Hogan(R) wants to expand highways, selling out to for-profit cos. Does he know about induced demand?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The induced demand may take 20-30 years. If it was such a big thing, where adding lanes make traffic worse, then why don't we reduce lanes? Let's make the beltway only one lane each way!

Look at the ICC. It opened about 10 years ago, and it's not a parking lot like 270 at rush hour. It has a steady flow of traffic, has a toll charge, and is useful. Who knows, maybe in 15 more years, it'll get backed up too, but that means it will have served a useful purpose for 25 years.

All the people complaining about the proposed expansion seem to have no alternative solutions. The county population has exploded in upcounty like Germantown and Clarksburg. Those people need to get around, and people need to get to there. How else do we solve it? Making MARC trains run all day (the only proposal I've heard) is a good idea, but we need more than that.

Induced demand doesn't mean what you think it means. Tolled lanes will always have fewer cars than non-tolled lanes since not everyone can afford to use them. Induced demand means that more lanes makes the drive easier and since the drive is easier and faster, more people drive instead of taking the bus or train since they can get to work faster. It also gets more people to move further out where land is cheaper since the drive isn't as bad. As this all happens, the road clogs back up. We need more density around Metro stations but Montgomery County has this moratorium system where they won't build new housing because the schools are full (real solution is building new schools!).

Have you either 1) been to Metro stations or 2) looked at existing plans for high density housing? Guess what, I live near a Red Line station, and almost all of those people also have cars. They may use Metro sometimes, but they still have to go other places.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The induced demand may take 20-30 years. If it was such a big thing, where adding lanes make traffic worse, then why don't we reduce lanes? Let's make the beltway only one lane each way!

Look at the ICC. It opened about 10 years ago, and it's not a parking lot like 270 at rush hour. It has a steady flow of traffic, has a toll charge, and is useful. Who knows, maybe in 15 more years, it'll get backed up too, but that means it will have served a useful purpose for 25 years.

All the people complaining about the proposed expansion seem to have no alternative solutions. The county population has exploded in upcounty like Germantown and Clarksburg. Those people need to get around, and people need to get to there. How else do we solve it? Making MARC trains run all day (the only proposal I've heard) is a good idea, but we need more than that.

Induced demand doesn't mean what you think it means. Tolled lanes will always have fewer cars than non-tolled lanes since not everyone can afford to use them. Induced demand means that more lanes makes the drive easier and since the drive is easier and faster, more people drive instead of taking the bus or train since they can get to work faster. It also gets more people to move further out where land is cheaper since the drive isn't as bad. As this all happens, the road clogs back up. We need more density around Metro stations but Montgomery County has this moratorium system where they won't build new housing because the schools are full (real solution is building new schools!).

Have you either 1) been to Metro stations or 2) looked at existing plans for high density housing? Guess what, I live near a Red Line station, and almost all of those people also have cars. They may use Metro sometimes, but they still have to go other places.

And if they live in other areas they will always use their car for everything. Is that what you’re suggesting is best? If not, I don’t understand your point. So they drive to Red Lobster therefore we need no Metro station?

[Anonymous]

I'm all for limiting population growth in the county.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Induced demand? You were impressed by someone who said this to you, no? These counter arguments, along with nimbyism, are as stale as the policies you purport to oppose.

I’m sorry your education was so poor you are unable to process a fairly solid literature on induced demand.

The principles are in any Econ 101 class.

Clearly, you gained a Wikipedia level knowledge of the term, or skimmed the first google result you got. Some economists deem it a myth. A bunch of wealthy white nimbys can’t always get what they want.

No economists think it's a myth that, when there's demand for something, and the price goes down, consumption increases.

If you don't thinnk induced demand is a thing, then do you think this is a thing? Making it easier for more people to drive more, leads to more people will driving more.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

How about we do both? The county is growing population-wise, and people need somewhere to live. The "live near a Metro" only works in some parts of the county. Downcounty is just about all built up, which is why you see so many tear-downs in places like Bethesda -- there's no vacant land.

