Jeff Selingo on people skipping "target schools"

[Anonymous]

my fav is the kid who - out of 4000 schools - just happens to "just feel right" at mom or dad's old school. lol. "fit" lol.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think it is great that people are skipping "target schools" and going to state flagships. Look where UMD is today. All the students from PHS, RMIB, Centennial, Blair, TJ etc - who got rejected from MIT just because they were a certain demographic and overrepresented (read Asian American and male), came to UMD and they have changed its ranking profoundly. In fact, there are more MIT caliber students in UMD than MIT itself because of UMD's size.

UMD is also providing the perks to attract these students. Merit scholarships and free tuition is one thing. But they have also provided ample opportunities to do research and internships in the college itself. A name brand college can give you leg up in life. But, a state flagship can also give you the same leg up if you save money and resume and skill building opportunities are given to you. As for the level of instruction? Pretty much similar. There are many perks to be in college park because it is located in a strategic location.

In the end, if these students are driving a brand new car and have cash in their retirement fund at 23 then good for them. Why pay $$$ for a good college education when you can get it for free?

for a minute, I thought I wrote this.

This is my DC who went to one of those magnets, super high stats, CS major, with merit at UMD.

[Anonymous]

These “skippable” schools seem to have screwed the pooch by following in the footsteps of the Ivies. They need to maintain very high standards visible to all in order to compete. The Ivies can coast (for awhile…) on their prestige and massive endowments.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Markets will adjust and Ivy-plus will begin offering more made or reducing cost of attendance in other ways.

+1 This!

At some point the 'bubble' will burst and even the Ivy-plus schools will have to adjust as there won't be enough people with the requisite stats and also wealthy enough to pay for 5%+ expense increases per year. Either they'd have to significantly lower standards to let in others who can afford it or get creative with pricing and aid (eg. do what Purdue U. is doing) in order to maintain standards. Bubbles eventually burst no matter how long it takes, circa 2008 Real Estate.

Ivy+ are need blind and meet 100% need. So don't hold your breath for anything to change.

You will have to be poor or rich to attend these schools.

They have made it impossible for the vast majority of middle income families that will get zero aid.

That is what is starting to happen at these top need-blind schools that cost an arm and leg. You have the poor Pell grant kids or kids that get massive need-based aid (parents make under $75-110k) and then you get the families that are making $500k+ (or $300-400 in low cost areas--not the DMV).

So the campuses are going to be pretty much like its getting in America...the very rich and the very poor.

It's not good for anyone. The mid gets screwed.

$150k-220k are effed.

+1 not sure what kind of diversity these colleges are looking for, but it sure won't be family income. They effectively have two income classes in their expensive schools, and very little in between. Not very diverse.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Truthfully, as a slightly higher than donut hole range family---it's hard to justify $85k-90k year at even the top 10 schools. It's gotten way out of hand!

If you haven’t saved for it, yes. But if you’ve been saving you would have 300k+ in a 529 and then you realize, this is exactly why we saved and let your kid attend if it’s their first choice

It’s great to have the money so you have the choice. But you still have to ask, regarding a $350k private school vs a state flagship, “is this the best use of the money?”

If you have fully saved for retirement, are not living life on credit, and pay all your bills, that determination is up to each person. Some of us value education and view it as our parental responsibility to help our kids graduate debt free. So we make it a priority since they were little.

And for most of us who have saved that much when we only make $200-250K/year, the answers is "yes" we believe it is a good use of money.

Thanks for the condescension 🙄 but I value education and nevertheless do not believe the only place one can obtain it is a $350k private school.

I “only” make $225k and I have enough saved to pay for a private but there is certainly a good case for paying less for undergrad and doing something else with the unspent savings (grad school, down payment on a house, pass it on to grandchildren, etc).

That is your choice and obviously a choice many people make. Does not make it the wrong choice for others, as long as they are not going into debt/making retirement unreasonable.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Markets will adjust and Ivy-plus will begin offering more made or reducing cost of attendance in other ways.

