By the numbers: A dispassioned evaluation of Hardy (compared to Deal and Wilson)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I totally have a crush on OP.

I bet he is dreamy in real life.

OP, before this goes on too long, can you clear up with the ladies whether or not you are a man?

OP here.

Yes, I am a man. Married, two kids and an awesome dog.

While I find the comments flattering, you should know my wife says I lack -- entirely -- all semblances of empathy.

Are you Italian?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am delighted to see all the statistics backing up the point that I perceive as so obvious: The more IB parents families their kids to Hardy, the more scores at Hardy will start reflecting IB families.

What is hard to understand about this? Nothing -- except there have been other psych/perception forces at work over the last few years that have clouded even the most logical/statistical minds.

It seems like the parents who say they are waiting for the scores to go up before they send their kids to Hardy are really saying - they're more influenced by gossip and innuendo than they are by statistics and common sense.

Perhaps they recognize that the emperor has no clothes. The percentage of white kids scoring "advanced" is much higher at Deal than Hardy.
tha
http://profiles.dcps.dc.gov/Compare.aspx?tab=1&school=405,246

Is there really a concern that if your already advanced kids went to Hardy, their scores would fall? Or is it more likely that their very presence would improve the advanced percentage? Do you think that when your kids move from either middle school to Wilson, they they will be negatively affected by the lower scoring students from around the city?

I haven't looked at the Hardy data myself, but I'm sort of thinking along the same lines as this PP seems to be, in terms of possible explanations for the likely significant difference in % of white advanced performers at Hardy vs. Deal. I wish there was a breakdown for IB vs. OOB among white kids. If Hardy's white kids are mostly OOB, maybe they were not as well prepared academically at other elementaries relative to those white kids at Deal, who are mostly IB. Just a guess.

However, as I'm typing this, I realize this sort of flies in the face of the statement that if you're a white kid from an educated family anywhere in DCPS, you'll likely perform similarly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am delighted to see all the statistics backing up the point that I perceive as so obvious: The more IB parents families their kids to Hardy, the more scores at Hardy will start reflecting IB families.

What is hard to understand about this? Nothing -- except there have been other psych/perception forces at work over the last few years that have clouded even the most logical/statistical minds.

It seems like the parents who say they are waiting for the scores to go up before they send their kids to Hardy are really saying - they're more influenced by gossip and innuendo than they are by statistics and common sense.

Perhaps they recognize that the emperor has no clothes. The percentage of white kids scoring "advanced" is much higher at Deal than Hardy.

http://profiles.dcps.dc.gov/Compare.aspx?tab=1&school=405,246

Thank you! I had asked OP for this analysis, with no response so far.

Those results debunk this whole thread. The proportion of white kids who score advanced at deal is essentially double than hardy, both in reading and math. Over 50% vs 27%. Over 70% vs 42%. That's certainly not peanuts. And parents notice.

And what do parents determine? That Hardy will not be good enough for their kids until the scores go up, but the scores won't go up until kids like theirs go to Hardy, therefore they will keep waiting, complaining about the scores, sending their kids to private for middle school, if they can't do Deal, then to Wilson for high school where kids like theirs are mingling with Hardy kids and kids from all over DC, but somehow it's OK now.

I predict OP will be back -- but let's give him a break for tonight.

Overlooking the "advanced" numbers differentials means OP is not going to get a performance bonus on this project! But will be fun to see argument why those stats don't really matter...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I totally have a crush on OP.

I bet he is dreamy in real life.

OP, before this goes on too long, can you clear up with the ladies whether or not you are a man?

OP here.

Yes, I am a man. Married, two kids and an awesome dog.

While I find the comments flattering, you should know my wife says I lack -- entirely -- all semblances of empathy.

Are you Italian?

I am Chechen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am delighted to see all the statistics backing up the point that I perceive as so obvious: The more IB parents families their kids to Hardy, the more scores at Hardy will start reflecting IB families.