So any way you slice it, people will need to live in Clarksburg, Germantown, etc. We already have bus and train service there, but not everyone will live walking distance from that. People will need to drive. The county is not dense enough upcounty to do it any other way.

You: Transit is inadequate in the upcounty, so let's build more roads.
Me: Transit is inadequate in the upcounty, so let's improve transit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm all for limiting population growth in the county.

If you think we have problems dealing with population growth, you should see what the counties with declining populations have to deal with.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The induced demand may take 20-30 years. If it was such a big thing, where adding lanes make traffic worse, then why don't we reduce lanes? Let's make the beltway only one lane each way!

Look at the ICC. It opened about 10 years ago, and it's not a parking lot like 270 at rush hour. It has a steady flow of traffic, has a toll charge, and is useful. Who knows, maybe in 15 more years, it'll get backed up too, but that means it will have served a useful purpose for 25 years.

All the people complaining about the proposed expansion seem to have no alternative solutions. The county population has exploded in upcounty like Germantown and Clarksburg. Those people need to get around, and people need to get to there. How else do we solve it? Making MARC trains run all day (the only proposal I've heard) is a good idea, but we need more than that.

Induced demand doesn't mean what you think it means. Tolled lanes will always have fewer cars than non-tolled lanes since not everyone can afford to use them. Induced demand means that more lanes makes the drive easier and since the drive is easier and faster, more people drive instead of taking the bus or train since they can get to work faster. It also gets more people to move further out where land is cheaper since the drive isn't as bad. As this all happens, the road clogs back up. We need more density around Metro stations but Montgomery County has this moratorium system where they won't build new housing because the schools are full (real solution is building new schools!).

Have you either 1) been to Metro stations or 2) looked at existing plans for high density housing? Guess what, I live near a Red Line station, and almost all of those people also have cars. They may use Metro sometimes, but they still have to go other places.

And if they live in other areas they will always use their car for everything. Is that what you’re suggesting is best? If not, I don’t understand your point. So they drive to Red Lobster therefore we need no Metro station?

No it means that we still need roads.

[Anonymous]

The one small strip I can walk to is in danger of disappearing with the expansion. SAVE CARMENS!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I voted for Hogan. Now that he's in his 2nd term, he talks like mini-Trump. The plan will destroy 300 acres of parkland in Montgomery County. The noise that will be heard for many miles won't be pleasant. Talk about devaluing Montgomery County property. He relies on MoCo for the majority of his tax revenue, but he treats his constituents like crap.

Lets be real. Yes, it is unfortunate that parkland and a few homes may need to be used. But there is no other alternative. The idea that public transportation will solve our traffic issues on the Beltway is absurd. Similarly, the idea that an extra lane will dramatically increase the noise is equally absurd, as is devaluing MC property generally. The homes currently next to the Beltway are already "devalued". The homes that would then be next to the Beltway presumably will face a devaluation of some amount. But the idea that there will be a great devaluation across MC is absurd.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

How about we do both? The county is growing population-wise, and people need somewhere to live. The "live near a Metro" only works in some parts of the county. Downcounty is just about all built up, which is why you see so many tear-downs in places like Bethesda -- there's no vacant land.

So any way you slice it, people will need to live in Clarksburg, Germantown, etc. We already have bus and train service there, but not everyone will live walking distance from that. People will need to drive. The county is not dense enough upcounty to do it any other way.

You: Transit is inadequate in the upcounty, so let's build more roads.
Me: Transit is inadequate in the upcounty, so let's improve transit.

Why can't we do both?

I mostly agree with improving transit, but honestly there's room for both solutions!

[Anonymous]

No, Hogan doesn’t know about induced demand.

