Impact of continued loss of federal jobs for the region

[Anonymous]

The median price of a house in the DC metro region is 475,00. If two members of a household are GS 13s (and chances are one would go higher at least eventually) then they might have a 190,000 income.

That fed famly might pay 2400 PITI for that median home.

I'm not honestly seeing the problem of feds affording a home. Do they automatically win a home in Bethesda? Nope. Will they be able to buy in Georgetown? Probably not. But that's been out of range for a while now.

DC has a pretty darn good job market now. This metro region exists because of that. I don't see the job market becoming terrible any time soon.

Also, I love living here. I can't stand the traffic, true, but my neighborhood is getting more and more walkable amenities by the week. And I have walking trails and movie theaters. Maybe five of each within a mile or so. And 20 museums within two miles.

Life is good here. I lived in a great suburb in the South as a kid. What did that get me compared to here? Better chain stores closer to my house. A big yard.

I'll take a cosmopolitan, educated populace and a more dense city with world class museums over Kansas any day.

I don't expect it to come cheap either. But honestly, what I paid to buy in this city, and what's it's going for now? I'm not convinced it's overpriced for what I get.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Which means more tourism revenue for DC. Bottom line - it’s good for us regardless.

Good news is good news and bad news is good news! This poster should be President of the National Realtors Association.

Just realistic PP. I've had friends begging for a downturn/bubble since 2011. Guess what -- we're in another year of record growth and they're still priced out.

Trying to turn so-so news of a few federal middle-class households who live in Chantilly anyway being forced to move out of the region into some big thing for the entirety of a crazy metro real estate market is foolish.

Greater Washington jumped to second nationally for construction starts in 2018

https://www.bizjournals.com/washington/news/2019/02/15/greater-washington-jumped-to-second-nationally-for.html

The 50 States of Construction: DC's building boom driven by more than the government

https://www.constructiondive.com/news/the-50-states-of-construction-dcs-building-boom-driven-by-more-than-the-g/436587/

Amazon’s Virginia HQ2 Is Causing a Real Estate Boom

https://observer.com/2019/05/amazon-virginia-hq2-real-estate-boom/

you are just proving his point further

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Which means more tourism revenue for DC. Bottom line - it’s good for us regardless.

Good news is good news and bad news is good news! This poster should be President of the National Realtors Association.

Just realistic PP. I've had friends begging for a downturn/bubble since 2011. Guess what -- we're in another year of record growth and they're still priced out.

Trying to turn so-so news of a few federal middle-class households who live in Chantilly anyway being forced to move out of the region into some big thing for the entirety of a crazy metro real estate market is foolish.

Greater Washington jumped to second nationally for construction starts in 2018

https://www.bizjournals.com/washington/news/2019/02/15/greater-washington-jumped-to-second-nationally-for.html

The 50 States of Construction: DC's building boom driven by more than the government

https://www.constructiondive.com/news/the-50-states-of-construction-dcs-building-boom-driven-by-more-than-the-g/436587/

Amazon’s Virginia HQ2 Is Causing a Real Estate Boom

https://observer.com/2019/05/amazon-virginia-hq2-real-estate-boom/

you are just proving his point further

*shrug* Facts are facts. Sorry that makes you bitter.

[Anonymous]

Around here, you just wait for another administration to come to town.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The median price of a house in the DC metro region is 475,00. If two members of a household are GS 13s (and chances are one would go higher at least eventually) then they might have a 190,000 income.

That fed famly might pay 2400 PITI for that median home.

The "DC metro area" extends as far as West Virginia, but realistically, the only areas that matter when we're talking about affordability are those that are within a reasonable commuting distance (less than an hour) from downtown DC.

I'm a single government employee looking to purchase a condo. It's very difficult to find a one-bedroom condo in DC that is $2400 all-in. A typical listing is $500k plus monthly condo fees of $500+. Let's not talk about two bedrooms or even one bedroom + den. I'm looking at monthly expenses of $3000+, which is a loooooong stretch on my $100k salary.

Using your $190,000 example and typical affordability guidelines, that dual income GS-13 couple should not spend more than 3-4x their income, or $760k for a home.

The run-down 2br/1ba row houses in NE/SE that sold for $300k ten years ago are now having bidding wars at $760k. Out of reach for a single government employee, and not quite large enough for a family. But there are plenty of flippers and high-earning, non-fed DINKs who continue to push those prices higher and higher.

I also think that people who purchased during 2008-2015 have NO idea how wacky things have become. When I tell my coworkers that I pay $2500 for rent on a one-bedroom apartment, they laugh at me for wasting money and say that their mortgage on their 3br SFH in Falls Church is less than that. Good luck finding anything even remotely close to that in the same neighborhoods in 2019.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The median price of a house in the DC metro region is 475,00. If two members of a household are GS 13s (and chances are one would go higher at least eventually) then they might have a 190,000 income.

That fed famly might pay 2400 PITI for that median home.

The "DC metro area" extends as far as West Virginia, but realistically, the only areas that matter when we're talking about affordability are those that are within a reasonable commuting distance (less than an hour) from downtown DC.

