-ing many classes. The idea that these classes are so unbelievably hard that 99.9 percentile kids are struggling to keep up sounds insane to me. It was really not that hard. The kids were smart (especially premeds) but not once in a lifetime geniuses. If you came to classes, read the textbook, did the practice problems, you got an A. A+ was another story, and that was difficult.

I can sort of believe that because Harvard has been grade inflated for a long time. But most of those undergrads were probably easily scoring 99th percentile on their SATs though, and a 90th percentile kid would be more unusual. Perhaps this is why they found the courses easy. Moreover, 99.9th percentile is just 1/1000 kids, very smart, and probably more typical of MIT undergrads. This is not the definition of a once in a lifetime genius.

Yes, except people are now saying these schools are packed with 99.99 percentilers. Maybe they are. Maybe I just need to adjust how 99.9 and 99.99 percentilers present in the wild.

There are a lot of the 99+ kids in the wild, especially in this area. No one would suspect kids like my oldest to be one—who is quiet, performs adequately on things that don’t interest him, and lacks the ability to effectively communicate because a lot of things are intuitive (plus as an URM 99+% on SATs is not an assumption most people make). I’m not saying my kid deserves to get into the most selective schools, but he does “exist.” Because I can easily see how someone could see him as average, I have to believe there are many, many more low key kids like him out there, and there are even some who _care_ and are intellectually curious. That smaller set are the kids are filling the top schools.

Thank you. Is your child, for example, getting As on every single test in MS and HS?

Not on every test, for reasons related to that kid, like inability to buy in and accept the importance of timeliness, hard work, and repetition. (My kid gets 100% on tests on which other students struggle and gets mediocre grades on things he doesn’t put in the time, just like everyone else, and I continue work at accepting that). But my point is by definition for every 100 kids, one is at 99% and in DC there is probably a disproportionate share given the parent population.

I’m not even saying Harvard needs to take all 99% kids. I’m just saying that they may be lurking around under the radar at your kid’s school.

Absolutely. I am just curious to hear what they look like. Thanks for sharing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, kids who score in the 90th percentile can get through the toughest schools. The universities know this. That is why athletes can get into the best schools and most do quite well.

Most athletes take "easy majors", get tons of tutoring/assistance, and take 5 years to graduate.

My kid attended a Jesuit university with a T20 BB team. Had 2 of the "stars athletes" in classes. They were definately Not smart

I am not saying that the schools only take athletes that are in the 90th percentile, I am saying the if they have a good runner who is in the 90th percentile, it is an nEASY recruit to the best schools. My point is that 90th percentile going to Harvard, division 1, should be fine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m shocked at how many people on here seem to think that only the best and brightest can succeed at top schools. It may be true that kids need to be that to get into those schools, but most people who have been to one admit that it’s not that hard to get good grades there.

I don't get this, either. Have college curricula changed much during the past decade?

I was in a PhD program at Harvard and TA-ing many classes. The idea that these classes are so unbelievably hard that 99.9 percentile kids are struggling to keep up sounds insane to me. It was really not that hard. The kids were smart (especially premeds) but not once in a lifetime geniuses. If you came to classes, read the textbook, did the practice problems, you got an A. A+ was another story, and that was difficult.

U.S. colleges, on average, have become less difficult and it can be argued that they do not push students as much as they did in the past. The average GPA at Harvard in 1966 was 2.8. By 1990 it was 3.3. Today, it may be nearer to 3.8. This grade inflation holds to differing levels across the board at colleges. It is most acute at the most selective. The same pattern can be seen at schools like UVA. At the same time, studies have shown that the number of study hours has declined.

https://gradeinflation.com/Harvard.html
https://gradeinflation.com/

This is what I thought but now people are reporting from the trenches that their "99.9 percentile kid is struggling to keep up at their Ivy". Maybe kids are more brilliant now?

The previous quotes almost all say 99th percentiles (ave ivy kid) work hard but can keep up. 99.9 certainly does not have to struggle to "keep up" --cannot find anyone who said that and if they did they do not have first hand experience. The classes are still hard & much more rigorous than other schools: aligns with personal and family experience ivy/+ as students and professors.
Kids individually are not more brilliant, but the range of students has absolutely changed! Our kids' college shared data of the SAT range of enrolled students in fall 2020(ie pre-TO numbers because the TO numbers were not out) and then showed the matriculating class 1990, showing percentiles not scores(the sat scores have been recentered). The top 1/4 of students in 1990 were 98-99th%ile, now more than 75% of enrolled students are that. The bottom 25% used to be 90th%ile , now it is 98th. The point the dean made was explaining in part why the mental health is harder --much more competition with so many students who are used to being at the very top, rather than merely 1/4 of the student body. Plus, they noted that the top 25% of this college in the 1990s soared into medical school easily(1994 national med accept rate was the same as now): the next 25% got in but not nearly 100%, and it was rare to get in if you were below average at this school back then. They have made the grading more in line with "peer" schools(they named other ivies) in the last few years because they want the 98-99th%ile students to all have a shot at med school if they want it considering this group is capable easily: no more C+ average in orgo, now it is a B+/B average, such that over 75% get B range grades in what formerly were "weedouts". My other kid who does not attend this ivy, but attends another T10 and is premed there, has been told almost the exact same thing by the premed advisors: as long as you are not in the bottom 1/4 you can get into medical school easily, they try to make sure LESS than 1/4 get Cs and it is even less once you move past the first 3 semesters, into upper level science/stem. For those in the bottom 1/4 after the first year who still want it, they put them on a slow down summer classes program or a 4+1 slow down and give them resources to have a shot at med school after a couple years out.

