22 million infected w/4000 deaths--am I missing something?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:or is this a low death rate? Not trying to cause some big debate because one person is too many, but I am trying to make myself feel better as I navigate what to do! It seems that is a .000018% chance of death-- but I may be calculating wrong. I've been out of school awhile!

I'm with you OP. It's too low of a risk for me. We won't be getting the vaccine.

Part of the problem people struggle with is making a decision on the basis of what we know now. The fatality numbers for H1N1 v. regular flu may be low now, but we are about 2 months away from the beginning of peak flu season. The fatality numbers are high when you consider that this is November. We also haven't begun to see much of the "regular flu." When it shows up, I fear the number of people contracting H1N1 will rise as it will be more easily contracted by folks who are already sick/have weakened immune systems. And when the number of people getting it rise, so will the number of fatalities. The problem is, when this flu really starts to get scary, if you make the decision to vaccinate then, you'll have waited too late.

This flu clearly is clearly on a different calendar than the regular, seasonal flu. It may be peaking now (or last week) for all we know.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:oh really? so cute.
so we have now a new number of how many people is or was sick..

and who actually did the testing???
nobody or almost nobody..

so this number is as good as anyone's guess..

we all know well that nobody is testing anymore and
we all know that it is winter season after all and
there is tons of people with common cold
and other strains of flu
so how come all of the sudden we have solid number?

that is soooooooooo funny

Your poetry is getting better, nanny. (but for once I agree with you.)

LOL I was going to peg her too!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:or is this a low death rate? Not trying to cause some big debate because one person is too many, but I am trying to make myself feel better as I navigate what to do! It seems that is a .000018% chance of death-- but I may be calculating wrong. I've been out of school awhile!

I'm with you OP. It's too low of a risk for me. We won't be getting the vaccine.

Part of the problem people struggle with is making a decision on the basis of what we know now. The fatality numbers for H1N1 v. regular flu may be low now, but we are about 2 months away from the beginning of peak flu season. The fatality numbers are high when you consider that this is November. We also haven't begun to see much of the "regular flu." When it shows up, I fear the number of people contracting H1N1 will rise as it will be more easily contracted by folks who are already sick/have weakened immune systems. And when the number of people getting it rise, so will the number of fatalities. The problem is, when this flu really starts to get scary, if you make the decision to vaccinate then, you'll have waited too late.

This flu clearly is clearly on a different calendar than the regular, seasonal flu. It may be peaking now (or last week) for all we know.

It is on a different calendar in that unlike with the regular flu, people continued to contract it over the summer. The incidence of flu will continue to rise, though, at least in colder parts of the country, because we'll basically be shutting ourselves in with the germs. I just paused to wonder -- ridiculously unscientifically -- if flu peaks in January and February in part because we are: a) unusually social in December (heightened opportunity for germ exchange) and early January with the holidays; and b) trapped indoors with the flu germs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
It is on a different calendar in that unlike with the regular flu, people continued to contract it over the summer. The incidence of flu will continue to rise, though, at least in colder parts of the country, because we'll basically be shutting ourselves in with the germs. I just paused to wonder -- ridiculously unscientifically -- if flu peaks in January and February in part because we are: a) unusually social in December (heightened opportunity for germ exchange) and early January with the holidays; and b) trapped indoors with the flu germs.

From http://www.sciencedaily.com/videos/2008/0103-does_winter_cause_the_flu.htm

We all know influenza is more common in winter. But researchers have not known why. Virologist doctor Peter Palese has been studying the effects of heat and cold on the flu virus. He found that at higher temperatures, the flu virus didn’t spread, but at colder temperature it did.

“The virus is probably more stable in cold temperature, so it hangs in the air much longer,” Dr. Palese told Ivanhoe.

Allowing it to spread easier. Here’s how -- when we cough or sneeze, microscopic droplets of water and the virus enter the air. Dry, cold conditions dry out the droplets, helping the virus linger in the air. The dry air also dries out nasal passages, which helps the virus stick.

“Cold dry air going over your nasal mucosa gets cracks in our airways and that allows virus to get in more easily,” Anice Lowen, researcher at Mt. Sinai School of Medicine told Ivanhoe.

And as we head into colder temps -- doctors say although we can’t control, we can get a flu shot to try and prevent it.