What is hard to understand about this? Nothing -- except there have been other psych/perception forces at work over the last few years that have clouded even the most logical/statistical minds.

It seems like the parents who say they are waiting for the scores to go up before they send their kids to Hardy are really saying - they're more influenced by gossip and innuendo than they are by statistics and common sense.

Perhaps they recognize that the emperor has no clothes. The percentage of white kids scoring "advanced" is much higher at Deal than Hardy.

http://profiles.dcps.dc.gov/Compare.aspx?tab=1&school=405,246

Thank you! I had asked OP for this analysis, with no response so far.

Those results debunk this whole thread. The proportion of white kids who score advanced at deal is essentially double than hardy, both in reading and math. Over 50% vs 27%. Over 70% vs 42%. That's certainly not peanuts. And parents notice.

And what do parents determine? That Hardy will not be good enough for their kids until the scores go up, but the scores won't go up until kids like theirs go to Hardy, therefore they will keep waiting, complaining about the scores, sending their kids to private for middle school, if they can't do Deal, then to Wilson for high school where kids like theirs are mingling with Hardy kids and kids from all over DC, but somehow it's OK now.

I predict OP will be back -- but let's give him a break for tonight.

Parents, everywhere, determine that they don't like being manipulated about what is best for their kids. If there is a credible and solid plan and leadership team to improve certain school, a good number of them may opt in. But misleading conclusions based on faulty analysis is certainly not the same as a credible and solid plan. OP seems to be a great and very capable guy...but may have drank too much political kool aid.

Then parents should hate being manipulated to think that Hardy is inferior and that they shouldn't send their IB kids here until "Scores go up" which obviously won't happen until their kids go there. And they should even hate more being manipulated to being blind to the fact that only so many kids can fit into Deal and that if some of them went to another school with similar SES kids, they would do just as well, because it's the kids, not the building that counts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am delighted to see all the statistics backing up the point that I perceive as so obvious: The more IB parents families their kids to Hardy, the more scores at Hardy will start reflecting IB families.

What is hard to understand about this? Nothing -- except there have been other psych/perception forces at work over the last few years that have clouded even the most logical/statistical minds.

It seems like the parents who say they are waiting for the scores to go up before they send their kids to Hardy are really saying - they're more influenced by gossip and innuendo than they are by statistics and common sense.

Perhaps they recognize that the emperor has no clothes. The percentage of white kids scoring "advanced" is much higher at Deal than Hardy.

http://profiles.dcps.dc.gov/Compare.aspx?tab=1&school=405,246

Thank you! I had asked OP for this analysis, with no response so far.

Those results debunk this whole thread. The proportion of white kids who score advanced at deal is essentially double than hardy, both in reading and math. Over 50% vs 27%. Over 70% vs 42%. That's certainly not peanuts. And parents notice.

And what do parents determine? That Hardy will not be good enough for their kids until the scores go up, but the scores won't go up until kids like theirs go to Hardy, therefore they will keep waiting, complaining about the scores, sending their kids to private for middle school, if they can't do Deal, then to Wilson for high school where kids like theirs are mingling with Hardy kids and kids from all over DC, but somehow it's OK now.

I predict OP will be back -- but let's give him a break for tonight.

Parents, everywhere, determine that they don't like being manipulated about what is best for their kids. If there is a credible and solid plan and leadership team to improve certain school, a good number of them may opt in. But misleading conclusions based on faulty analysis is certainly not the same as a credible and solid plan. OP seems to be a great and very capable guy...but may have drank too much political kool aid.

Then parents should hate being manipulated to think that Hardy is inferior and that they shouldn't send their IB kids here until "Scores go up" which obviously won't happen until their kids go there. And they should even hate more being manipulated to being blind to the fact that only so many kids can fit into Deal and that if some of them went to another school with similar SES kids, they would do just as well, because it's the kids, not the building that counts.