TLDR, the students now ARE smarter than the students in the 1990s, and the grade inflation at top schools is purposeful--one or two top schools started it and now all have followed--so that all students who are 99th%iles now can have excellent results even in competitive tracks.

Why are there so many more 99th percentile students now so now there is no space for even 95th percentile much less 90th...? Is it population growth? International students?

There are just a lot of 99th percentile students. It's just a fact of math. Of the at least 2.5 million students entering college every year in the US, there will 25,000 such students. We're not even at the peak of college enrollment right now because that happened back around 2010.

But of course there is space for kids who are in the 95th or 90th percentile or lower! There is plenty of room because there are close to 6000 colleges in the US. Notice that the top 10% of those make up a whopping 600 colleges to choose from! I wonder if anyone else sees the irony in people complaining that the top 1% of colleges should admit 90th percentile students, when many of these same parents are gunning for the top elite schools and would be dissatisfied with anything lower than a T50 or T100 college for their kids?

That's fine - I am just wondering why it was possible 30 years ago to be at Harvard as a 90th percentile (someone referenced something like this a few pages ago) while today there is not enough space for 99thers and 90thers are entirely out of the question. Were top students spread more widely or is it just population growth?

Learn the difference between "has a chance" and "guaranteed".

And also population growth and also common app growth

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m shocked at how many people on here seem to think that only the best and brightest can succeed at top schools. It may be true that kids need to be that to get into those schools, but most people who have been to one admit that it’s not that hard to get good grades there.

I don't get this, either. Have college curricula changed much during the past decade?

I was in a PhD program at Harvard and TA-ing many classes. The idea that these classes are so unbelievably hard that 99.9 percentile kids are struggling to keep up sounds insane to me. It was really not that hard. The kids were smart (especially premeds) but not once in a lifetime geniuses. If you came to classes, read the textbook, did the practice problems, you got an A. A+ was another story, and that was difficult.

U.S. colleges, on average, have become less difficult and it can be argued that they do not push students as much as they did in the past. The average GPA at Harvard in 1966 was 2.8. By 1990 it was 3.3. Today, it may be nearer to 3.8. This grade inflation holds to differing levels across the board at colleges. It is most acute at the most selective. The same pattern can be seen at schools like UVA. At the same time, studies have shown that the number of study hours has declined.

https://gradeinflation.com/Harvard.html
https://gradeinflation.com/

This is what I thought but now people are reporting from the trenches that their "99.9 percentile kid is struggling to keep up at their Ivy". Maybe kids are more brilliant now?

The previous quotes almost all say 99th percentiles (ave ivy kid) work hard but can keep up. 99.9 certainly does not have to struggle to "keep up" --cannot find anyone who said that and if they did they do not have first hand experience. The classes are still hard & much more rigorous than other schools: aligns with personal and family experience ivy/+ as students and professors.
Kids individually are not more brilliant, but the range of students has absolutely changed! Our kids' college shared data of the SAT range of enrolled students in fall 2020(ie pre-TO numbers because the TO numbers were not out) and then showed the matriculating class 1990, showing percentiles not scores(the sat scores have been recentered). The top 1/4 of students in 1990 were 98-99th%ile, now more than 75% of enrolled students are that. The bottom 25% used to be 90th%ile , now it is 98th. The point the dean made was explaining in part why the mental health is harder --much more competition with so many students who are used to being at the very top, rather than merely 1/4 of the student body. Plus, they noted that the top 25% of this college in the 1990s soared into medical school easily(1994 national med accept rate was the same as now): the next 25% got in but not nearly 100%, and it was rare to get in if you were below average at this school back then. They have made the grading more in line with "peer" schools(they named other ivies) in the last few years because they want the 98-99th%ile students to all have a shot at med school if they want it considering this group is capable easily: no more C+ average in orgo, now it is a B+/B average, such that over 75% get B range grades in what formerly were "weedouts". My other kid who does not attend this ivy, but attends another T10 and is premed there, has been told almost the exact same thing by the premed advisors: as long as you are not in the bottom 1/4 you can get into medical school easily, they try to make sure LESS than 1/4 get Cs and it is even less once you move past the first 3 semesters, into upper level science/stem. For those in the bottom 1/4 after the first year who still want it, they put them on a slow down summer classes program or a 4+1 slow down and give them resources to have a shot at med school after a couple years out.

TLDR, the students now ARE smarter than the students in the 1990s, and the grade inflation at top schools is purposeful--one or two top schools started it and now all have followed--so that all students who are 99th%iles now can have excellent results even in competitive tracks.

