Why is Arlington so hot?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington is the hottest area because NOVA is hot for jobs and real estate.
Arlington just seems hotter than other parts of NOVA because it is so small. Let’s be real here, we really mean north Arlington when people on this bored post 99% of the time.

Arlington is more expensive than places like fairfax or whatever because of its location and urban-like areas on orange line.

I agree people usually mean north Arlington when they say only Arlington but in this instance south Arlington is just as hot or hotter, and appreciating faster (at least at certain price points). Literally the only advantage north Arlington ever had was the schools, and now it’s clear they are all crap.

And south Arlington will be the first to have prices fall. A lot. No reason to live in high crime area with lousy schools if you don’t have to. Many upper middle class families only live in south Arlington because of the proximity to work. If they can, they move. Even for pandemic a large portion of south Arlington families leave before kids get old enough for school, or sometime in mid elementary school when they realize just how big the educational disparities are between poor south Arlington schools and north Arlington.

When I got 2/3 permanent work from home we moved to western ffx county for better schools and twice the house. And no drug dealing a couple doors down on the Pike.

Everything you said would have been true perhaps five years ago, definitely ten years ago, but is not true today. I don’t have a dog in the fight it’s just true - South Arlington is continuing to gentrify and the prices reflect that.

Sort of. I agree things are hot now, but people are buying in south Arlington who already live in south Arlington. They are moving from a rental or smaller place. And, they are still priced out of north Arlington. And the gentrification is focused on the mid and eastern end of the pike. The western end is slated for a huge amount of affordable housing over the next several years that will limit gentrification. As the new storefronts remain empty, things will slide back down. South Arlington can never really gentrify when it has a large cluster of schools with very high rates of student poverty.

North Arlington only has one pocket of poverty, buckingham, which is right on the border with south Arlington. That enclave doesn’t give north Arlington diversity.

That’s not the only “pocket”.

North Arlington is everything above Rt 50. This doesn’t include many of the lower-cost rental units along the corridor.
https://housing.arlingtonva.us/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/08/Committed-Affordable-Units-Map.pdf

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington is the hottest area because NOVA is hot for jobs and real estate.
Arlington just seems hotter than other parts of NOVA because it is so small. Let’s be real here, we really mean north Arlington when people on this bored post 99% of the time.

Arlington is more expensive than places like fairfax or whatever because of its location and urban-like areas on orange line.

I agree people usually mean north Arlington when they say only Arlington but in this instance south Arlington is just as hot or hotter, and appreciating faster (at least at certain price points). Literally the only advantage north Arlington ever had was the schools, and now it’s clear they are all crap.

And south Arlington will be the first to have prices fall. A lot. No reason to live in high crime area with lousy schools if you don’t have to. Many upper middle class families only live in south Arlington because of the proximity to work. If they can, they move. Even for pandemic a large portion of south Arlington families leave before kids get old enough for school, or sometime in mid elementary school when they realize just how big the educational disparities are between poor south Arlington schools and north Arlington.

When I got 2/3 permanent work from home we moved to western ffx county for better schools and twice the house. And no drug dealing a couple doors down on the Pike.

Everything you said would have been true perhaps five years ago, definitely ten years ago, but is not true today. I don’t have a dog in the fight it’s just true - South Arlington is continuing to gentrify and the prices reflect that.

Sort of. I agree things are hot now, but people are buying in south Arlington who already live in south Arlington. They are moving from a rental or smaller place. And, they are still priced out of north Arlington. And the gentrification is focused on the mid and eastern end of the pike. The western end is slated for a huge amount of affordable housing over the next several years that will limit gentrification. As the new storefronts remain empty, things will slide back down. South Arlington can never really gentrify when it has a large cluster of schools with very high rates of student poverty.

North Arlington only has one pocket of poverty, buckingham, which is right on the border with south Arlington. That enclave doesn’t give north Arlington diversity.

Hmmm, people in south Arlington are priced out of north Arlington?

Recent sales along the pike:

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/1723-S-Nelson-St-22204/home/11263975

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/3000-12th-St-S-22204/home/95011892

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/3014-12th-St-S-22204/home/40027708

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/3925-9th-St-S-22204/home/11261276

Prices closer to crystal city are naturally way higher.

You *can* still get a house for 700K in south Arlington, and it’s harder to get anything other than a tear down in north Arlington. But “priced out” of north Arlington? Hardly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington is the hottest area because NOVA is hot for jobs and real estate.
Arlington just seems hotter than other parts of NOVA because it is so small. Let’s be real here, we really mean north Arlington when people on this bored post 99% of the time.

Arlington is more expensive than places like fairfax or whatever because of its location and urban-like areas on orange line.