I'm a single government employee looking to purchase a condo. It's very difficult to find a one-bedroom condo in DC that is $2400 all-in. A typical listing is $500k plus monthly condo fees of $500+. Let's not talk about two bedrooms or even one bedroom + den. I'm looking at monthly expenses of $3000+, which is a loooooong stretch on my $100k salary.

Using your $190,000 example and typical affordability guidelines, that dual income GS-13 couple should not spend more than 3-4x their income, or $760k for a home.

The run-down 2br/1ba row houses in NE/SE that sold for $300k ten years ago are now having bidding wars at $760k. Out of reach for a single government employee, and not quite large enough for a family. But there are plenty of flippers and high-earning, non-fed DINKs who continue to push those prices higher and higher.

I also think that people who purchased during 2008-2015 have NO idea how wacky things have become. When I tell my coworkers that I pay $2500 for rent on a one-bedroom apartment, they laugh at me for wasting money and say that their mortgage on their 3br SFH in Falls Church is less than that. Good luck finding anything even remotely close to that in the same neighborhoods in 2019.

I honestly think that this is part of the reason 90% of the USDA scientists are so pissed about the relocation.

They know they're going to take a paycut if they go to Kansas and they can't afford a house there AND keep the house in the D.C. market which is infinitely more valuable.

So they have to sell it. And then the cycle basically ensures if they come back to D.C. there's no way they can afford to buy-in again.

Not with prices continuously escalating and a lower salary eliminating the ability to make hefty downpayments. They're screwed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The typical GS-13 can no longer afford to buy a home in the DC area. Losing those jobs will have zero effect on the local housing market.

I agree that one GS-13 salary isn’t going to be able to afford to buy a single family house anywhere moderately close-in to the DC area, except for maybe very, very small houses in places like Wheaton or PG. They could maybe buy a condo though, or an old, very small townhouse within walking distance to the metro in Silver Spring. However, most GS-13s aren’t single wage earners supporting a family. If they’re married, they’re married to another professional bringing. With both incomes, then they can afford to buy a SFH somewhere in the DC metro area. This is why it’s tough on feds to move out of the metro - especially with little warning about exactly where they’re going - if they go, they’re usually uprooting a second career as well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The typical GS-13 can no longer afford to buy a home in the DC area.

BS. The typical GS-13 can afford to buy a home in the DC area. There are a lot of affordable places in this area.
People want luxury places to be affordable. That's not reasonable. The median home price in the area is not even $500k.
A GS-13 can definitely afford a $500k house.
But this is what people want to be affordable:
- A beautiful and renovated 3000+ sq ft SFH
- A big yard
- Excellent schools rated 9+
- a 10min commute to the workplace
- a great neighborhood

These places are not affordable anywhere in the world.
Be realistic and reasonable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Honestly IMO -- the effect will be almost negligible.

The majority of federal jobs being moved are middle management and paper pushers for satellite offices.

So yes - USDA is heading to Kansas/Missouri, 3.5K of FBI is moving to Alabama, and BLM is moving...somewhere. But DoD is going nowhere, the majority of high security contractors are staying here and the lobbyists and tech developers (the real moneymakers) are growing.

I will happily take the 30,000 Amazon employees, 1,000 Google employees, and a couple hundred Facebook employees, and all of the New York millionaires moving down here in exchange for the loss of 4,000 or so feds moving to the middle of the country. Not to mention the relocation of Virginia Tech's campus and John Hopkins.

D.C. is booming.

Oh goodness. Johns Hopkins is not relocating.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Honestly IMO -- the effect will be almost negligible.

The majority of federal jobs being moved are middle management and paper pushers for satellite offices.

So yes - USDA is heading to Kansas/Missouri, 3.5K of FBI is moving to Alabama, and BLM is moving...somewhere. But DoD is going nowhere, the majority of high security contractors are staying here and the lobbyists and tech developers (the real moneymakers) are growing.

I will happily take the 30,000 Amazon employees, 1,000 Google employees, and a couple hundred Facebook employees, and all of the New York millionaires moving down here in exchange for the loss of 4,000 or so feds moving to the middle of the country. Not to mention the relocation of Virginia Tech's campus and John Hopkins.

D.C. is booming.

Oh goodness. Johns Hopkins is not relocating.

A $400 million investment in a new campus says something else. But yes, they are staying on their main campus under armed militia guard for the foreseeable future.

“We have wanted to bring all of our activities together into one facility and also have increasingly wanted to be able to bring some of our programs and research activities that are currently in Baltimore and elsewhere to Washington,” Daniels said. “We are hoping that with this new facility we’ll be able to offer more opportunities for undergraduates to do, for instance, internships and policy-related seminars and other activities in Washington. This becomes a wonderful portal for us to bring undergraduate and graduate students who are currently in Baltimore to Washington for relatively discrete periods of time.”

- Hopkins President Ronald J. Daniels

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Honestly IMO -- the effect will be almost negligible.

The majority of federal jobs being moved are middle management and paper pushers for satellite offices.