Why are there so many more 99th percentile students now so now there is no space for even 95th percentile much less 90th...? Is it population growth? International students?

There are just a lot of 99th percentile students. It's just a fact of math. Of the at least 2.5 million students entering college every year in the US, there will 25,000 such students. We're not even at the peak of college enrollment right now because that happened back around 2010.

But of course there is space for kids who are in the 95th or 90th percentile or lower! There is plenty of room because there are close to 6000 colleges in the US. Notice that the top 10% of those make up a whopping 600 colleges to choose from! I wonder if anyone else sees the irony in people complaining that the top 1% of colleges should admit 90th percentile students, when many of these same parents are gunning for the top elite schools and would be dissatisfied with anything lower than a T50 or T100 college for their kids?

That's fine - I am just wondering why it was possible 30 years ago to be at Harvard as a 90th percentile (someone referenced something like this a few pages ago) while today there is not enough space for 99thers and 90thers are entirely out of the question. Were top students spread more widely or is it just population growth?

They were definitely spread more widely before. Today, parents and kids are more ambitious about the college brand and more willing to apply all over the country. Plus, the common app makes it easy to apply everywhete.

My husband was one of those unicorns with a 1600 (which was way higher than 99th percentile back in the day) and valedictorian of his class. He did not even apply to an Ivy. Of the 3 schools he applied to, he ended up selecting Duke, which was not as selective or elite back then, and that was because he never wanted to be that far from home. My score was not perfect but also 99th percentile and my grades decent, and I recall only applying to 5 schools, none of which was an Ivy. Neither of our sets of parents were Ivy obsessed. They were quite proud when we went to an elite science school for our PhDs (where we met), but school rank was never an obsession for them, like it is for much of dcum. I definitely agree the landscape is more competitive now but it’s not because kids are on the whole smarter, but because parents and kids are more intense about getting into dream colleges.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m shocked at how many people on here seem to think that only the best and brightest can succeed at top schools. It may be true that kids need to be that to get into those schools, but most people who have been to one admit that it’s not that hard to get good grades there.

I don't get this, either. Have college curricula changed much during the past decade?

I was in a PhD program at Harvard and TA-ing many classes. The idea that these classes are so unbelievably hard that 99.9 percentile kids are struggling to keep up sounds insane to me. It was really not that hard. The kids were smart (especially premeds) but not once in a lifetime geniuses. If you came to classes, read the textbook, did the practice problems, you got an A. A+ was another story, and that was difficult.

U.S. colleges, on average, have become less difficult and it can be argued that they do not push students as much as they did in the past. The average GPA at Harvard in 1966 was 2.8. By 1990 it was 3.3. Today, it may be nearer to 3.8. This grade inflation holds to differing levels across the board at colleges. It is most acute at the most selective. The same pattern can be seen at schools like UVA. At the same time, studies have shown that the number of study hours has declined.

https://gradeinflation.com/Harvard.html
https://gradeinflation.com/

This is what I thought but now people are reporting from the trenches that their "99.9 percentile kid is struggling to keep up at their Ivy". Maybe kids are more brilliant now?

The previous quotes almost all say 99th percentiles (ave ivy kid) work hard but can keep up. 99.9 certainly does not have to struggle to "keep up" --cannot find anyone who said that and if they did they do not have first hand experience. The classes are still hard & much more rigorous than other schools: aligns with personal and family experience ivy/+ as students and professors.
Kids individually are not more brilliant, but the range of students has absolutely changed! Our kids' college shared data of the SAT range of enrolled students in fall 2020(ie pre-TO numbers because the TO numbers were not out) and then showed the matriculating class 1990, showing percentiles not scores(the sat scores have been recentered). The top 1/4 of students in 1990 were 98-99th%ile, now more than 75% of enrolled students are that. The bottom 25% used to be 90th%ile , now it is 98th. The point the dean made was explaining in part why the mental health is harder --much more competition with so many students who are used to being at the very top, rather than merely 1/4 of the student body. Plus, they noted that the top 25% of this college in the 1990s soared into medical school easily(1994 national med accept rate was the same as now): the next 25% got in but not nearly 100%, and it was rare to get in if you were below average at this school back then. They have made the grading more in line with "peer" schools(they named other ivies) in the last few years because they want the 98-99th%ile students to all have a shot at med school if they want it considering this group is capable easily: no more C+ average in orgo, now it is a B+/B average, such that over 75% get B range grades in what formerly were "weedouts". My other kid who does not attend this ivy, but attends another T10 and is premed there, has been told almost the exact same thing by the premed advisors: as long as you are not in the bottom 1/4 you can get into medical school easily, they try to make sure LESS than 1/4 get Cs and it is even less once you move past the first 3 semesters, into upper level science/stem. For those in the bottom 1/4 after the first year who still want it, they put them on a slow down summer classes program or a 4+1 slow down and give them resources to have a shot at med school after a couple years out.

TLDR, the students now ARE smarter than the students in the 1990s, and the grade inflation at top schools is purposeful--one or two top schools started it and now all have followed--so that all students who are 99th%iles now can have excellent results even in competitive tracks.

