To the resident DCUM College Admissions Stats Guru...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Op again: what I was really driving at was the overall affect of all of the number of applications submitted including ED and RD. If X Student puts in 1 ED plus 9 RD applications, the Stats Guru seems to massage the data in a way that suggests that Application #1 (presumably the ED application) has Y% chance and each successive Application 2-10 has a diminishing Z% chance of acceptance. The percentages that the Stats Guru comes up with don't appear to follow the published acceptance rates but rather some type of calculation that X Student will get accepted at ANY college. That's what I am trying to figure out.

Stats guru is blowing smoke

The chance of getting into a particular college is not affected by the number of applicants someone submits

ED have higher admits because the pool of applicants is much stronger than regular admits

ED is a gamble if you think you have a shot of getting in it's worth it but realize that if you are deferred ED someone submitting regular decision has a higher chance of getting in than you do because they are a fresh applicant vs having been already deferred which is really a rejection already.

[Anonymous]

No real evidence that the ED pool is stronger. Certainly, it has the athletes, which matters tremendously.

[Anonymous]

This years results to date:

Amherst ED+RD: 1,144 out of 10,567 (10.8%)
Barnard ED + RD: ~1,053 out of 9,319 (~11.3%)
Boston College EA+RD: ~9,500 out of 35,556 (26.7%)
Bowdoin ED1 + ED2 + RD: ~831 out of 9,332 (~8.9%)
Brown ED+RD: 2,553 out of 38,674 (6.6%)
BU EA+ ED1+ED2+RD: ~11,260 out of 62,210 (~18.1%)
Colby ED1 + ED2 + RD: 1,295 out of 13,584 (9.5%)
Colgate ED1 + ED2 + RD: ~2422 out of 9904 (~24.5%)
Columbia ED + RD: ~2,171 out of 42,569 (~5.1%)
Cornell ED + RD: 5,183 out of >49,000 (~10.6%)
Dartmouth ED + RD: 1,876 out of 23,650 (7.9%)
Duke ED + RD: 3,064 out of 41,613 (7.4%)
Emory ED1 + ED2 + RD: 4512 out of 30,017 (15%)
Emory Oxford College- 3432 out of ~18,000 (19%)
Florida - main campus RD: 14,136 out of 41,407 (34.1%)
Georgia EA+RD: 13,050 out of 29,314 (44.5%)
Georgia Tech EA+RD: 6940 out of 36936 (18.8%)
Grinnell: ~1,696 out of 7,961 (~21.3%)
GWU ED1+ED2+RD: ~11,000 out of 27,071 (40.6%)
Hamilton ED1+ED2+RD: ~1,334 out of 8,338 (16%)
Harvard REA + RD: 1,950 out of 43,330 (4.5%)
Haverford ED1+ED2+RD: 801 out of 4,968 (16.1%)
Harvey Mudd ED1 + ED2 + RD: (13.4%)
Johns Hopkins ED+RD: 2,950 out of 32,231 (9.2%)
Macalester ED1+ ED2 + RD: ~2,048 out of 6,598 (~31%)
Middlebury ED1+ED2 +RD: 1,547 out of 9,750 (15.9%)
MIT EA + RD: 1410 out of 21,312 (6.6%)
NYU ED1+ED2+RD: 12,307 out of ~85,000 (~16% overall, 14.4% NY Campus)
Penn ED + RD: 3,345 out of 44,960 (7.4%)
Pitzer ED1 + ED2: 532 out of ~4,409 (~13.2%)
Princeton SCEA + RD: 1,895 out of 32,804 (5.8%)
Rice ED + RD: 2,364 out of 27,084 (8.7%)
Scripps ED1+ ED2 + RD: (29.8%)
Swarthmore ED1 + ED2 + RD: 995 out of 11,400+ (8.7%)
Tulane EA+ ED1+ED2+RD: ~5,400 out of 41,365 (~13%)
UChicago ED + EA + RD (5.9%)
USC: 7400 out of 67,000 (11%)
UVA RD+EA: 9,725 admits from 40,869 (23.8%)
Washington and Lee - 1,115 out of 6,178 (18.0%)
WashU ED1 + ED2 + RD: ~3,556 out of ~25,400 (~14%)
Wellesley ED1+ED2+RD: ~1,298 out of 6,488 (20%)
Williams College ED+RD 1205 out of 9,715 (12.4%)
Yale SCEA + RD: 2,178 out of 36,843 (5.9%)

* Vanderbilt RD:2,088 out of 32,967 (6.3%) (RD only, not including ED1 & ED2)

[Anonymous]

Source 10:00?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Source 10:00?