+1 This!

At some point the 'bubble' will burst and even the Ivy-plus schools will have to adjust as there won't be enough people with the requisite stats and also wealthy enough to pay for 5%+ expense increases per year. Either they'd have to significantly lower standards to let in others who can afford it or get creative with pricing and aid (eg. do what Purdue U. is doing) in order to maintain standards. Bubbles eventually burst no matter how long it takes, circa 2008 Real Estate.

Ivy+ are need blind and meet 100% need. So don't hold your breath for anything to change.

You will have to be poor or rich to attend these schools.

They have made it impossible for the vast majority of middle income families that will get zero aid.

That is what is starting to happen at these top need-blind schools that cost an arm and leg. You have the poor Pell grant kids or kids that get massive need-based aid (parents make under $75-110k) and then you get the families that are making $500k+ (or $300-400 in low cost areas--not the DMV).

So the campuses are going to be pretty much like its getting in America...the very rich and the very poor.

It's not good for anyone. The mid gets screwed.

$150k-220k are effed.

+1 not sure what kind of diversity these colleges are looking for, but it sure won't be family income. They effectively have two income classes in their expensive schools, and very little in between. Not very diverse.

+2 not socioeconomically diverse at all. Rich and poor.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:In the 1990s, my father told me you get into an Ivy or you go to state u. Motivated me to get into an Ivy, which I did. Of course, that was when you really just needed excellent grades and high scores.

It sort of doesn't make sense to pay Cadillac prices for a Chevy when you've got a perfectly good Toyota at half the cost.

Some of us do not consider schools ranked 30-50 “Chevy” caliber. We view them as top notch and worth the cost to us, especially if it’s the right fit for our kid

Ok, they’re not charging Cadillac prices for a Chevy, they’re charging Maserati prices for a Lexus. You got a great car… but you paid too much for it.

Your analogy just doesn't work for everyone. Use it against your own kids to force them to go to a state flagship. But you're mistaken if you think it's the same answer for every other family. You don't know their situations and their decision-making process.

I’m not going to “use it against my kid”. He’s smart enough to understand bang for the buck and to understand that the 529 is ALL the money there is for both undergrad and grad. I am confident he will choose wisely.

If other people choose to pay a Maserati price for a Lexus 🤷 I don’t need to understand their decision process to know they overpaid.

Good to hear you’ll keep the poor analogy in the family.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:my fav is the kid who - out of 4000 schools - just happens to "just feel right" at mom or dad's old school. lol. "fit" lol.

My Alma mater is T10 with a great engineering school, great LA college, great theater program (T5, likely top 1-2--name someone in Hollywood and there's at least a 30% chance they have a connection), great journalism program (T1-3 for decades), great music program (T5-10 for decades, depends upon the instrument), great Premed, just outside an awesome city, on one of the most beautiful campuses around. It's also T20 for my kid's major (if you buy into rankings for undergrad majors, T10 for PHD programs for their intended major). Also big into sports and part of a major conference in NCAA and yet small to mid size school (no 40K+ roaming campus).
Kid had the stats for the school, but it's a damn lottery. So yes, my kid loves the school. So do many many other kids. Ironically, they didn't love the other parent's alma mater, which is a "higher ranked school" or several other T20-30 they researched Why? Because it really is not the right environment for my kid.
My kid also had 4-5 other schools in the T50 that they really liked.

[Anonymous]

Studies show college doesn't matter two jobs post-graduation. then it flips to experience.

I could make the case for a place like ND maybe with extraordinary alumni cults, but the brotherhood of the old Yalies etc really died out has really aged out. Was big enough for my dad's generation but I've been in tech since 1990 and I just don't see it.

Maybe in consulting or sales?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:my fav is the kid who - out of 4000 schools - just happens to "just feel right" at mom or dad's old school. lol. "fit" lol.

