Why is Arlington so hot?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yorktown vs Whitman SAT data for those that don’t want to do the research and comb through data.

Yorktown
Asian = 1786
Black = 1506
Hispanic = 1610
White = 1788

Whitman
Asian = 1901
Black = 1561
Hispanic = 1827
White = 1917

Whitman like Yorktown is within the Beltway and close to DC. Housing prices are demographics are similar.

I was looking at W-L data since that is more popular than YHS. It’s also 34% FARMS. How about Whitman?

W-L
Asian 1582
Black 1523
Hispanic 1442
White 1856

Did you find the breakdown by FARM vs non-FARM scores?

There are unique populations in Arlington that make even comparing by “race” less meaningful.

SES would make more sense.

So many of the rich white kids zoned for W-L do private HS now. I say about 60% of HS kids in my neighborhood attend a private HS in DC or VA.

+100

This has been a trend the past 5 years or so as housing prices have gone way up and the APS product has gone down.

The majority of HS kids in our W-L neighborhood now attend private HS.

Thank god, because schools are so crowded everyone left.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm confused by the suggestion that Arlington is "so hot". Here are the # of single-family houses now on the market for under $1M in various school zones, according to Redfin:

Yorktown - 10

Madison - 6

Marshall - 6

Churchill - 3

McLean - 3

Langley - 2

B-CC - 2

George Mason - 0

Whitman - 0

One is a year down, one backs to a radio antenna 200 ft tall, and another is on Nelly Custis. I’m sure there are defects in all those listings as people scramble to unload duds

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yorktown vs Whitman SAT data for those that don’t want to do the research and comb through data.

Yorktown
Asian = 1786
Black = 1506
Hispanic = 1610
White = 1788

Whitman
Asian = 1901
Black = 1561
Hispanic = 1827
White = 1917

Whitman like Yorktown is within the Beltway and close to DC. Housing prices are demographics are similar.

I was looking at W-L data since that is more popular than YHS. It’s also 34% FARMS. How about Whitman?

W-L
Asian 1582
Black 1523
Hispanic 1442
White 1856

Did you find the breakdown by FARM vs non-FARM scores?

There are unique populations in Arlington that make even comparing by “race” less meaningful.

SES would make more sense.

So many of the rich white kids zoned for W-L do private HS now. I say about 60% of HS kids in my neighborhood attend a private HS in DC or VA.

+100

This has been a trend the past 5 years or so as housing prices have gone way up and the APS product has gone down.

The majority of HS kids in our W-L neighborhood now attend private HS.

There aren’t that many private HSs around Arlington. Where are these kids going?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington is the hottest area because NOVA is hot for jobs and real estate.
Arlington just seems hotter than other parts of NOVA because it is so small. Let’s be real here, we really mean north Arlington when people on this bored post 99% of the time.

Arlington is more expensive than places like fairfax or whatever because of its location and urban-like areas on orange line.

I agree people usually mean north Arlington when they say only Arlington but in this instance south Arlington is just as hot or hotter, and appreciating faster (at least at certain price points). Literally the only advantage north Arlington ever had was the schools, and now it’s clear they are all crap.

And south Arlington will be the first to have prices fall. A lot. No reason to live in high crime area with lousy schools if you don’t have to. Many upper middle class families only live in south Arlington because of the proximity to work. If they can, they move. Even for pandemic a large portion of south Arlington families leave before kids get old enough for school, or sometime in mid elementary school when they realize just how big the educational disparities are between poor south Arlington schools and north Arlington.

When I got 2/3 permanent work from home we moved to western ffx county for better schools and twice the house. And no drug dealing a couple doors down on the Pike.

Everything you said would have been true perhaps five years ago, definitely ten years ago, but is not true today. I don’t have a dog in the fight it’s just true - South Arlington is continuing to gentrify and the prices reflect that.