NP: It comes from crowdsourcing on College Confidential.

https://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-admissions/2114466-college-admissions-statistics-class-of-2023.html

[Anonymous]

Its all on the internet yet people only look at naviance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Betting everything on one school ED is great, *if* you get in. If you are deferred or denied you have squandered your chance to possibly apply EA (non-binding to several schools instead of one).

Regular decision odds are getting tougher at top 50 schools....

However, every school is different. Looking for a statistical theorem that can be applied equally to all schools is unwise.

Consult the "Common data set" for the schools you are interested in.

Can't you still apply EA to other police but you agree to withdraw those applications if you get in to the ED school?

Yes. You've only squandered your chance to apply ED or SCEA elsewhere.

I thought one can apply ED or SCEA AND public colleges and rolling admissions schools. So my DC applied ED to a private and applied EA to Michigan/GT/ and some other publics

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Betting everything on one school ED is great, *if* you get in. If you are deferred or denied you have squandered your chance to possibly apply EA (non-binding to several schools instead of one).

Regular decision odds are getting tougher at top 50 schools....

However, every school is different. Looking for a statistical theorem that can be applied equally to all schools is unwise.

Consult the "Common data set" for the schools you are interested in.

Can't you still apply EA to other police but you agree to withdraw those applications if you get in to the ED school?

Yes. You've only squandered your chance to apply ED or SCEA elsewhere.

I thought one can apply ED or SCEA AND public colleges and rolling admissions schools. So my DC applied ED to a private and applied EA to Michigan/GT/ and some other publics

It's not restricted to public (not sure you're suggesting that) but there are also private EA schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Op again: what I was really driving at was the overall affect of all of the number of applications submitted including ED and RD. If X Student puts in 1 ED plus 9 RD applications, the Stats Guru seems to massage the data in a way that suggests that Application #1 (presumably the ED application) has Y% chance and each successive Application 2-10 has a diminishing Z% chance of acceptance. The percentages that the Stats Guru comes up with don't appear to follow the published acceptance rates but rather some type of calculation that X Student will get accepted at ANY college. That's what I am trying to figure out.

Stats guru is blowing smoke

The chance of getting into a particular college is not affected by the number of applicants someone submits

ED have higher admits because the pool of applicants is much stronger than regular admits

ED is a gamble if you think you have a shot of getting in it's worth it but realize that if you are deferred ED someone submitting regular decision has a higher chance of getting in than you do because they are a fresh applicant vs having been already deferred which is really a rejection already.

You have no clue.

ED are not stronger admits than regular - EDs are mostly hooks like athletes, legacies, development kids. Example, Penn legacies are told to apply ED if they want a greater chance to be admitted.

A deferred during ED is not an outright rejection - some kids do get admitted and from our private, multiple kids were deferred during ED and accepted during RD at ivies. Waitlists are a different story.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Op again: what I was really driving at was the overall affect of all of the number of applications submitted including ED and RD. If X Student puts in 1 ED plus 9 RD applications, the Stats Guru seems to massage the data in a way that suggests that Application #1 (presumably the ED application) has Y% chance and each successive Application 2-10 has a diminishing Z% chance of acceptance. The percentages that the Stats Guru comes up with don't appear to follow the published acceptance rates but rather some type of calculation that X Student will get accepted at ANY college. That's what I am trying to figure out.

Stats guru is blowing smoke

The chance of getting into a particular college is not affected by the number of applicants someone submits

ED have higher admits because the pool of applicants is much stronger than regular admits

ED is a gamble if you think you have a shot of getting in it's worth it but realize that if you are deferred ED someone submitting regular decision has a higher chance of getting in than you do because they are a fresh applicant vs having been already deferred which is really a rejection already.

The PP above you is talking about conditional probabilities. A kid who is deferred has a lower probability of getting in than one who never applied early at all simply because the deferral already tells us the school is less interested. .

You have no clue.

ED are not stronger admits than regular - EDs are mostly hooks like athletes, legacies, development kids. Example, Penn legacies are told to apply ED if they want a greater chance to be admitted.

A deferred during ED is not an outright rejection - some kids do get admitted and from our private, multiple kids were deferred during ED and accepted during RD at ivies. Waitlists are a different story.

[Anonymous]

"A deferred during ED is not an outright rejection"

It is at some schools.

You have to do your homework. Both related to how the school deals with ED and related to how much DC really wants to attend compared to other schools.

At ED time our DC had a favorite and so they applied. By the middle of December, they were really hoping for a deferral.

They got it but of course being deferred made the school more desirable again so they sent in "extra information".

When the regular decisions came out, DC got in pretty much everywhere including the deferred ED.

That set up a big set of revisits and some merit aid negotiations. Eventually, the ED school had the best price but only by $10k or so.

Finally, on the last day of acceptances, DC chose against the ED school. The final reasoning was that they had thought about the ED school the most but it still was 50/50 with another school.