My Alma mater is T10 with a great engineering school, great LA college, great theater program (T5, likely top 1-2--name someone in Hollywood and there's at least a 30% chance they have a connection), great journalism program (T1-3 for decades), great music program (T5-10 for decades, depends upon the instrument), great Premed, just outside an awesome city, on one of the most beautiful campuses around. It's also T20 for my kid's major (if you buy into rankings for undergrad majors, T10 for PHD programs for their intended major). Also big into sports and part of a major conference in NCAA and yet small to mid size school (no 40K+ roaming campus).
Kid had the stats for the school, but it's a damn lottery. So yes, my kid loves the school. So do many many other kids. Ironically, they didn't love the other parent's alma mater, which is a "higher ranked school" or several other T20-30 they researched Why? Because it really is not the right environment for my kid.
My kid also had 4-5 other schools in the T50 that they really liked.

too many words about you you you. not interesting

[Anonymous]

this weird hyper focus on T10 this and T5 that and T20 this. who does this?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think it is great that people are skipping "target schools" and going to state flagships. Look where UMD is today. All the students from PHS, RMIB, Centennial, Blair, TJ etc - who got rejected from MIT just because they were a certain demographic and overrepresented (read Asian American and male), came to UMD and they have changed its ranking profoundly. In fact, there are more MIT caliber students in UMD than MIT itself because of UMD's size.

UMD is also providing the perks to attract these students. Merit scholarships and free tuition is one thing. But they have also provided ample opportunities to do research and internships in the college itself. A name brand college can give you leg up in life. But, a state flagship can also give you the same leg up if you save money and resume and skill building opportunities are given to you. As for the level of instruction? Pretty much similar. There are many perks to be in college park because it is located in a strategic location.

In the end, if these students are driving a brand new car and have cash in their retirement fund at 23 then good for them. Why pay $$$ for a good college education when you can get it for free?

There are all these little lies we tell ourselves to make us feel better and this is one of them. UMD is a great school with a top program, but it is not filled with more MIT-caliber students than MIT.

The Putnam Math Competition is one of the most prominent college math competitions. Go click on this list of winners: https://maa.org/sites/default/files/pdf/Putnam/2022/AnnouncementOfWinnersFall2022.docx%20%281%29.pdf

Out of the Top 25 finalists, 21 are from MIT. Out of the top 100, UMD had two finalists. I didn't count them all up, but MIT probably had 70.

For the team competition...yeah MIT won that. UMD finished a very respectable 4th.

This is not to knock UMD, but you think MIT turned down your kid for some reason other than there were better candidates for MIT.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Truthfully, as a slightly higher than donut hole range family---it's hard to justify $85k-90k year at even the top 10 schools. It's gotten way out of hand!

If you haven’t saved for it, yes. But if you’ve been saving you would have 300k+ in a 529 and then you realize, this is exactly why we saved and let your kid attend if it’s their first choice

Not if you were saving in a 529. This is a huge problem. If you saved in a 529 you should have enough to cover your instate flagship.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:💯 Last year had merit offers from CWRU, BU and Lehigh. Enrolled at UMD.

Well, I bet your merit offers didn’t get the all-in price below $60k at those schools. Maybe at Case - but Lehigh and BU don’t give enough merit and nowadays you’re looking at over $80k a year all in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:my kids list was fully this:

Ivy plus
Good matches that offered merit, including international schools.

In the end, he really had a hard time deciding btw the full pay ivy plus and the merit at Denison (with money for grad school). But had he had a full pay middlebury or full pay Colby or full pay BC option, he would have scratched those without a second thought. Which is why he didn't bother.

The only thing is you really have to show a lot of interest and/or don't pick schools known to yield. Or have an international school you feel good about. Or you could end up with nothing, I guess.

No way do you end up with nothing. Every year there is a list that shows colleges, including some of these 30 - 50 “flyover” schools with spaces still available. Your kid will get in somewhere.