There is so much we don't know about the virus - and here's another reason to be cautious

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Kawasaki disease is VERY treatable if caught early.

Please keep this in perspective.

But what are the early symptoms? The reports on this I've seen are fever and maybe a rash. My DD had a fever for the last couple of days (probably teething?) and a terrible rash on her legs that we assume is eczema. There's NO WAY IN HELL people with kids that only have those symptoms are taking them to the doctor/ER during a pandemic. Should we? I still have no idea, and I've been reading articles on this topic all morning.

It's all well and good to say "catch it early and you'll be fine" but we don't really know what it looks like and you have to weigh the risks of taking a kid in to the doctor against the risk of underreacting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My friend's kid has Kawasaki and it's awful for them so this is very concerning for us

It’s extremely treatable if you catch it early.

And easy to prevent - like social distancing.

[Anonymous]

^^play out

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And please don't recite "just 15 kids" because your Google search stopped with one article specific to New York City.

That's misleading and irresponsible.

NY state has 300k+ confirmed cases. We can deduce from that fact that this isnt that prevalent given that only theyve found this in only 15 kids.

1. How many of those 300k+ confirmed cases are in children? You have the utterly wrong denominator -- adults don't get Kawasaki Syndrome.
2. As I have mentioned previously, typical Kawasaki is hard enough to recognize, and "atypical Kawasaki" presentations are much moreso.
3. There's a long subacute phase (up to 6 weeks), and an unknown latent period after whatever triggered it.
4. Most parents are only bringing children in when symptoms are severe for anything, right now.

That doesn't mean there is definitely a wave of very sick children just waiting to crest.

It absolutely, positively, undeniably means that minimizing this and not acknowledging a real and serious potential problem is noting but ignorance or malice.

There are 4088 children in NYC with confirmed COVID cases. 6 of them have died; all of those children had underlying conditions.

So that means that Kawasaki has been found in 0.4% of confirmed cases. Take the fact that antibody testing in NYC suggests the actual case count is about 5 times higher than the confirmed case count, that means the 15 kids in NYC represent .07% of the probable total number of pediatric COVID cases in NYC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Kawasaki disease is VERY treatable if caught early.

Please keep this in perspective.

But what are the early symptoms? The reports on this I've seen are fever and maybe a rash. My DD had a fever for the last couple of days (probably teething?) and a terrible rash on her legs that we assume is eczema. There's NO WAY IN HELL people with kids that only have those symptoms are taking them to the doctor/ER during a pandemic. Should we? I still have no idea, and I've been reading articles on this topic all morning.

It's all well and good to say "catch it early and you'll be fine" but we don't really know what it looks like and you have to weigh the risks of taking a kid in to the doctor against the risk of underreacting.

If you read the articles, you’d see that it’s a high fever—above about 102–for more than 3 days. If that happens, call your pediatrician and bring your kid in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My friend's kid has Kawasaki and it's awful for them so this is very concerning for us

It’s extremely treatable if you catch it early.

How many people are taking their kids to the ped office for a rash right now though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:New syndrome in kids may be linked to covid:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?type=styln-live-updates&label=new%20york%20&index=2&action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-1aca38d0

"Fifteen children, many of whom had the coronavirus, have recently been hospitalized in New York City with a mysterious syndrome that doctors do not yet fully understand but that has also been reported in several European countries, health officials announced on Monday night.

Many of the children, ages 2 to 15, have shown symptoms associated with toxic shock or Kawasaki disease, a rare illness in children that involves inflammation of the blood vessels, including coronary arteries, the city’s health department said..."

Yes, I am a pediatrician, and there is a lot of discussion about this behind the scenes.

Can you tell us more?

I would like to know if they are suggesting that COVID-19 causes Kawasaki disease? Or are they saying that Kawasaki disease is COVID-19? I’m sorry if I seem dense I am trying to understand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:New syndrome in kids may be linked to covid:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?type=styln-live-updates&label=new%20york%20&index=2&action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-1aca38d0

"Fifteen children, many of whom had the coronavirus, have recently been hospitalized in New York City with a mysterious syndrome that doctors do not yet fully understand but that has also been reported in several European countries, health officials announced on Monday night.

Many of the children, ages 2 to 15, have shown symptoms associated with toxic shock or Kawasaki disease, a rare illness in children that involves inflammation of the blood vessels, including coronary arteries, the city’s health department said..."

Yes, I am a pediatrician, and there is a lot of discussion about this behind the scenes.