Why are there so many more 99th percentile students now so now there is no space for even 95th percentile much less 90th...? Is it population growth? International students?

There are just a lot of 99th percentile students. It's just a fact of math. Of the at least 2.5 million students entering college every year in the US, there will 25,000 such students. We're not even at the peak of college enrollment right now because that happened back around 2010.

But of course there is space for kids who are in the 95th or 90th percentile or lower! There is plenty of room because there are close to 6000 colleges in the US. Notice that the top 10% of those make up a whopping 600 colleges to choose from! I wonder if anyone else sees the irony in people complaining that the top 1% of colleges should admit 90th percentile students, when many of these same parents are gunning for the top elite schools and would be dissatisfied with anything lower than a T50 or T100 college for their kids?

That's fine - I am just wondering why it was possible 30 years ago to be at Harvard as a 90th percentile (someone referenced something like this a few pages ago) while today there is not enough space for 99thers and 90thers are entirely out of the question. Were top students spread more widely or is it just population growth?

Learn the difference between "has a chance" and "guaranteed".

And also population growth and also common app growth

Right… even back in the olden days I don’t think 90th percentile scores were ever common even if “possible” at a top school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m shocked at how many people on here seem to think that only the best and brightest can succeed at top schools. It may be true that kids need to be that to get into those schools, but most people who have been to one admit that it’s not that hard to get good grades there.

I don't get this, either. Have college curricula changed much during the past decade?

I was in a PhD program at Harvard and TA-ing many classes. The idea that these classes are so unbelievably hard that 99.9 percentile kids are struggling to keep up sounds insane to me. It was really not that hard. The kids were smart (especially premeds) but not once in a lifetime geniuses. If you came to classes, read the textbook, did the practice problems, you got an A. A+ was another story, and that was difficult.

I can sort of believe that because Harvard has been grade inflated for a long time. But most of those undergrads were probably easily scoring 99th percentile on their SATs though, and a 90th percentile kid would be more unusual. Perhaps this is why they found the courses easy. Moreover, 99.9th percentile is just 1/1000 kids, very smart, and probably more typical of MIT undergrads. This is not the definition of a once in a lifetime genius.

Yes, except people are now saying these schools are packed with 99.99 percentilers. Maybe they are. Maybe I just need to adjust how 99.9 and 99.99 percentilers present in the wild.

There are a lot of the 99+ kids in the wild, especially in this area. No one would suspect kids like my oldest to be one—who is quiet, performs adequately on things that don’t interest him, and lacks the ability to effectively communicate because a lot of things are intuitive (plus as an URM 99+% on SATs is not an assumption most people make). I’m not saying my kid deserves to get into the most selective schools, but he does “exist.” Because I can easily see how someone could see him as average, I have to believe there are many, many more low key kids like him out there, and there are even some who _care_ and are intellectually curious. That smaller set are the kids are filling the top schools.

Thank you. Is your child, for example, getting As on every single test in MS and HS?

DP. Yes. Both mine did.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m shocked at how many people on here seem to think that only the best and brightest can succeed at top schools. It may be true that kids need to be that to get into those schools, but most people who have been to one admit that it’s not that hard to get good grades there.

I don't get this, either. Have college curricula changed much during the past decade?

I was in a PhD program at Harvard and TA-ing many classes. The idea that these classes are so unbelievably hard that 99.9 percentile kids are struggling to keep up sounds insane to me. It was really not that hard. The kids were smart (especially premeds) but not once in a lifetime geniuses. If you came to classes, read the textbook, did the practice problems, you got an A. A+ was another story, and that was difficult.

U.S. colleges, on average, have become less difficult and it can be argued that they do not push students as much as they did in the past. The average GPA at Harvard in 1966 was 2.8. By 1990 it was 3.3. Today, it may be nearer to 3.8. This grade inflation holds to differing levels across the board at colleges. It is most acute at the most selective. The same pattern can be seen at schools like UVA. At the same time, studies have shown that the number of study hours has declined.

https://gradeinflation.com/Harvard.html
https://gradeinflation.com/

This is what I thought but now people are reporting from the trenches that their "99.9 percentile kid is struggling to keep up at their Ivy". Maybe kids are more brilliant now?