Right now, and even comparing only white kids, Hardy is vastly inferior. Can that change? Yes. But please don't try to fool me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am delighted to see all the statistics backing up the point that I perceive as so obvious: The more IB parents families their kids to Hardy, the more scores at Hardy will start reflecting IB families.

What is hard to understand about this? Nothing -- except there have been other psych/perception forces at work over the last few years that have clouded even the most logical/statistical minds.

It seems like the parents who say they are waiting for the scores to go up before they send their kids to Hardy are really saying - they're more influenced by gossip and innuendo than they are by statistics and common sense.

Perhaps they recognize that the emperor has no clothes. The percentage of white kids scoring "advanced" is much higher at Deal than Hardy.

http://profiles.dcps.dc.gov/Compare.aspx?tab=1&school=405,246

Thank you! I had asked OP for this analysis, with no response so far.

Those results debunk this whole thread. The proportion of white kids who score advanced at deal is essentially double than hardy, both in reading and math. Over 50% vs 27%. Over 70% vs 42%. That's certainly not peanuts. And parents notice.

And what do parents determine? That Hardy will not be good enough for their kids until the scores go up, but the scores won't go up until kids like theirs go to Hardy, therefore they will keep waiting, complaining about the scores, sending their kids to private for middle school, if they can't do Deal, then to Wilson for high school where kids like theirs are mingling with Hardy kids and kids from all over DC, but somehow it's OK now.

I predict OP will be back -- but let's give him a break for tonight.

Parents, everywhere, determine that they don't like being manipulated about what is best for their kids. If there is a credible and solid plan and leadership team to improve certain school, a good number of them may opt in. But misleading conclusions based on faulty analysis is certainly not the same as a credible and solid plan. OP seems to be a great and very capable guy...but may have drank too much political kool aid.

Then parents should hate being manipulated to think that Hardy is inferior and that they shouldn't send their IB kids here until "Scores go up" which obviously won't happen until their kids go there. And they should even hate more being manipulated to being blind to the fact that only so many kids can fit into Deal and that if some of them went to another school with similar SES kids, they would do just as well, because it's the kids, not the building that counts.

Right now, and even comparing only white kids, Hardy is vastly inferior. Can that change? Yes. But please don't try to fool me.

There was no attempt to fool anyone. OP was very clear that the stats combined proficient and advanced.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am delighted to see all the statistics backing up the point that I perceive as so obvious: The more IB parents families their kids to Hardy, the more scores at Hardy will start reflecting IB families.

What is hard to understand about this? Nothing -- except there have been other psych/perception forces at work over the last few years that have clouded even the most logical/statistical minds.

It seems like the parents who say they are waiting for the scores to go up before they send their kids to Hardy are really saying - they're more influenced by gossip and innuendo than they are by statistics and common sense.

Perhaps they recognize that the emperor has no clothes. The percentage of white kids scoring "advanced" is much higher at Deal than Hardy.
tha
http://profiles.dcps.dc.gov/Compare.aspx?tab=1&school=405,246

Is there really a concern that if your already advanced kids went to Hardy, their scores would fall? Or is it more likely that their very presence would improve the advanced percentage? Do you think that when your kids move from either middle school to Wilson, they they will be negatively affected by the lower scoring students from around the city?

I haven't looked at the Hardy data myself, but I'm sort of thinking along the same lines as this PP seems to be, in terms of possible explanations for the likely significant difference in % of white advanced performers at Hardy vs. Deal. I wish there was a breakdown for IB vs. OOB among white kids. If Hardy's white kids are mostly OOB, maybe they were not as well prepared academically at other elementaries relative to those white kids at Deal, who are mostly IB. Just a guess.

However, as I'm typing this, I realize this sort of flies in the face of the statement that if you're a white kid from an educated family anywhere in DCPS, you'll likely perform similarly.

Similarly, yes. Identically, no -- Even within families, there are differences in terms of academic talents, interests and performance. But it's also well established, via AP and SAT results that the highest SES group has the overall highest scores.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I totally have a crush on OP.