I agree people usually mean north Arlington when they say only Arlington but in this instance south Arlington is just as hot or hotter, and appreciating faster (at least at certain price points). Literally the only advantage north Arlington ever had was the schools, and now it’s clear they are all crap.

Why is this? There are no Metro stops anywhere in South Arlington, right?

Yes of course there are!!! Pentagon city, crystal city, the airport, and the new one at Potomac Yards (technically Alexandria but right on the border of Arlington).

Also the metro is permanently closing stations in north Arlington because ridership is down, so I don’t think the metro is as desirable as it once was.

Yeah but if you live anywhere near Glebe and Columbia Pike there are no Metro stops you can walk to. Isn’t that what most people think of as “South Arlington”?

[Anonymous]

In many ways it’s just the best of what can only be deemed an overall nova suburban hellscape. No one wants to live in Arlington. It’s just that many feel compelled to.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yorktown vs Whitman SAT data for those that don’t want to do the research and comb through data.

Yorktown
Asian = 1786
Black = 1506
Hispanic = 1610
White = 1788

Whitman
Asian = 1901
Black = 1561
Hispanic = 1827
White = 1917

Whitman like Yorktown is within the Beltway and close to DC. Housing prices are demographics are similar.

I was looking at W-L data since that is more popular than YHS. It’s also 34% FARMS. How about Whitman?

W-L
Asian 1582
Black 1523
Hispanic 1442
White 1856

Did you find the breakdown by FARM vs non-FARM scores?

There are unique populations in Arlington that make even comparing by “race” less meaningful.

SES would make more sense.

Right, many of the Asian for instance masks the fact that a large part of them of lower SES Vietnamese and Mongolian vs wealthy Chinese immigrants in McLean. You can paint a broad brush like that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:In many ways it’s just the best of what can only be deemed an overall nova suburban hellscape. No one wants to live in Arlington. It’s just that many feel compelled to.

*shrug* I like living in Arlington, but you do you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yorktown vs Whitman SAT data for those that don’t want to do the research and comb through data.

Yorktown
Asian = 1786
Black = 1506
Hispanic = 1610
White = 1788

Whitman
Asian = 1901
Black = 1561
Hispanic = 1827
White = 1917

Whitman like Yorktown is within the Beltway and close to DC. Housing prices are demographics are similar.

I was looking at W-L data since that is more popular than YHS. It’s also 34% FARMS. How about Whitman?

W-L
Asian 1582
Black 1523
Hispanic 1442
White 1856

Did you find the breakdown by FARM vs non-FARM scores?

There are unique populations in Arlington that make even comparing by “race” less meaningful.

SES would make more sense.

Right, many of the Asian for instance masks the fact that a large part of them of lower SES Vietnamese and Mongolian vs wealthy Chinese immigrants in McLean. You can paint a broad brush like that.

This still doesn’t account for why white kids who go to Einstein are scoring higher than white kids in Yorktown, when the average price of a home in Einstein’s district is more than half what it is in Yorktown. These are homes sold in the past 3 months in Einstein’s district:

https://www.redfin.com/school/134958/MD/Kensington/Albert-Einstein-High-School/filter/include=sold-3mo

Past 3 months in Yorktown district:

https://www.redfin.com/school/111867/VA/Arlington/Yorktown-High-School/filter/include=sold-3mo

[Anonymous]

And these are the past three months of sales in Whitman’s district. The prices are similar to what you’re paying in Yorktown for SFH in the same type of leafy neighborhoods. If anything prices per sq ft in Whitman’s district might be cheaper:

https://www.redfin.com/school/119943/MD/Bethesda/Walt-Whitman-High-School/filter/include=sold-3mo

So why are the white kids in these expensive homes in Yorktown’s district doing so much worse than white kids in comparable homes in Whitman’s district? At some point the quality of the schools has to play a factor. Whitman is not a magnet school and the white kids are scoring 1917 on their SATs compared to 1788 at Yorktown. That is a huge disparity that has to be accounted for somehow and I don’t see SES playing a role.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yorktown vs Whitman SAT data for those that don’t want to do the research and comb through data.

Yorktown
Asian = 1786
Black = 1506
Hispanic = 1610
White = 1788

Whitman
Asian = 1901
Black = 1561
Hispanic = 1827
White = 1917

Whitman like Yorktown is within the Beltway and close to DC. Housing prices are demographics are similar.

I was looking at W-L data since that is more popular than YHS. It’s also 34% FARMS. How about Whitman?

W-L
Asian 1582
Black 1523
Hispanic 1442
White 1856

Did you find the breakdown by FARM vs non-FARM scores?

There are unique populations in Arlington that make even comparing by “race” less meaningful.

SES would make more sense.