The previous quotes almost all say 99th percentiles (ave ivy kid) work hard but can keep up. 99.9 certainly does not have to struggle to "keep up" --cannot find anyone who said that and if they did they do not have first hand experience. The classes are still hard & much more rigorous than other schools: aligns with personal and family experience ivy/+ as students and professors.
Kids individually are not more brilliant, but the range of students has absolutely changed! Our kids' college shared data of the SAT range of enrolled students in fall 2020(ie pre-TO numbers because the TO numbers were not out) and then showed the matriculating class 1990, showing percentiles not scores(the sat scores have been recentered). The top 1/4 of students in 1990 were 98-99th%ile, now more than 75% of enrolled students are that. The bottom 25% used to be 90th%ile , now it is 98th. The point the dean made was explaining in part why the mental health is harder --much more competition with so many students who are used to being at the very top, rather than merely 1/4 of the student body. Plus, they noted that the top 25% of this college in the 1990s soared into medical school easily(1994 national med accept rate was the same as now): the next 25% got in but not nearly 100%, and it was rare to get in if you were below average at this school back then. They have made the grading more in line with "peer" schools(they named other ivies) in the last few years because they want the 98-99th%ile students to all have a shot at med school if they want it considering this group is capable easily: no more C+ average in orgo, now it is a B+/B average, such that over 75% get B range grades in what formerly were "weedouts". My other kid who does not attend this ivy, but attends another T10 and is premed there, has been told almost the exact same thing by the premed advisors: as long as you are not in the bottom 1/4 you can get into medical school easily, they try to make sure LESS than 1/4 get Cs and it is even less once you move past the first 3 semesters, into upper level science/stem. For those in the bottom 1/4 after the first year who still want it, they put them on a slow down summer classes program or a 4+1 slow down and give them resources to have a shot at med school after a couple years out.

TLDR, the students now ARE smarter than the students in the 1990s, and the grade inflation at top schools is purposeful--one or two top schools started it and now all have followed--so that all students who are 99th%iles now can have excellent results even in competitive tracks.

Why are there so many more 99th percentile students now so now there is no space for even 95th percentile much less 90th...? Is it population growth? International students?

There are just a lot of 99th percentile students. It's just a fact of math. Of the at least 2.5 million students entering college every year in the US, there will 25,000 such students. We're not even at the peak of college enrollment right now because that happened back around 2010.

But of course there is space for kids who are in the 95th or 90th percentile or lower! There is plenty of room because there are close to 6000 colleges in the US. Notice that the top 10% of those make up a whopping 600 colleges to choose from! I wonder if anyone else sees the irony in people complaining that the top 1% of colleges should admit 90th percentile students, when many of these same parents are gunning for the top elite schools and would be dissatisfied with anything lower than a T50 or T100 college for their kids?

That's fine - I am just wondering why it was possible 30 years ago to be at Harvard as a 90th percentile (someone referenced something like this a few pages ago) while today there is not enough space for 99thers and 90thers are entirely out of the question. Were top students spread more widely or is it just population growth?

They were definitely spread more widely before. Today, parents and kids are more ambitious about the college brand and more willing to apply all over the country. Plus, the common app makes it easy to apply everywhete.

My husband was one of those unicorns with a 1600 (which was way higher than 99th percentile back in the day) and valedictorian of his class. He did not even apply to an Ivy. Of the 3 schools he applied to, he ended up selecting Duke, which was not as selective or elite back then, and that was because he never wanted to be that far from home. My score was not perfect but also 99th percentile and my grades decent, and I recall only applying to 5 schools, none of which was an Ivy. Neither of our sets of parents were Ivy obsessed. They were quite proud when we went to an elite science school for our PhDs (where we met), but school rank was never an obsession for them, like it is for much of dcum. I definitely agree the landscape is more competitive now but it’s not because kids are on the whole smarter, but because parents and kids are more intense about getting into dream colleges.

Thank you, this is very interesting. So it seems that students are now sorting themselves according to, roughly, us news rankings, therefore resulting in more homogenous classes, at least in terms of ability, and increasing differences between the schools with different ranks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m shocked at how many people on here seem to think that only the best and brightest can succeed at top schools. It may be true that kids need to be that to get into those schools, but most people who have been to one admit that it’s not that hard to get good grades there.

I don't get this, either. Have college curricula changed much during the past decade?

I was in a PhD program at Harvard and TA-ing many classes. The idea that these classes are so unbelievably hard that 99.9 percentile kids are struggling to keep up sounds insane to me. It was really not that hard. The kids were smart (especially premeds) but not once in a lifetime geniuses. If you came to classes, read the textbook, did the practice problems, you got an A. A+ was another story, and that was difficult.

U.S. colleges, on average, have become less difficult and it can be argued that they do not push students as much as they did in the past. The average GPA at Harvard in 1966 was 2.8. By 1990 it was 3.3. Today, it may be nearer to 3.8. This grade inflation holds to differing levels across the board at colleges. It is most acute at the most selective. The same pattern can be seen at schools like UVA. At the same time, studies have shown that the number of study hours has declined.

https://gradeinflation.com/Harvard.html
https://gradeinflation.com/

This is what I thought but now people are reporting from the trenches that their "99.9 percentile kid is struggling to keep up at their Ivy". Maybe kids are more brilliant now?

