Reply to There is so much we don't know about the virus - and here's another reason to be cautious

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Reply to "There is so much we don't know about the virus - and here's another reason to be cautious "

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]And please don't recite "just 15 kids" because your Google search stopped with one article specific to New York City.

That's misleading and irresponsible. [/quote]

NY state has 300k+ confirmed cases. We can deduce from that fact that this isnt that prevalent given that only theyve found this in only 15 kids. [/quote]

1. How many  of those 300k+ confirmed cases are in children? You have the utterly wrong denominator -- adults don't get Kawasaki Syndrome.
2. As I have mentioned previously, typical Kawasaki is hard enough to recognize, and "atypical Kawasaki" presentations are much moreso.
3. There's a long subacute phase (up to 6 weeks), and an unknown latent period after whatever triggered it.
4. Most parents are only bringing children in when symptoms are severe for anything, right now.

That doesn't mean there is definitely a wave of very sick children just waiting to crest.

It absolutely, positively, undeniably means that minimizing this and not acknowledging a real and serious potential problem is noting but ignorance or malice. [/quote]

There are 4088 children in NYC with confirmed COVID cases. 6 of them have died; all of those children had underlying conditions.

So that means that Kawasaki has been found in 0.4% of confirmed cases. [b]Take the fact that antibody testing in NYC suggests the actual case count is about 5 times higher than the confirmed case count,[/b] that means the 15 kids in NYC represent .07% of the probable total number of pediatric COVID cases in NYC.[/quote]

Are you extrapolating from adult data to pediatric? That's not justified.

And we've now moved from 300+K cases in the denominator to less than 1/60 that. I do not have confidence in your reasoning. I especially do not have confidence that you know enough about this particular syndrome to understand why this is quite potentially just the tip of the iceburg. [/quote]

What? It’s reasonable to assume that the age distribution of the confirmed and actual cases would be roughly the same. Why wouldn’t it? They did antibody testing on a representative sample.

So I really don’t get your problem with the reasoning.[/quote]

You are assuming the adult antibody response is the same as children's? With that, I know you are not trained in pediatric medicine. [/quote]

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