Right, many of the Asian for instance masks the fact that a large part of them of lower SES Vietnamese and Mongolian vs wealthy Chinese immigrants in McLean. You can paint a broad brush like that.

This still doesn’t account for why white kids who go to Einstein are scoring higher than white kids in Yorktown, when the average price of a home in Einstein’s district is more than half what it is in Yorktown. These are homes sold in the past 3 months in Einstein’s district:

https://www.redfin.com/school/134958/MD/Kensington/Albert-Einstein-High-School/filter/include=sold-3mo

Past 3 months in Yorktown district:

https://www.redfin.com/school/111867/VA/Arlington/Yorktown-High-School/filter/include=sold-3mo

Is that consistent across the years or was 2016 an anomaly?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yorktown vs Whitman SAT data for those that don’t want to do the research and comb through data.

Yorktown
Asian = 1786
Black = 1506
Hispanic = 1610
White = 1788

Whitman
Asian = 1901
Black = 1561
Hispanic = 1827
White = 1917

Whitman like Yorktown is within the Beltway and close to DC. Housing prices are demographics are similar.

I was looking at W-L data since that is more popular than YHS. It’s also 34% FARMS. How about Whitman?

W-L
Asian 1582
Black 1523
Hispanic 1442
White 1856

Did you find the breakdown by FARM vs non-FARM scores?

There are unique populations in Arlington that make even comparing by “race” less meaningful.

SES would make more sense.

Right, many of the Asian for instance masks the fact that a large part of them of lower SES Vietnamese and Mongolian vs wealthy Chinese immigrants in McLean. You can paint a broad brush like that.

This still doesn’t account for why white kids who go to Einstein are scoring higher than white kids in Yorktown, when the average price of a home in Einstein’s district is more than half what it is in Yorktown. These are homes sold in the past 3 months in Einstein’s district:

https://www.redfin.com/school/134958/MD/Kensington/Albert-Einstein-High-School/filter/include=sold-3mo

Past 3 months in Yorktown district:

https://www.redfin.com/school/111867/VA/Arlington/Yorktown-High-School/filter/include=sold-3mo

I know why it is. Einstein feeds a bunch of Russian and Eastern European immigrants (often who were doctors or physicists in home country) and though they are “white” they score like rich Asians. Yorktown is full of a bunch of lawyers who did well by grinding and networking, not really huge SAT scores. Their priority is a more yuppie childhood of sports and high school football and good grades, but not much math enrichment or SAT prep. My roommate went to Yale Law school, but took a class where the textbook was “Calculus Lite”.

It’s just a different focus. I think Einstein is more rigorous it people who live there want that while people in Yorktown dont

[Anonymous]

ALL the traffic is in close-in Arlington/DC (bridges, DUH), except maybe PM traffic on the 50 corridor outside of 7 Corners.

People always complain about traffic, which I get, but the thing is when you live close you don't spend much time in it because you just never have to go very far. My friends from farther out (fairfax, anywhere south on I95) complain about closer in traffic, but in actuality they spend way more time in it than I do living in south Arlington.

[Anonymous]

I find it funny that some poster is so insecure and threatened by Arlington’s “cool” factor they are posting about Bethesda test scores.
Bethesda is nice. Great.
Arlington is nice. Great. Arlington (parts of it) seems to have the “it” factor recently.
Does not mean there aren’t other nice places to live in the dmv.

[Anonymous]

Arlington is hot because people want to live there. There is not any extra land so the land there is very valuable. There's a shortage. So it goes at a premium. I have kids in APS and am perfectly happy with the education they are getting, supplemented by what I am able to provide in terms of experiences, tutoring as needed, etc. as an UMC/ higher SES family. I'm glad that Whitman has such great scores. Good for Whitman. Doesn't change the fact that I'm happy in Arlington and have no intention of moving out to Bethesda or Potomac or whatever.

People on here arguing that Arlington sucks or that Whitman is better than Yorktown are just butthurt that their area isn't hot like Arlington. Sorry you are mad. Doesn't change the market.

[Anonymous]

I grew up in Arlington and attended Washington-Lee. Got a 1500 or so out of 1600 on SAT, which was considered good but not great amongst my peers and classmates. Looking at aggregate SAT scores in well established public high schools with many program tracks is pretty ridiculous - there are many tiers of segregation within schools to ensure that smart kids will effectively never interact with those who drag down the average. The only reason to be concerned with those scores is if you think your child will be below average to begin with.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
The Yorktown score seems off. It’s even lower than the W-L score.

Many an anomaly that year (2016)?

Anyway, looking at SAT scores is just looking at SES.

The super-high-achievers in Yorktown zone can transfer to W-L for the IB Diploma program. There's no equivalent transfers to Yorktown.

No they can’t. They have to be within W-L boundaries