I am not a Republican but I can't blame those who vote for them feeling disillusioned. You cannot run on one platform that has to do with cutting spending, reducing deficits, eliminating waste, not granting amnesty to illegals, etc and then when one is elected to take a position that they have to compromise because they don't have a filibuster proof majority, face a presidential veto, etc. All of this may be true but then you don't raise expectations and then say one has to compromise. It is form of bait and switch. The latest pitch by the Republican establishment is that unless the presidency is won by a Republican then nothing can be done. Even if a Republican wins the White House, the next argument will be that without a filibuster proof majority in the Senate, legislation cannot be passed. Unfortunately, Republicans who run presenting themselves as conservatives will not level with the voters about these limitations and that is what causes the anger and disillusionment. |
Independents will still need to hold their nose vote for one or the other. Or just not vote at all ----> the GOP's strategy for future relevance |
I understand more than you think I do - notably I understand FIRSTHAND how Congressional politics works - I have run local campaigns. There is a macro and a micro. The GOP has the majority on the Hill, but mods seem to undestand that they have until 2018 or so to get this right. Most of the members of the FC ran on an obstructionist platform. That works while you are the underdog - the outsider crusading againt the big bad entrenched Majority in DC. That worked in 2014 when folks were fed up with the status quo and a lot of voters did not vote. It does not work so well when you are now the status quo and people are expecting you to forge your own record. It is lot easier to win when you can run trashing someone else's record. So if you do not think that the next GOP challenger in the local primary in the town of Podunk won't happily point out what the incumbent has or has not done, then I am not the one who does not understand. And trust me, it will be worse is a Dem wins the WH, because the mods seem like they will be pretty comfortable getting out the word as to why. |
A lot of these nonsensical and wishful-thinking death predictions for the Republican Party are rooted in a misinterpretation of the fact that the reason the Republican Party is having a tough time managing its various factions is precisely BECAUSE they have been so successful. Look (as Obama likes to say--"LOOK, folks"), the Republicans are the bigger tent party now. Democrats decided several years ago to do away with the white working class. They hate and resent them, actually. They resent their values, their religion, their respect for the individual over the state, and they resent many of their industries. Jim Webb's Democrat Party is long, long gone.
Obama won the 2012 election with 51% of the popular vote. That's no landslide. And the strategy he picked was to double down on progressives and say good riddance to the working class. He also wins on identity politics, which is a major factor for both progressives and, in his case, blacks. It's very difficult to say, though, whether blacks will be as motivated to turn out for a white Democrat. It's doubtful, actually. And what's worse, Hillary or Joe will not have the working class that Obama summarily dismissed. Republicans now control the House of Representatives, the Senate, the vast majority of state legislatures, both upper and lower chambers, and the vast majority of governorships. Yes, it's difficult to keep a working coalition together between the big business conservatives, the suburban middle class that doesn't like heavy taxes, the religious right, the libertarians, and so forth. But the important point is they've got them, and that's more than the Democrats can claim. Democrats are just hoping and praying that there are enough Lena Dunham's who spend their lives obsessing over free abortion and microagressions. But as we start to see more and more backlash against the excessive PC movement (check out all the press lambasting the trigger warning culture), that faction is going to weaken as some of them come to their senses. Then what will the Democrats have, other than a few angry college professors who want Bernie Sanders' Denmark? |
I stopped taking this seriously at "the Republicans are the bigger tent party now," especially given that your rationale is that white working class people are voting republican. |
You're forgetting one thing: WOMEN. They were 54% of the voting electorate in 2012 and will break in large numbers for Hillary. Women turn out at a much higher rate than men. White working class women will especially break for Hillary, as the vast majority of whom are single mothers and can barely put bread on the table. The raw number of white voters has been declining in total numbers for the last two Presidential elections. White working class/blue collar men don't even matter anymore, since their turn-out numbers are atrocious. The GOP's strategy is not Big Tent. The GOP wins when people don't vote. Their goal it to make voting (1.) difficult and (2.) unattractive. They make voting difficult through voter ID laws, limiting poll hours, restricting who can establish residence, make it onerous to establish residence, and difficult to attain a valid ID. They make voting unattractive by through legislative gridlock. The voters, especially Independents, become apathetic and only the extremists turn out to vote. Self identified Independents are NOT reliable voters, their turn out rates are lower than those registered as Dems or Repubs. |
It must be hard when your party only attracts old white people. |
You are still missing the point of OP's question because you are trying to frame your answer from a Dem vs. GOP perspective. This issue is that this "working coalition" is not really working - and that is a GOP issue. Dems may benefit from it but they have nothing to do with it. So my question is this....aside from their disdain for POTUS, what bridge issues are there amongst the various factions of this working coalition? |
Why? They didn't break for Obama, and Hillary isn't anything like them, not to mention that Hillary has a significantly worse favorability rating than Obama. |
Right, law enforcement is staying in the Democratic fold. You're sorely mistaken that because an industry is organized that they're in Comrade deBlasio's camp, guess what, they're not. |
The important part isn't that they've "got them," but what are they going to do with that power? How will they legislate? With the exception of the state legislatures (which have done all the heavy lifting of late), Republicans have done NOTHING with their power but stomp their feet. This is because the party has different factions and they've lost a consensus. They won't keep their power if they cannot legislate. |
I don't know. They kept Obama's signature achievement, ACA, limited to a weakened version of Romneycare. The single payer option was "off the table" immediately, remember? They prevented Cap and Trade, they successfully outmaneuvered Obama to cut the growth rate of runaway spending with the whole Sequestration plan (and brilliantly called his bluff). They kept the Bush tax cuts in place for the vast, vast majority of the population and severely limited the amount they would rise on the highest-income taxpayers (and they've done this so successfully that these are no longer even referred to as the Bush tax cuts, they're just cemented as the "tax rates.) They prevented Obama from passing a huge tax increase on the middle class by eliminating the benefits of 529 college savings plans. All in all, I'm happy. |
What on earth are you talking about? It's not a question of whether cops vote democratic (seriously, how long has it been since THAT was a viable plan?), it's that a plan based on attracting disaffected white voters ignores that the percentage of white voters has shrunk, and will continue to shrink in the years to come. (And never mind there are legions of white people, like me, who won't vote for the GOP because of their hateful social positions.) It's like investing in buggy whips the year after the Model T came out. The GOP has ignored the changing demographics of this country, and doubled down on cranky white people, and you think that is a WINNING strategy? Even the GOP chairman thinks it's bad politics, though he's powerless to stop it. But, carry on - if you're intent on jumping off the cliff, far be it for me to stop you! |
You may be happy - but everything you listed was reactive to POTUS and that is the point PPs are trying to make. Now that the GOP has the majority, it is their show. Again, the question that no one seems to be able to answer is how can the philosophical gaps be bridged once (1) the common enemy has gone and (2) people are looking at them to be proactivce about their own agenda (which still is a toss up). That is the "future" that people are asking about, |
The party has a war to win. The war is to jettison the social agenda and return to a party of limited government. The convenient overlap between social conservatism, limited government, and interventionist foreign policy has ended. Of the three, the social conservatism is the one which loses them the most long term voters. |