Can you tell us more?

I would like to know if they are suggesting that COVID-19 causes Kawasaki disease? Or are they saying that Kawasaki disease is COVID-19? I’m sorry if I seem dense I am trying to understand.

There’s a thought that the two might be linked.

It’s worth noting that there was also a theory that SARS and Kawasaki might be linked, but it was proven false.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And please don't recite "just 15 kids" because your Google search stopped with one article specific to New York City.

That's misleading and irresponsible.

NY state has 300k+ confirmed cases. We can deduce from that fact that this isnt that prevalent given that only theyve found this in only 15 kids.

1. How many of those 300k+ confirmed cases are in children? You have the utterly wrong denominator -- adults don't get Kawasaki Syndrome.
2. As I have mentioned previously, typical Kawasaki is hard enough to recognize, and "atypical Kawasaki" presentations are much moreso.
3. There's a long subacute phase (up to 6 weeks), and an unknown latent period after whatever triggered it.
4. Most parents are only bringing children in when symptoms are severe for anything, right now.

That doesn't mean there is definitely a wave of very sick children just waiting to crest.

It absolutely, positively, undeniably means that minimizing this and not acknowledging a real and serious potential problem is noting but ignorance or malice.

There are 4088 children in NYC with confirmed COVID cases. 6 of them have died; all of those children had underlying conditions.

So that means that Kawasaki has been found in 0.4% of confirmed cases. Take the fact that antibody testing in NYC suggests the actual case count is about 5 times higher than the confirmed case count, that means the 15 kids in NYC represent .07% of the probable total number of pediatric COVID cases in NYC.

Are you extrapolating from adult data to pediatric? That's not justified.

And we've now moved from 300+K cases in the denominator to less than 1/60 that. I do not have confidence in your reasoning. I especially do not have confidence that you know enough about this particular syndrome to understand why this is quite potentially just the tip of the iceburg.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And please don't recite "just 15 kids" because your Google search stopped with one article specific to New York City.

That's misleading and irresponsible.

NY state has 300k+ confirmed cases. We can deduce from that fact that this isnt that prevalent given that only theyve found this in only 15 kids.

1. How many of those 300k+ confirmed cases are in children? You have the utterly wrong denominator -- adults don't get Kawasaki Syndrome.
2. As I have mentioned previously, typical Kawasaki is hard enough to recognize, and "atypical Kawasaki" presentations are much moreso.
3. There's a long subacute phase (up to 6 weeks), and an unknown latent period after whatever triggered it.
4. Most parents are only bringing children in when symptoms are severe for anything, right now.

That doesn't mean there is definitely a wave of very sick children just waiting to crest.

It absolutely, positively, undeniably means that minimizing this and not acknowledging a real and serious potential problem is noting but ignorance or malice.

There are 4088 children in NYC with confirmed COVID cases. 6 of them have died; all of those children had underlying conditions.

So that means that Kawasaki has been found in 0.4% of confirmed cases. Take the fact that antibody testing in NYC suggests the actual case count is about 5 times higher than the confirmed case count, that means the 15 kids in NYC represent .07% of the probable total number of pediatric COVID cases in NYC.

Are you extrapolating from adult data to pediatric? That's not justified.

And we've now moved from 300+K cases in the denominator to less than 1/60 that. I do not have confidence in your reasoning. I especially do not have confidence that you know enough about this particular syndrome to understand why this is quite potentially just the tip of the iceburg.

What? It’s reasonable to assume that the age distribution of the confirmed and actual cases would be roughly the same. Why wouldn’t it? They did antibody testing on a representative sample.

So I really don’t get your problem with the reasoning.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And please don't recite "just 15 kids" because your Google search stopped with one article specific to New York City.

That's misleading and irresponsible.

NY state has 300k+ confirmed cases. We can deduce from that fact that this isnt that prevalent given that only theyve found this in only 15 kids.

1. How many of those 300k+ confirmed cases are in children? You have the utterly wrong denominator -- adults don't get Kawasaki Syndrome.
2. As I have mentioned previously, typical Kawasaki is hard enough to recognize, and "atypical Kawasaki" presentations are much moreso.
3. There's a long subacute phase (up to 6 weeks), and an unknown latent period after whatever triggered it.
4. Most parents are only bringing children in when symptoms are severe for anything, right now.

That doesn't mean there is definitely a wave of very sick children just waiting to crest.

It absolutely, positively, undeniably means that minimizing this and not acknowledging a real and serious potential problem is noting but ignorance or malice.