The previous quotes almost all say 99th percentiles (ave ivy kid) work hard but can keep up. 99.9 certainly does not have to struggle to "keep up" --cannot find anyone who said that and if they did they do not have first hand experience. The classes are still hard & much more rigorous than other schools: aligns with personal and family experience ivy/+ as students and professors.
Kids individually are not more brilliant, but the range of students has absolutely changed! Our kids' college shared data of the SAT range of enrolled students in fall 2020(ie pre-TO numbers because the TO numbers were not out) and then showed the matriculating class 1990, showing percentiles not scores(the sat scores have been recentered). The top 1/4 of students in 1990 were 98-99th%ile, now more than 75% of enrolled students are that. The bottom 25% used to be 90th%ile , now it is 98th. The point the dean made was explaining in part why the mental health is harder --much more competition with so many students who are used to being at the very top, rather than merely 1/4 of the student body. Plus, they noted that the top 25% of this college in the 1990s soared into medical school easily(1994 national med accept rate was the same as now): the next 25% got in but not nearly 100%, and it was rare to get in if you were below average at this school back then. They have made the grading more in line with "peer" schools(they named other ivies) in the last few years because they want the 98-99th%ile students to all have a shot at med school if they want it considering this group is capable easily: no more C+ average in orgo, now it is a B+/B average, such that over 75% get B range grades in what formerly were "weedouts". My other kid who does not attend this ivy, but attends another T10 and is premed there, has been told almost the exact same thing by the premed advisors: as long as you are not in the bottom 1/4 you can get into medical school easily, they try to make sure LESS than 1/4 get Cs and it is even less once you move past the first 3 semesters, into upper level science/stem. For those in the bottom 1/4 after the first year who still want it, they put them on a slow down summer classes program or a 4+1 slow down and give them resources to have a shot at med school after a couple years out.

TLDR, the students now ARE smarter than the students in the 1990s, and the grade inflation at top schools is purposeful--one or two top schools started it and now all have followed--so that all students who are 99th%iles now can have excellent results even in competitive tracks.

Why are there so many more 99th percentile students now so now there is no space for even 95th percentile much less 90th...? Is it population growth? International students?

There are just a lot of 99th percentile students. It's just a fact of math. Of the at least 2.5 million students entering college every year in the US, there will 25,000 such students. We're not even at the peak of college enrollment right now because that happened back around 2010.

But of course there is space for kids who are in the 95th or 90th percentile or lower! There is plenty of room because there are close to 6000 colleges in the US. Notice that the top 10% of those make up a whopping 600 colleges to choose from! I wonder if anyone else sees the irony in people complaining that the top 1% of colleges should admit 90th percentile students, when many of these same parents are gunning for the top elite schools and would be dissatisfied with anything lower than a T50 or T100 college for their kids?

That's fine - I am just wondering why it was possible 30 years ago to be at Harvard as a 90th percentile (someone referenced something like this a few pages ago) while today there is not enough space for 99thers and 90thers are entirely out of the question. Were top students spread more widely or is it just population growth?

Because fewer students aimed for the top. I was at a large suburban HS with 800 seniors. About 10 students went on to out-of-state privates. It’s not that everyone else was denied, they simply didn’t apply to selective schools.

But those students who did were very good.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Raygun was “good enough” to qualify for the Olympics… but I’m still not sure that was a good idea. Just saying.

I would say, for her, it probably was a good idea, overall.

So, yeah, if Harvard calls your 90th percentile kid, let them go there. "Doing well" is very subjective anyways. Many supersmart kids get crushed when they are #2. Meanwhile someone less brilliant could be happy with their lower GPA and better in using connections provided by the brand name school.

Well it provided a lot of humor for the world, I suppose.

There was a study showing that the lowest scoring stem majors at elite schools often abandoned their fields in college, even if they were more capable than the average stem major at a lower tier school. Such kids also get more positive attention and support from professors at lower tier schools than they would at elite schools, where the superstars get all the attention. So I don’t necessarily think it’s wise to just aim for the highest ranked school.

those kids needed to switch major.

Well they often do switch majors, but my point was that this is a shame, because they could still have excelled and ended up with a good stem career if they gone to school in a less competitive environment.

Perhaps, but wouldn't they come across those geniuses from other schools eventually? Or that suddenly doesn't matter?

I’m sure they must now and then. But still, the career outcomes (in STEM) are better for you if you’re a bigger fish in a small pond vs. a smaller fish in a big pond. Better mentorship and better opportunities at the outset, more appropriate class pace, etc. all help.

STEM is not for everyone. It's hard, and necessarily well paid. A lot of kids don't understand what science is until they get to college. There the learn that they don't actually like it, and are not particularly good at it.

I agree with you, and I wasn't trying to say that everyone can and should go into STEM careers. Just saying that the kids who would be bottom of their class at an elite STEM program don't fare as well as similar stats kids who are near the top of their programs at a less selective college. Bottom line: just because you could squeeze through the door of an elite institution doesn't mean that it's the best move.

Yes. If everyone who advises students understood this, there would be so much less mental health angst. Please parents do not push your kids to aim for schools that are not going to be a good fit! Be realistic and understand where your kid naturally is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m shocked at how many people on here seem to think that only the best and brightest can succeed at top schools. It may be true that kids need to be that to get into those schools, but most people who have been to one admit that it’s not that hard to get good grades there.

I don't get this, either. Have college curricula changed much during the past decade?

I was in a PhD program at Harvard and TA-ing many classes. The idea that these classes are so unbelievably hard that 99.9 percentile kids are struggling to keep up sounds insane to me. It was really not that hard. The kids were smart (especially premeds) but not once in a lifetime geniuses. If you came to classes, read the textbook, did the practice problems, you got an A. A+ was another story, and that was difficult.

