Anonymous wrote:OP, a lot of the questions you raise are pretty personal. I doubt anyone can answer for you how important elementary is to you and how it factors in with all the other decisions about your life you have to weigh, including commute, house size, budget, etc. For me personally, we bought a spacious new build in South Arlington and our zoned school was a 4 when we bought and remains a 4 now. My oldest child is not yet 5 but she is already attending the Montessori preschool at Drew. We wanted a nice house, we wanted to feel that we could afford it instead of stretching, we wanted to be close in, we are ambivalent about how gentrified North Arlington is, and we don't think a Great Schools ranking of 4, particularly for elementary, is a big deal. So, that's how we made our decision to live where we live.
The things to understand about South Arlington schools (I assume you know that basically any North Arl school is regarded as "good" or better) is that there is going to be a big re-zoning in 2019 or so that will change things, and you should familiarize yourself with the concept of neighborhood schools and choice. Many Arl schools offer choice programs that you can lottery into. That's why we did Montessori preschool, so that we'd have that as a choice option instead of our home school if we want it. From there, I might suggest digging around on this forum for info (long thread here, if you can parse through the side convos on "diversity" -
http://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/565685.page) Lots of schools have fairly well known reputations and things that make them unique. E.g., Oakridge is supposed to be a great school, but it's huge (800 or so) and I know that puts many off. Hoffman-Boston has a STEM focus that some seem to think well of. Patrick Henry is a blue ribbon school and maybe has hit the magic number of just about one-third FARMS kids, as opposed to other schools that are struggling with higher percentages. Etc.
In terms of how Arlington is changing, I can tell you anecdotally that there are a lot of young families moving in. You can probably see that yourself based on the new builds on tiny lots popping up everywhere. There are also ongoing issues with affordable housing, specifically how a lot of it is located on the west end of Columbia Pike and elsewhere in South Arl, and there are proposals for more. Housing policy affects school policy, which isn't something I thought about before I had kids and bought a house. Both of those elements push and pull in different directions and will likely change things significantly. Whether that will be before my kids or yours are out of elementary, I don't know.