Sort of. I agree things are hot now, but people are buying in south Arlington who already live in south Arlington. They are moving from a rental or smaller place. And, they are still priced out of north Arlington. And the gentrification is focused on the mid and eastern end of the pike. The western end is slated for a huge amount of affordable housing over the next several years that will limit gentrification. As the new storefronts remain empty, things will slide back down. South Arlington can never really gentrify when it has a large cluster of schools with very high rates of student poverty.

North Arlington only has one pocket of poverty, buckingham, which is right on the border with south Arlington. That enclave doesn’t give north Arlington diversity.

Hmmm, people in south Arlington are priced out of north Arlington?

Recent sales along the pike:

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/1723-S-Nelson-St-22204/home/11263975

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/3000-12th-St-S-22204/home/95011892

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/3014-12th-St-S-22204/home/40027708

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/3925-9th-St-S-22204/home/11261276

Prices closer to crystal city are naturally way higher.

You *can* still get a house for 700K in south Arlington, and it’s harder to get anything other than a tear down in north Arlington. But “priced out” of north Arlington? Hardly.

Most south Arlington homes are not well into the millions. And, the million dollar homes would be a lot more in north Arlington, by hundreds of thousands. And no, you cannot get a livable house in south Arlington for less then $700k. A townhome, yes. But a decent house for a small family that doesn’t need a ton of expensive updates or with a bad flip/layout, no.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yorktown vs Whitman SAT data for those that don’t want to do the research and comb through data.

Yorktown
Asian = 1786
Black = 1506
Hispanic = 1610
White = 1788

Whitman
Asian = 1901
Black = 1561
Hispanic = 1827
White = 1917

Whitman like Yorktown is within the Beltway and close to DC. Housing prices are demographics are similar.

I was looking at W-L data since that is more popular than YHS. It’s also 34% FARMS. How about Whitman?

W-L
Asian 1582
Black 1523
Hispanic 1442
White 1856

Did you find the breakdown by FARM vs non-FARM scores?

There are unique populations in Arlington that make even comparing by “race” less meaningful.

SES would make more sense.

So many of the rich white kids zoned for W-L do private HS now. I say about 60% of HS kids in my neighborhood attend a private HS in DC or VA.

+100

This has been a trend the past 5 years or so as housing prices have gone way up and the APS product has gone down.

The majority of HS kids in our W-L neighborhood now attend private HS.

There aren’t that many private HSs around Arlington. Where are these kids going?

They're not. PP is making shit up.

[Anonymous]

The majority of HS kids in our W-L neighborhood now attend private HS.

That’s why W-L is bursting at the seams. Because of all the kids leaving for private school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm confused by the suggestion that Arlington is "so hot". Here are the # of single-family houses now on the market for under $1M in various school zones, according to Redfin:

Yorktown - 10

Madison - 6

Marshall - 6

Churchill - 3

McLean - 3

Langley - 2

B-CC - 2

George Mason - 0

Whitman - 0

That doesn’t indicate “hotness” though. You could have a $3M place in Whitman...that just sits there for 6 months.

How about DOM?

Or % list price?

MLS doesn’t track # of offers, right?

[Anonymous]

And include W-L and Wakefield on the list.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington is the hottest area because NOVA is hot for jobs and real estate.
Arlington just seems hotter than other parts of NOVA because it is so small. Let’s be real here, we really mean north Arlington when people on this bored post 99% of the time.

Arlington is more expensive than places like fairfax or whatever because of its location and urban-like areas on orange line.

I agree people usually mean north Arlington when they say only Arlington but in this instance south Arlington is just as hot or hotter, and appreciating faster (at least at certain price points). Literally the only advantage north Arlington ever had was the schools, and now it’s clear they are all crap.

Why is this? There are no Metro stops anywhere in South Arlington, right?

Yes of course there are!!! Pentagon city, crystal city, the airport, and the new one at Potomac Yards (technically Alexandria but right on the border of Arlington).

Also the metro is permanently closing stations in north Arlington because ridership is down, so I don’t think the metro is as desirable as it once was.

Yeah but if you live anywhere near Glebe and Columbia Pike there are no Metro stops you can walk to. Isn’t that what most people think of as “South Arlington”?