U.S. colleges, on average, have become less difficult and it can be argued that they do not push students as much as they did in the past. The average GPA at Harvard in 1966 was 2.8. By 1990 it was 3.3. Today, it may be nearer to 3.8. This grade inflation holds to differing levels across the board at colleges. It is most acute at the most selective. The same pattern can be seen at schools like UVA. At the same time, studies have shown that the number of study hours has declined.

https://gradeinflation.com/Harvard.html
https://gradeinflation.com/

This is what I thought but now people are reporting from the trenches that their "99.9 percentile kid is struggling to keep up at their Ivy". Maybe kids are more brilliant now?

The previous quotes almost all say 99th percentiles (ave ivy kid) work hard but can keep up. 99.9 certainly does not have to struggle to "keep up" --cannot find anyone who said that and if they did they do not have first hand experience. The classes are still hard & much more rigorous than other schools: aligns with personal and family experience ivy/+ as students and professors.
Kids individually are not more brilliant, but the range of students has absolutely changed! Our kids' college shared data of the SAT range of enrolled students in fall 2020(ie pre-TO numbers because the TO numbers were not out) and then showed the matriculating class 1990, showing percentiles not scores(the sat scores have been recentered). The top 1/4 of students in 1990 were 98-99th%ile, now more than 75% of enrolled students are that. The bottom 25% used to be 90th%ile , now it is 98th. The point the dean made was explaining in part why the mental health is harder --much more competition with so many students who are used to being at the very top, rather than merely 1/4 of the student body. Plus, they noted that the top 25% of this college in the 1990s soared into medical school easily(1994 national med accept rate was the same as now): the next 25% got in but not nearly 100%, and it was rare to get in if you were below average at this school back then. They have made the grading more in line with "peer" schools(they named other ivies) in the last few years because they want the 98-99th%ile students to all have a shot at med school if they want it considering this group is capable easily: no more C+ average in orgo, now it is a B+/B average, such that over 75% get B range grades in what formerly were "weedouts". My other kid who does not attend this ivy, but attends another T10 and is premed there, has been told almost the exact same thing by the premed advisors: as long as you are not in the bottom 1/4 you can get into medical school easily, they try to make sure LESS than 1/4 get Cs and it is even less once you move past the first 3 semesters, into upper level science/stem. For those in the bottom 1/4 after the first year who still want it, they put them on a slow down summer classes program or a 4+1 slow down and give them resources to have a shot at med school after a couple years out.

TLDR, the students now ARE smarter than the students in the 1990s, and the grade inflation at top schools is purposeful--one or two top schools started it and now all have followed--so that all students who are 99th%iles now can have excellent results even in competitive tracks.

Why are there so many more 99th percentile students now so now there is no space for even 95th percentile much less 90th...? Is it population growth? International students?

There are just a lot of 99th percentile students. It's just a fact of math. Of the at least 2.5 million students entering college every year in the US, there will 25,000 such students. We're not even at the peak of college enrollment right now because that happened back around 2010.

But of course there is space for kids who are in the 95th or 90th percentile or lower! There is plenty of room because there are close to 6000 colleges in the US. Notice that the top 10% of those make up a whopping 600 colleges to choose from! I wonder if anyone else sees the irony in people complaining that the top 1% of colleges should admit 90th percentile students, when many of these same parents are gunning for the top elite schools and would be dissatisfied with anything lower than a T50 or T100 college for their kids?

That's fine - I am just wondering why it was possible 30 years ago to be at Harvard as a 90th percentile (someone referenced something like this a few pages ago) while today there is not enough space for 99thers and 90thers are entirely out of the question. Were top students spread more widely or is it just population growth?

Because fewer students aimed for the top. I was at a large suburban HS with 800 seniors. About 10 students went on to out-of-state privates. It’s not that everyone else was denied, they simply didn’t apply to selective schools.

But those students who did were very good.

This is it. Northeast schools only attracted kids from that region, Duke attracted the top southern kids, UChic/NWestern the midwest. Sure some jumped regions but most did not. Internationals wete rare, not 15-18% of undergrads, leaving less spots for US. They are ALL 99+ at top 10s . They dominate. The math and science backgrounds they have are 1-2 years above the typical top track of US kids. Now kids all over the USA and the world all know ivies and apply across the country. Add to it the US population has increase a ton and yet the spots have only increased slightly.
The competition is higher and the resulting student populations at the top 15-20 especially, is skewed strongly toward the top 1-2% kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m shocked at how many people on here seem to think that only the best and brightest can succeed at top schools. It may be true that kids need to be that to get into those schools, but most people who have been to one admit that it’s not that hard to get good grades there.

I don't get this, either. Have college curricula changed much during the past decade?

I was in a PhD program at Harvard and TA-ing many classes. The idea that these classes are so unbelievably hard that 99.9 percentile kids are struggling to keep up sounds insane to me. It was really not that hard. The kids were smart (especially premeds) but not once in a lifetime geniuses. If you came to classes, read the textbook, did the practice problems, you got an A. A+ was another story, and that was difficult.

