Reply to To the resident DCUM College Admissions Stats Guru...

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Op again:  what I was really driving at was the overall affect of all of the number of applications submitted including ED and RD.  If  X Student puts in 1 ED plus 9 RD applications, the Stats Guru seems to massage the data in a way that suggests that Application #1 (presumably the ED application) has Y% chance and each successive Application 2-10 has a diminishing Z% chance of acceptance.  The percentages that the Stats Guru comes up with don't appear to follow the published acceptance rates but rather some type of calculation that X Student will get accepted at ANY college.  That's what I am trying to figure out.  [/quote]

Stats guru is blowing smoke

The chance of getting into a particular college is not affected by the number of applicants someone submits

ED have higher admits because the pool of applicants is much stronger than regular admits

ED is a gamble if you think you have a shot of getting in it's worth it but realize that if you are deferred ED someone submitting regular decision has a higher chance of getting in than you do because they are a fresh applicant vs having been already deferred which is really a rejection already.[/quote]

The PP above you is talking about conditional probabilities.  A kid who is deferred has a lower probability of getting in than one who never applied early at all simply because the deferral already tells us the school is less interested. .

You have no clue.

ED are not stronger admits than regular - EDs are mostly hooks like athletes, legacies, development kids. Example, Penn legacies are told to apply ED if they want a greater chance to be admitted.

A deferred during ED is not an outright rejection - some kids do get admitted and from our private, multiple kids were deferred during ED and accepted during RD at ivies. Waitlists are a different story.[/quote][/quote]

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