Some good news: Crime is down in DC

[Anonymous]

Part of the appeal of DC was teens having easy access to hanging out with friends w/o cars. Guns pulled at Pentagon City and Tysons makes that not so appealing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Part of the appeal of DC was teens having easy access to hanging out with friends w/o cars. Guns pulled at Pentagon City and Tysons makes that not so appealing.

This isn’t really a D.C. problem if it’s happening in Virginia, though?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Part of the appeal of DC was teens having easy access to hanging out with friends w/o cars. Guns pulled at Pentagon City and Tysons makes that not so appealing.

This isn’t really a D.C. problem if it’s happening in Virginia, though?

If DC teens commit violent crimes in Virginia, at least the local prosecutors won't go easy on them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This "don't listen to people who say crime is down" idea seems a little much -- even horrific crimes don't mean that overall crime/even overall violent crime can't be down. No one is claiming crime has been ERADICATED, so I don't see how any given shooting is supposed to somehow prove that crime is dropping.

I'm not trying to minimize crime or suggest that it's not bad, I'm just saying, I don't think it's particularly helpful to say that our feelings or worries about crime mean that the numbers are invalid.

Big celebrations about crime dropping from people who denied (or lied) about crime rising and are completely incurious as to why it skyrocketed 2021-2023.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This "don't listen to people who say crime is down" idea seems a little much -- even horrific crimes don't mean that overall crime/even overall violent crime can't be down. No one is claiming crime has been ERADICATED, so I don't see how any given shooting is supposed to somehow prove that crime is dropping.

I'm not trying to minimize crime or suggest that it's not bad, I'm just saying, I don't think it's particularly helpful to say that our feelings or worries about crime mean that the numbers are invalid.

Big celebrations about crime dropping from people who denied (or lied) about crime rising and are completely incurious as to why it skyrocketed 2021-2023.

Exactly. No reason to celebrate having the 2nd highest crime rate in the 20 years just because last year was the highest. It’s like people don’t have any standards anymore.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This "don't listen to people who say crime is down" idea seems a little much -- even horrific crimes don't mean that overall crime/even overall violent crime can't be down. No one is claiming crime has been ERADICATED, so I don't see how any given shooting is supposed to somehow prove that crime is dropping.

I'm not trying to minimize crime or suggest that it's not bad, I'm just saying, I don't think it's particularly helpful to say that our feelings or worries about crime mean that the numbers are invalid.

Big celebrations about crime dropping from people who denied (or lied) about crime rising and are completely incurious as to why it skyrocketed 2021-2023.

I'm not advocating a celebration over the crime rate dropping from last year's highs, I'm just saying, the fact that there is still crime doesn't mean that it's not true that the crime rate is dropping.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This "don't listen to people who say crime is down" idea seems a little much -- even horrific crimes don't mean that overall crime/even overall violent crime can't be down. No one is claiming crime has been ERADICATED, so I don't see how any given shooting is supposed to somehow prove that crime is dropping.

I'm not trying to minimize crime or suggest that it's not bad, I'm just saying, I don't think it's particularly helpful to say that our feelings or worries about crime mean that the numbers are invalid.

Big celebrations about crime dropping from people who denied (or lied) about crime rising and are completely incurious as to why it skyrocketed 2021-2023.

I'm not advocating a celebration over the crime rate dropping from last year's highs, I'm just saying, the fact that there is still crime doesn't mean that it's not true that the crime rate is dropping.

"April data shows a nearly 55 percent increase in homicides and a approximately 163 percent increase in non-fatal shooting victims from the previous month’s totals, which were 11 homicides and 16 non-fatal shootings, respectively."

https://dcwitness.org/april-sees-steep-spike-in-dc-homicides-non-fatal-shootings/

[Anonymous]

Yes, this is a REALITY CHECK

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This "don't listen to people who say crime is down" idea seems a little much -- even horrific crimes don't mean that overall crime/even overall violent crime can't be down. No one is claiming crime has been ERADICATED, so I don't see how any given shooting is supposed to somehow prove that crime is dropping.

I'm not trying to minimize crime or suggest that it's not bad, I'm just saying, I don't think it's particularly helpful to say that our feelings or worries about crime mean that the numbers are invalid.

Big celebrations about crime dropping from people who denied (or lied) about crime rising and are completely incurious as to why it skyrocketed 2021-2023.

I'm not advocating a celebration over the crime rate dropping from last year's highs, I'm just saying, the fact that there is still crime doesn't mean that it's not true that the crime rate is dropping.

"April data shows a nearly 55 percent increase in homicides and a approximately 163 percent increase in non-fatal shooting victims from the previous month’s totals, which were 11 homicides and 16 non-fatal shootings, respectively."

https://dcwitness.org/april-sees-steep-spike-in-dc-homicides-non-fatal-shootings/

Yes, and if that trend continues, maybe there will be more crime in 2024 than there was in 2023. But for now, year to date including this April increase compared to March, there have been about 20 percent fewer homicides this year than last year.

I'd prefer if there were no homicides at all, but I don't understand the point of trying to argue that incidents of horrible crimes are a "reality check" on the statistics. The homicide totals are reality. So are the horrible crimes. One doesn't have to be in direct concert with the other.