There are 4088 children in NYC with confirmed COVID cases. 6 of them have died; all of those children had underlying conditions.

So that means that Kawasaki has been found in 0.4% of confirmed cases. Take the fact that antibody testing in NYC suggests the actual case count is about 5 times higher than the confirmed case count, that means the 15 kids in NYC represent .07% of the probable total number of pediatric COVID cases in NYC.

Are you extrapolating from adult data to pediatric? That's not justified.

And we've now moved from 300+K cases in the denominator to less than 1/60 that. I do not have confidence in your reasoning. I especially do not have confidence that you know enough about this particular syndrome to understand why this is quite potentially just the tip of the iceburg.

What? It’s reasonable to assume that the age distribution of the confirmed and actual cases would be roughly the same. Why wouldn’t it? They did antibody testing on a representative sample.

So I really don’t get your problem with the reasoning.

You are assuming the adult antibody response is the same as children's? With that, I know you are not trained in pediatric medicine.

[Anonymous]

So this pandemic has been going on since November. Why would kids SUDDENLY start to develop Kawasaki in enormous numbers from it?

It just doesn’t make sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And please don't recite "just 15 kids" because your Google search stopped with one article specific to New York City.

That's misleading and irresponsible.

NY state has 300k+ confirmed cases. We can deduce from that fact that this isnt that prevalent given that only theyve found this in only 15 kids.

1. How many of those 300k+ confirmed cases are in children? You have the utterly wrong denominator -- adults don't get Kawasaki Syndrome.
2. As I have mentioned previously, typical Kawasaki is hard enough to recognize, and "atypical Kawasaki" presentations are much moreso.
3. There's a long subacute phase (up to 6 weeks), and an unknown latent period after whatever triggered it.
4. Most parents are only bringing children in when symptoms are severe for anything, right now.

That doesn't mean there is definitely a wave of very sick children just waiting to crest.

It absolutely, positively, undeniably means that minimizing this and not acknowledging a real and serious potential problem is noting but ignorance or malice.

There are 4088 children in NYC with confirmed COVID cases. 6 of them have died; all of those children had underlying conditions.

So that means that Kawasaki has been found in 0.4% of confirmed cases. Take the fact that antibody testing in NYC suggests the actual case count is about 5 times higher than the confirmed case count, that means the 15 kids in NYC represent .07% of the probable total number of pediatric COVID cases in NYC.

Are you extrapolating from adult data to pediatric? That's not justified.

And we've now moved from 300+K cases in the denominator to less than 1/60 that. I do not have confidence in your reasoning. I especially do not have confidence that you know enough about this particular syndrome to understand why this is quite potentially just the tip of the iceburg.

What? It’s reasonable to assume that the age distribution of the confirmed and actual cases would be roughly the same. Why wouldn’t it? They did antibody testing on a representative sample.

So I really don’t get your problem with the reasoning.

You are assuming the adult antibody response is the same as children's? With that, I know you are not trained in pediatric medicine.

Huh?! I’m assuming the antibody testing was done in a representative sample, such that you can extrapolate the number of actual cases from the number of confirmed cases in each age group.

It’s basic statistics.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:New syndrome in kids may be linked to covid:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?type=styln-live-updates&label=new%20york%20&index=2&action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-1aca38d0

"Fifteen children, many of whom had the coronavirus, have recently been hospitalized in New York City with a mysterious syndrome that doctors do not yet fully understand but that has also been reported in several European countries, health officials announced on Monday night.

Many of the children, ages 2 to 15, have shown symptoms associated with toxic shock or Kawasaki disease, a rare illness in children that involves inflammation of the blood vessels, including coronary arteries, the city’s health department said..."

Yes, I am a pediatrician, and there is a lot of discussion about this behind the scenes.

Can you tell us more?

I would like to know if they are suggesting that COVID-19 causes Kawasaki disease? Or are they saying that Kawasaki disease is COVID-19? I’m sorry if I seem dense I am trying to understand.

There’s a thought that the two might be linked.

It’s worth noting that there was also a theory that SARS and Kawasaki might be linked, but it was proven false.

Thank you for explaining. It’s interesting because I didn’t think Kawasaki disease was contagious so it’s curious to see if there is a link.

[Anonymous]

Also, I’m not talking about an antibody response. I’m talking about the antibody testing that was done in NYC to estimate the true number of COVID cases.

I’m doing that to estimate the commonality of Kawasaki among NYC COVID-positive children.