Want to bet he watches Fox and therefore thinks up is down and the sky is black?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I voted for Hogan. Now that he's in his 2nd term, he talks like mini-Trump. The plan will destroy 300 acres of parkland in Montgomery County. The noise that will be heard for many miles won't be pleasant. Talk about devaluing Montgomery County property. He relies on MoCo for the majority of his tax revenue, but he treats his constituents like crap.

Lets be real. Yes, it is unfortunate that parkland and a few homes may need to be used. But there is no other alternative. The idea that public transportation will solve our traffic issues on the Beltway is absurd. Similarly, the idea that an extra lane will dramatically increase the noise is equally absurd, as is devaluing MC property generally. The homes currently next to the Beltway are already "devalued". The homes that would then be next to the Beltway presumably will face a devaluation of some amount. But the idea that there will be a great devaluation across MC is absurd.

"A few homes". Let's be real. Destroying 300 acres of parkland sucks. Destroying the quality of life for thousands in Montgomery County sucks. Hogan's condescending attitude toward anybody in the way of his $11 billion gift to developer friends sucks. Sure, your Potomac property won't be devalued. Good for you.

[Anonymous]

Whatever you think about the highway widening, the interesting thing that has come out of us is bringing the YIMBYs and the NIMBYs together. It's amazing to see the Greater Greater Washington people agree with Marc Elrich on this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I voted for Hogan. Now that he's in his 2nd term, he talks like mini-Trump. The plan will destroy 300 acres of parkland in Montgomery County. The noise that will be heard for many miles won't be pleasant. Talk about devaluing Montgomery County property. He relies on MoCo for the majority of his tax revenue, but he treats his constituents like crap.

Lets be real. Yes, it is unfortunate that parkland and a few homes may need to be used. But there is no other alternative. The idea that public transportation will solve our traffic issues on the Beltway is absurd. Similarly, the idea that an extra lane will dramatically increase the noise is equally absurd, as is devaluing MC property generally. The homes currently next to the Beltway are already "devalued". The homes that would then be next to the Beltway presumably will face a devaluation of some amount. But the idea that there will be a great devaluation across MC is absurd.

"A few homes". Let's be real. Destroying 300 acres of parkland sucks. Destroying the quality of life for thousands in Montgomery County sucks. Hogan's condescending attitude toward anybody in the way of his $11 billion gift to developer friends sucks. Sure, your Potomac property won't be devalued. Good for you.

I wonder how many opponents of a widening Beltway supported the Purple Line with great vengeance. TP/SS hypocrites!!

[Anonymous]

Sorry, but until you can get the three local jurisdictions to create a dedicated funding source for public transit, induced demand for public transit is going to fail. You can funnel construction money into public transit, but if you don't have dedicated funding for maintenance, updates and care of the system, then you will have people going into the system when things are cared for, and going out of the system when they are not. When you have cars that break down, when the rails are not maintained properly, when you have electrical problems that cause repeated outages, when mobility restricted people cannot get to the tracks because elevators are out for months or years, when you don't have the resources to expand parking to accommodate all who want to use the system, all because there is no dedicated funding source to perform necessary maintenance (both short and long-term) then you will never have consistent demand for the public transportation system.

All of the successful public transit systems have a dedicated funding source, whether a jurisdiction-mandated minimum budget, or a tax that is dedicated to the annual line item or a source like gambling that can generate funds that will consistently go into the system. The three jurisdictions have no set budget for public transit and they vote on allocations annually and sometimes the budgets shrink. Over the last 30 years, this has happened routinely which is why we had so much deferred maintenance that we ended up with the electrical problems and inspection problems that caused outages and endangered rail riders. That's why you have bus routes that routinely get cancelled.

Start by working on lobbying local legislators in all three jurisdictions to pass a law mandating a minimum budget line item (like MD has for schools) and a set minimum annual increase to go directly to public transit. Until you have the guaranteed dedicated funding source, your induced demand will not change the pattern of influx and outflux of ridership to the system. The continued maintenance of the system has to be ensured before you try to funnel more riders into the system.