I bet he is dreamy in real life.

OP, before this goes on too long, can you clear up with the ladies whether or not you are a man?

OP here.

Yes, I am a man. Married, two kids and an awesome dog.

While I find the comments flattering, you should know my wife says I lack -- entirely -- all semblances of empathy.

Are you Italian?

OP here

Italian? No. Though I do have dark hair and blue eyes. (Do Italians have blue eyes? I have no clue, just looking for an excuse to throw that out there.)

I'm American.

My files are on my office computer, so nothing meaningful to reply now. Likely no meaningful reply about differences in advanced-only scores. The small sample sizes greatly limit extrapolation here. The confidence intervals for advanced white scores at Hardy probably include the numbers from Deal. (As an aside, I don't know how to calculate standard errors for an average of averages. Is there a method?) An earlier poster offers a good perspective: is the concern that your "advanced" will somehow magically become just "proficient" if he attended Hardy (and not Deal)? Hey, I don't judge people motives any further than what they say are, but that's a legitimate question.

Happy Easter and other holidays.

[Anonymous]

OP, you actually think that systemic racism is not the reason white kids do better in DCPS? REALLY?
that level of ignorance makes it impossible to take any of your analysis seriously.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP, you actually think that systemic racism is not the reason white kids do better in DCPS? REALLY?
that level of ignorance makes it impossible to take any of your analysis seriously.

Like you, I strongly believe that systematic racism is the real cause of climate change, Middle East wars, the global economic recession, growing obesity rates, and the fact that our dog just ate DC's homework.

As long as OP doesn't prove this, sorry, I cannot be convinced about his objectivity and good intentions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP, you actually think that systemic racism is not the reason white kids do better in DCPS? REALLY?
that level of ignorance makes it impossible to take any of your analysis seriously.

what then is the cause for white children of college educated parents doing better than white children of parents who are not college educated?

Let's face it, you're just looking for reasons not to take the analysis seriously because it doesn't fit with whatever you already think.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, you actually think that systemic racism is not the reason white kids do better in DCPS? REALLY?
that level of ignorance makes it impossible to take any of your analysis seriously.

Like you, I strongly believe that systematic racism is the real cause of climate change, Middle East wars, the global economic recession, growing obesity rates, and the fact that our dog just ate DC's homework.

As long as OP doesn't prove this, sorry, I cannot be convinced about his objectivity and good intentions.

ditto, plus knowing that he has dark hair and blue eyes raises my suspicions greatly. I'm glad that piece of info came out. But why didn't he tell us sooner?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, you actually think that systemic racism is not the reason white kids do better in DCPS? REALLY?
that level of ignorance makes it impossible to take any of your analysis seriously.

Like you, I strongly believe that systematic racism is the real cause of climate change, Middle East wars, the global economic recession, growing obesity rates, and the fact that our dog just ate DC's homework.

As long as OP doesn't prove this, sorry, I cannot be convinced about his objectivity and good intentions.

ditto, plus knowing that he has dark hair and blue eyes raises my suspicions greatly. I'm glad that piece of info came out. But why didn't he tell us sooner?

You need to ask why?

Systematic racism against Tom Cruise types.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I totally have a crush on OP.

I bet he is dreamy in real life.

OP, before this goes on too long, can you clear up with the ladies whether or not you are a man?

OP here.

Yes, I am a man. Married, two kids and an awesome dog.

While I find the comments flattering, you should know my wife says I lack -- entirely -- all semblances of empathy.

So OP is man, married (demanding wife), two kids and one dog. Works either at the IMF, World Bank (I'd exclude the IADB for several reasons), US Treasury, Board of Federal Reserve or Dept. of Economics at Georgetown, AU or GW. Went to work early on 4/2 and was seen crunching numbers early in the morning. Any other clues?

Could be Urban Institute, Brookings, or a number of other policy outfits (Mathematica, AIR, Westat, etc.), CBO, etc.