[Anonymous]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/251877/murder-victims-in-the-us-by-race-ethnicity-and-gender/

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/crime/crime-gun-violence-district-of-columbia-us-attoneys-office-matthew-graves-ar15-rifle/65-201db8a1-2870-4ff9-9ffc-58c269225d51

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This "don't listen to people who say crime is down" idea seems a little much -- even horrific crimes don't mean that overall crime/even overall violent crime can't be down. No one is claiming crime has been ERADICATED, so I don't see how any given shooting is supposed to somehow prove that crime is dropping.

I'm not trying to minimize crime or suggest that it's not bad, I'm just saying, I don't think it's particularly helpful to say that our feelings or worries about crime mean that the numbers are invalid.

Big celebrations about crime dropping from people who denied (or lied) about crime rising and are completely incurious as to why it skyrocketed 2021-2023.

I'm not advocating a celebration over the crime rate dropping from last year's highs, I'm just saying, the fact that there is still crime doesn't mean that it's not true that the crime rate is dropping.

"April data shows a nearly 55 percent increase in homicides and a approximately 163 percent increase in non-fatal shooting victims from the previous month’s totals, which were 11 homicides and 16 non-fatal shootings, respectively."

https://dcwitness.org/april-sees-steep-spike-in-dc-homicides-non-fatal-shootings/

Yes, and if that trend continues, maybe there will be more crime in 2024 than there was in 2023. But for now, year to date including this April increase compared to March, there have been about 20 percent fewer homicides this year than last year.

I'd prefer if there were no homicides at all, but I don't understand the point of trying to argue that incidents of horrible crimes are a "reality check" on the statistics. The homicide totals are reality. So are the horrible crimes. One doesn't have to be in direct concert with the other.

Your standard for whether crime is bad is whether it surpasses the prior year when the city had the highest number of homicides since the 90s?

My impression now is that DC had a false dawn. Things were looking up the past few months. Crime had been down. Prosecutions up. Police making more arrests. DC Council getting more serious. Even the Wizards and Caps were staying.

Then something happened in April and things have turned like a switch. Brazen carjackings and car thefts are back. Dirt bikes and ATVs are back. More restaurants and stores announced closures. Murders are back up to 2023 monthly numbers. DC Council is getting increasingly irresponsible on the budget threatening a return of the financial control board. Families are leaving.

[Anonymous]

We’re not even 12 month removed from the baseline comment on this board being a denial that crime had increased at all. It wasn't until we hit 19990s murder totals that people were too embarrassed to pretend nothing had changed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We’re not even 12 month removed from the baseline comment on this board being a denial that crime had increased at all. It wasn't until we hit 19990s murder totals that people were too embarrassed to pretend nothing had changed.

And now the talking point has changed to say that so long as it’s not higher than 2023 everything is cool. Denial isn’t just a river in Africa.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This "don't listen to people who say crime is down" idea seems a little much -- even horrific crimes don't mean that overall crime/even overall violent crime can't be down. No one is claiming crime has been ERADICATED, so I don't see how any given shooting is supposed to somehow prove that crime is dropping.

I'm not trying to minimize crime or suggest that it's not bad, I'm just saying, I don't think it's particularly helpful to say that our feelings or worries about crime mean that the numbers are invalid.

Big celebrations about crime dropping from people who denied (or lied) about crime rising and are completely incurious as to why it skyrocketed 2021-2023.

I'm not advocating a celebration over the crime rate dropping from last year's highs, I'm just saying, the fact that there is still crime doesn't mean that it's not true that the crime rate is dropping.

"April data shows a nearly 55 percent increase in homicides and a approximately 163 percent increase in non-fatal shooting victims from the previous month’s totals, which were 11 homicides and 16 non-fatal shootings, respectively."

https://dcwitness.org/april-sees-steep-spike-in-dc-homicides-non-fatal-shootings/

Yes, and if that trend continues, maybe there will be more crime in 2024 than there was in 2023. But for now, year to date including this April increase compared to March, there have been about 20 percent fewer homicides this year than last year.

I'd prefer if there were no homicides at all, but I don't understand the point of trying to argue that incidents of horrible crimes are a "reality check" on the statistics. The homicide totals are reality. So are the horrible crimes. One doesn't have to be in direct concert with the other.

Your standard for whether crime is bad is whether it surpasses the prior year when the city had the highest number of homicides since the 90s?

My impression now is that DC had a false dawn. Things were looking up the past few months. Crime had been down. Prosecutions up. Police making more arrests. DC Council getting more serious. Even the Wizards and Caps were staying.

Then something happened in April and things have turned like a switch. Brazen carjackings and car thefts are back. Dirt bikes and ATVs are back. More restaurants and stores announced closures. Murders are back up to 2023 monthly numbers. DC Council is getting increasingly irresponsible on the budget threatening a return of the financial control board. Families are leaving.

No, I am not saying a decrease from last year means crime is not bad. I'm saying I think it's stupid to point to crimes happening as a "reality check" on statistics showing that crime is decreasing. The crimes are happening. And there's less crime than last year. Both of these things are true. People can make their own assessments of what that means and what we should do about it, but it's ridiculous to try to argue that the murder rate isn't actually dropping from last year's pace.

[Anonymous]

This is shocking