So yes - USDA is heading to Kansas/Missouri, 3.5K of FBI is moving to Alabama, and BLM is moving...somewhere. But DoD is going nowhere, the majority of high security contractors are staying here and the lobbyists and tech developers (the real moneymakers) are growing.

I will happily take the 30,000 Amazon employees, 1,000 Google employees, and a couple hundred Facebook employees, and all of the New York millionaires moving down here in exchange for the loss of 4,000 or so feds moving to the middle of the country. Not to mention the relocation of Virginia Tech's campus and John Hopkins.

D.C. is booming.

Oh goodness. Johns Hopkins is not relocating.

A $400 million investment in a new campus says something else. But yes, they are staying on their main campus under armed militia guard for the foreseeable future.

“We have wanted to bring all of our activities together into one facility and also have increasingly wanted to be able to bring some of our programs and research activities that are currently in Baltimore and elsewhere to Washington,” Daniels said. “We are hoping that with this new facility we’ll be able to offer more opportunities for undergraduates to do, for instance, internships and policy-related seminars and other activities in Washington. This becomes a wonderful portal for us to bring undergraduate and graduate students who are currently in Baltimore to Washington for relatively discrete periods of time.”

- Hopkins President Ronald J. Daniels

And my point exactly. They are not relocating their Baltimore campus.They purchased a building in DC to consolidate their DC locations: https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/01/25/johns-hopkins-newseum-purchase-washington-dc/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The median price of a house in the DC metro region is 475,00. If two members of a household are GS 13s (and chances are one would go higher at least eventually) then they might have a 190,000 income.

That fed famly might pay 2400 PITI for that median home.

The "DC metro area" extends as far as West Virginia, but realistically, the only areas that matter when we're talking about affordability are those that are within a reasonable commuting distance (less than an hour) from downtown DC.

I'm a single government employee looking to purchase a condo. It's very difficult to find a one-bedroom condo in DC that is $2400 all-in. A typical listing is $500k plus monthly condo fees of $500+. Let's not talk about two bedrooms or even one bedroom + den. I'm looking at monthly expenses of $3000+, which is a loooooong stretch on my $100k salary.

Using your $190,000 example and typical affordability guidelines, that dual income GS-13 couple should not spend more than 3-4x their income, or $760k for a home.

The run-down 2br/1ba row houses in NE/SE that sold for $300k ten years ago are now having bidding wars at $760k. Out of reach for a single government employee, and not quite large enough for a family. But there are plenty of flippers and high-earning, non-fed DINKs who continue to push those prices higher and higher.

I also think that people who purchased during 2008-2015 have NO idea how wacky things have become. When I tell my coworkers that I pay $2500 for rent on a one-bedroom apartment, they laugh at me for wasting money and say that their mortgage on their 3br SFH in Falls Church is less than that. Good luck finding anything even remotely close to that in the same neighborhoods in 2019.

I am the PP to whom you are referring. I disagree that you can't get a decent priced home within a one hour commute.

I live in Riggs Park. You can get a house tomorrow in my neighborhood for between 475,000 and 525,000. That's an attached home. If you'd like a single family home, go across the way to Chillum, Maryland.

https://www.redfin.com/DC/Washington/657-Emerson-St-NE-20017/home/10084409
https://www.redfin.com/neighborhood/16600/DC/Washington-DC/Riggs-Park

Want a one bedroom condo for a reasonable price?

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Hyattsville/1001-Chillum-Rd-20782/unit-107/home/11756848

Small one story single family home?

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Hyattsville/1001-Chillum-Rd-20782/unit-107/home/11756848

All have good public transportation access. Walking access to grocery stores and parks, and are in safe neighborhoods.

I'm sorry, but I just don't buy that there are no places with reasonable prices and good commuting distances. It's just not true.

If the only price you can think of living is some place within walking distance to a Whole Foods and where you'll mostly see white people as your neighbors, okay. But you do not have an inalienable right to live in the place you grew up in.

[Anonymous]

These feds leaving will have zero impact. Zero.

-Not a realtor or vested party. I lived in DC for 30 years. This place is booming. I think it’s sucks because there are so many other places that are nicer!

[Anonymous]

Without fail, every thread will respond to "there are few suitable properties available in my price range" with links to listings for properties that are some combination of:

a) run-down and advertised as "investor specials" that need $$$$$ worth of structural repairs, mold remediation, and other fundamental issues before even approaching the cosmetic concerns;

b) deep in soul-crushing suburban sprawl, surrounded by traffic sewers and a 15-minute drive to the nearest strip mall with a grocery store;

c) an okay property in an okay neighborhood that would immediately brand you as an unwanted gentrifier if you're not the same color as your neighbors;

d) literally meets none of the preferences the original poster specified. But they're just being sooooo picky and why wouldn't they want to spend half a million dollars on a property they hate just to say they own something, like any other red-blooded American?

I will never understand this cultural obsession with owning a property at all costs, no matter how ridiculous it is for your particular life circumstances, when continuing to rent would be the much, much better option for financial health / lifestyle / location / convenience.

[Anonymous]

Everyone on this thread knows that not all of USDA is moving, correct?