U.S. colleges, on average, have become less difficult and it can be argued that they do not push students as much as they did in the past. The average GPA at Harvard in 1966 was 2.8. By 1990 it was 3.3. Today, it may be nearer to 3.8. This grade inflation holds to differing levels across the board at colleges. It is most acute at the most selective. The same pattern can be seen at schools like UVA. At the same time, studies have shown that the number of study hours has declined.

https://gradeinflation.com/Harvard.html
https://gradeinflation.com/

This is what I thought but now people are reporting from the trenches that their "99.9 percentile kid is struggling to keep up at their Ivy". Maybe kids are more brilliant now?

The previous quotes almost all say 99th percentiles (ave ivy kid) work hard but can keep up. 99.9 certainly does not have to struggle to "keep up" --cannot find anyone who said that and if they did they do not have first hand experience. The classes are still hard & much more rigorous than other schools: aligns with personal and family experience ivy/+ as students and professors.
Kids individually are not more brilliant, but the range of students has absolutely changed! Our kids' college shared data of the SAT range of enrolled students in fall 2020(ie pre-TO numbers because the TO numbers were not out) and then showed the matriculating class 1990, showing percentiles not scores(the sat scores have been recentered). The top 1/4 of students in 1990 were 98-99th%ile, now more than 75% of enrolled students are that. The bottom 25% used to be 90th%ile , now it is 98th. The point the dean made was explaining in part why the mental health is harder --much more competition with so many students who are used to being at the very top, rather than merely 1/4 of the student body. Plus, they noted that the top 25% of this college in the 1990s soared into medical school easily(1994 national med accept rate was the same as now): the next 25% got in but not nearly 100%, and it was rare to get in if you were below average at this school back then. They have made the grading more in line with "peer" schools(they named other ivies) in the last few years because they want the 98-99th%ile students to all have a shot at med school if they want it considering this group is capable easily: no more C+ average in orgo, now it is a B+/B average, such that over 75% get B range grades in what formerly were "weedouts". My other kid who does not attend this ivy, but attends another T10 and is premed there, has been told almost the exact same thing by the premed advisors: as long as you are not in the bottom 1/4 you can get into medical school easily, they try to make sure LESS than 1/4 get Cs and it is even less once you move past the first 3 semesters, into upper level science/stem. For those in the bottom 1/4 after the first year who still want it, they put them on a slow down summer classes program or a 4+1 slow down and give them resources to have a shot at med school after a couple years out.

TLDR, the students now ARE smarter than the students in the 1990s, and the grade inflation at top schools is purposeful--one or two top schools started it and now all have followed--so that all students who are 99th%iles now can have excellent results even in competitive tracks.

Why are there so many more 99th percentile students now so now there is no space for even 95th percentile much less 90th...? Is it population growth? International students?

There are just a lot of 99th percentile students. It's just a fact of math. Of the at least 2.5 million students entering college every year in the US, there will 25,000 such students. We're not even at the peak of college enrollment right now because that happened back around 2010.

But of course there is space for kids who are in the 95th or 90th percentile or lower! There is plenty of room because there are close to 6000 colleges in the US. Notice that the top 10% of those make up a whopping 600 colleges to choose from! I wonder if anyone else sees the irony in people complaining that the top 1% of colleges should admit 90th percentile students, when many of these same parents are gunning for the top elite schools and would be dissatisfied with anything lower than a T50 or T100 college for their kids?

That's fine - I am just wondering why it was possible 30 years ago to be at Harvard as a 90th percentile (someone referenced something like this a few pages ago) while today there is not enough space for 99thers and 90thers are entirely out of the question. Were top students spread more widely or is it just population growth?

They were definitely spread more widely before. Today, parents and kids are more ambitious about the college brand and more willing to apply all over the country. Plus, the common app makes it easy to apply everywhete.

My husband was one of those unicorns with a 1600 (which was way higher than 99th percentile back in the day) and valedictorian of his class. He did not even apply to an Ivy. Of the 3 schools he applied to, he ended up selecting Duke, which was not as selective or elite back then, and that was because he never wanted to be that far from home. My score was not perfect but also 99th percentile and my grades decent, and I recall only applying to 5 schools, none of which was an Ivy. Neither of our sets of parents were Ivy obsessed. They were quite proud when we went to an elite science school for our PhDs (where we met), but school rank was never an obsession for them, like it is for much of dcum. I definitely agree the landscape is more competitive now but it’s not because kids are on the whole smarter, but because parents and kids are more intense about getting into dream colleges.

Thank you, this is very interesting. So it seems that students are now sorting themselves according to, roughly, us news rankings, therefore resulting in more homogenous classes, at least in terms of ability, and increasing differences between the schools with different ranks.

I don't think it's totally homogenous by ability, even though it's more competitive. The top 3 still have a range of SAT scores rather than accepting only the top fraction of the top 1%. The schools still use holistic admissions and they want other talents, a range of majors, strong athletes, diversity, etc.