I live on Columbia pike. I can pick up the bus and be in dc in 10-15 minutes. Not much longer if i transfer to metro at pentagon city. It’s effortless. However, I’m renting and entirely priced out of any part of Arlington unless we go into a duplex.

That said, non covid it’s like a 45-60 min commute to my dc office if driving.

You must work on the far edges of NE DC, close to the MD border. And take every imaginable side street to get to the bridge. No way, even non-Covid, does it take anywhere close to an hour to get from Columbia Pike to downtown.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And include W-L and Wakefield on the list.

Okay. APS vs Bethesda SAT scores:

APS

Yorktown
Asian = 1786
Black = 1506
Hispanic = 1610
White = 1788

W-L
Asian 1582
Black 1523
Hispanic 1442
White 1856

Wakefield
Asian 1426
Black 1310
Hispanic 1370
White 1729

Bethesda High Schools

Whitman
Asian = 1901
Black = 1561
Hispanic = 1827
White = 1917

Walter Johnson
Asian = 1846
Black = 1438
Hispanic = 1597
White = 1815

Bethesda-Chevy Chase
Asian = 1697
Black = 1430
Hispanic = 1627
White = 1841

[Anonymous]

Hasn't Arlington ALWAYS been hot? I don't remember a time when Arlington wasn't one of the more expensive areas in the DMV.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And include W-L and Wakefield on the list.

Okay. APS vs Bethesda SAT scores:

APS

Yorktown
Asian = 1786
Black = 1506
Hispanic = 1610
White = 1788

W-L
Asian 1582
Black 1523
Hispanic 1442
White 1856

Wakefield
Asian 1426
Black 1310
Hispanic 1370
White 1729

Bethesda High Schools

Whitman
Asian = 1901
Black = 1561
Hispanic = 1827
White = 1917

Walter Johnson
Asian = 1846
Black = 1438
Hispanic = 1597
White = 1815

Bethesda-Chevy Chase
Asian = 1697
Black = 1430
Hispanic = 1627
White = 1841

We can make it fair and allow Arlington to bring in the top 5 schools from Fairfax and compete against those Bethesda schools plus Churchill, Wootton, Richard Montgomery, Blair, and Poolesville.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And include W-L and Wakefield on the list.

Okay. APS vs Bethesda SAT scores:

APS

Yorktown
Asian = 1786
Black = 1506
Hispanic = 1610
White = 1788

W-L
Asian 1582
Black 1523
Hispanic 1442
White 1856

Wakefield
Asian 1426
Black 1310
Hispanic 1370
White 1729

Bethesda High Schools

Whitman
Asian = 1901
Black = 1561
Hispanic = 1827
White = 1917

Walter Johnson
Asian = 1846
Black = 1438
Hispanic = 1597
White = 1815

Bethesda-Chevy Chase
Asian = 1697
Black = 1430
Hispanic = 1627
White = 1841

Thanks, but I meant for the DOM and other real estate metrics.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And include W-L and Wakefield on the list.

Okay. APS vs Bethesda SAT scores:

APS

Yorktown
Asian = 1786
Black = 1506
Hispanic = 1610
White = 1788

W-L
Asian 1582
Black 1523
Hispanic 1442
White 1856

Wakefield
Asian 1426
Black 1310
Hispanic 1370
White 1729

Bethesda High Schools

Whitman
Asian = 1901
Black = 1561
Hispanic = 1827
White = 1917

Walter Johnson
Asian = 1846
Black = 1438
Hispanic = 1597
White = 1815

Bethesda-Chevy Chase
Asian = 1697
Black = 1430
Hispanic = 1627
White = 1841

We can make it fair and allow Arlington to bring in the top 5 schools from Fairfax and compete against those Bethesda schools plus Churchill, Wootton, Richard Montgomery, Blair, and Poolesville.

Please include the FARMS % for each school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And include W-L and Wakefield on the list.

For the real estate metrics (DOM, % over list, etc).

Does MLS capture the number of bids received?