22 million infected w/4000 deaths--am I missing something?

[Anonymous]

or is this a low death rate? Not trying to cause some big debate because one person is too many, but I am trying to make myself feel better as I navigate what to do! It seems that is a .000018% chance of death-- but I may be calculating wrong. I've been out of school awhile!

[Anonymous]

Well, 4,000/22,000,000 = .00018 or a .02% Case Fatality Rate (estimated) for this H1N1 pandemic.

I think that's the same as for seasonal flu.

However if you look at who is dying, what is different is that for seasonal flu 95% of the fatalities are in the elderly.

For this flu, it appears that many of the fatalities are in much younger people.

Look at these most recent estimates of actual fatalities from the H1N1 flu for the past 6 months. (Seasonal flu pediatric fatalities I think average about 60 - 80 per year) The DCD is now ESTIMATING that over the past 6 months, since May 2009, some 540 kids have died of H1N1. That's a much bigger number than 80, in my book.

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm


Deaths

Age Mid-Level Range* Estimated Range *
0-17 years...................~540.....................~300 to ~800
18-64 years................. ~2,920 .....................~1,900 to ~4,600
65 years and older.........~440 .....................~300 to ~700
Deaths Total ..................~3,900.....................~2,500 to ~6,100

[Anonymous]

Yes. The probability of death is very small. I should tell you that I am in my third week out of work from the flu and the resulting complications. Yeah, I didn't die, but there were some days there when I happily would have. It was hellish.

So, please do take the flu seriously, whether you choose to vaccinate or not. Most flus "take down" the sick, the immune suppressed, and the weak. Not this one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes. The probability of death is very small. I should tell you that I am in my third week out of work from the flu and the resulting complications. Yeah, I didn't die, but there were some days there when I happily would have. It was hellish.

So, please do take the flu seriously, whether you choose to vaccinate or not. Most flus "take down" the sick, the immune suppressed, and the weak. Not this one.

It always cracks me up when people make the argument, "well, only [incredibly small percentage] die, so why bother?" SPeaking opnly for myself, I'd like to avoid a whole bunch of diseases/illnesses that likely won't kill me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well, 4,000/22,000,000 = .00018 or a .02% Case Fatality Rate (estimated) for this H1N1 pandemic.

I think that's the same as for seasonal flu.

I'm the poster who posted the above... as I think on it, I believe seasonal flu has a case fatality rate of about .1 or .2%, not .01-.02%

Which would make this flu (if you go by the estimates released from the CDC) maybe 10 times less severe than seasonal flu.

Only I don't really buy that. Just looking at the difference between kids who die of seasonal flu and the range now estimated for the past 6 months -- 300 to 800 -- that's a lot of kids. If they all died in a terrorist attack or somehting, people would be up in arms about it. Their faces would be on every newspaper, as a special center section. But it's just the flu.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes. The probability of death is very small. I should tell you that I am in my third week out of work from the flu and the resulting complications. Yeah, I didn't die, but there were some days there when I happily would have. It was hellish.

So, please do take the flu seriously, whether you choose to vaccinate or not. Most flus "take down" the sick, the immune suppressed, and the weak. Not this one.

It always cracks me up when people make the argument, "well, only [incredibly small percentage] die, so why bother?" SPeaking opnly for myself, I'd like to avoid a whole bunch of diseases/illnesses that likely won't kill me.

Then go find your bubble.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes. The probability of death is very small. I should tell you that I am in my third week out of work from the flu and the resulting complications. Yeah, I didn't die, but there were some days there when I happily would have. It was hellish.

So, please do take the flu seriously, whether you choose to vaccinate or not. Most flus "take down" the sick, the immune suppressed, and the weak. Not this one.

It always cracks me up when people make the argument, "well, only [incredibly small percentage] die, so why bother?" SPeaking opnly for myself, I'd like to avoid a whole bunch of diseases/illnesses that likely won't kill me.

Then go find your bubble.

You don't need a bubble. A vaccination will do. The only bubble is in your head.

[Anonymous]

The other issue in the numbers is ... well.. numbers.

Even though the proability of dying is about the same for seasonal flu as is for H1N1, far more people are getting infected with H1N1, and are being hospitalized for it if they have severe cases -- this IS putting a strain on ICUs across the country.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:or is this a low death rate? Not trying to cause some big debate because one person is too many, but I am trying to make myself feel better as I navigate what to do! It seems that is a .000018% chance of death-- but I may be calculating wrong. I've been out of school awhile!

I'm with you OP. It's too low of a risk for me. We won't be getting the vaccine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes. The probability of death is very small. I should tell you that I am in my third week out of work from the flu and the resulting complications. Yeah, I didn't die, but there were some days there when I happily would have. It was hellish.

So, please do take the flu seriously, whether you choose to vaccinate or not. Most flus "take down" the sick, the immune suppressed, and the weak. Not this one.

It always cracks me up when people make the argument, "well, only [incredibly small percentage] die, so why bother?" SPeaking opnly for myself, I'd like to avoid a whole bunch of diseases/illnesses that likely won't kill me.

Yeah, like the man cold. THAT is hell.

[Anonymous]

gee.. one week flu is hell? considering that it is mostly two first day of high fever?

try to stay in bed for 9 months of pregnancy and deliver a baby..

the guys are sissies

can't take flu with pride.

[Anonymous]

oh really? so cute.
so we have now a new number of how many people is or was sick..

and who actually did the testing???
nobody or almost nobody..

so this number is as good as anyone's guess..

we all know well that nobody is testing anymore and
we all know that it is winter season after all and
there is tons of people with common cold
and other strains of flu
so how come all of the sudden we have solid number?

that is soooooooooo funny

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:oh really? so cute.
so we have now a new number of how many people is or was sick..

and who actually did the testing???
nobody or almost nobody..

so this number is as good as anyone's guess..

we all know well that nobody is testing anymore and
we all know that it is winter season after all and
there is tons of people with common cold
and other strains of flu
so how come all of the sudden we have solid number?

that is soooooooooo funny

Your poetry is getting better, nanny. (but for once I agree with you.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:oh really? so cute.
so we have now a new number of how many people is or was sick..

and who actually did the testing???
nobody or almost nobody..

so this number is as good as anyone's guess..

we all know well that nobody is testing anymore and
we all know that it is winter season after all and
there is tons of people with common cold
and other strains of flu
so how come all of the sudden we have solid number?

that is soooooooooo funny

Little Miss Poor Grammar: it's because the CDC uses mathematical estimates. It's a computer program, like they do for the incidence of other diseases. You expect them to test and log every single person? If they did that, we'd all be shouting at them for diverting resources for an endeavor of little utility.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:or is this a low death rate? Not trying to cause some big debate because one person is too many, but I am trying to make myself feel better as I navigate what to do! It seems that is a .000018% chance of death-- but I may be calculating wrong. I've been out of school awhile!

I'm with you OP. It's too low of a risk for me. We won't be getting the vaccine.

Part of the problem people struggle with is making a decision on the basis of what we know now. The fatality numbers for H1N1 v. regular flu may be low now, but we are about 2 months away from the beginning of peak flu season. The fatality numbers are high when you consider that this is November. We also haven't begun to see much of the "regular flu." When it shows up, I fear the number of people contracting H1N1 will rise as it will be more easily contracted by folks who are already sick/have weakened immune systems. And when the number of people getting it rise, so will the number of fatalities. The problem is, when this flu really starts to get scary, if you make the decision to vaccinate then, you'll have waited too late.