Let's talk TSP strategy

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The OP mentioned a stock:bond ratio. Bonds were safe during the recession compared to stocks, but they're no longer the best investment now since the market is going up, up, up. You don't have to put money in a bond fund. I'm more aggressive even though I'm 58. All my money is in tsp stock funds. I remember a professor telling us bonds and stocks are inverse. One goes up, and the other goes down. That's still true all these years later.

The G fund can lose money. If the rate of inflation is higher than the rate of return in the G fund, then you're losing money. Let's say the G fund made a 3 percent gain in one year, but inflation was 5% for the same year, you lost 2% in that year.

And of course, the market will keep going up, up, up without a pause or a drp, forever.

Have you forgotten what happened in 2008 already? People who were near retirement and 100% in stocks got wrecked.

Only if they sold or tried to time the market. If they left their money in they were fine, as things recovered and soared. If they were that close to retirement that they needed the money in the short term, they shouldn't have been 100% stock, but even then they did t need all of it at once.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The OP mentioned a stock:bond ratio. Bonds were safe during the recession compared to stocks, but they're no longer the best investment now since the market is going up, up, up. You don't have to put money in a bond fund. I'm more aggressive even though I'm 58. All my money is in tsp stock funds. I remember a professor telling us bonds and stocks are inverse. One goes up, and the other goes down. That's still true all these years later.

The G fund can lose money. If the rate of inflation is higher than the rate of return in the G fund, then you're losing money. Let's say the G fund made a 3 percent gain in one year, but inflation was 5% for the same year, you lost 2% in that year.

And of course, the market will keep going up, up, up without a pause or a drp, forever.

Have you forgotten what happened in 2008 already? People who were near retirement and 100% in stocks got wrecked.

Wow. 58 and still 100% stock? That's ballsy. And to the second reply, yes, those folks did get wrecked IF they sold. But If they held tight, they lost nothing. Selling stock holdings at a loss is the only way to lock in a loss.

I don't see any problem with being 80, 90, or even 100% stock ten years or more out from retirement. But 5-10 years out and you've gotta start taking some cash off the table.

58 y/o person...are you that wary of the G-Fund or is retirement still a long way off?

[Anonymous]

So curious--did you get out in front of this correction?

[Anonymous]

OP, I did well timing the last recession's market collapse but this time I'm just riding it out. It will probably fall at least another 10-15% before it's done.

I'm 100% stocks and with more than a quarter century till retirement and no "plans" to die for at least 30-40 years after retiring, my investment timeframe is 55-65 years. With that many years ahead, times like this where the market is in freefall would be the perfect time to increase contributions if I could afford it (which I can't).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So curious--did you get out in front of this correction?

OP here, and nope. Everything's in C/S/I, so gotta ride this one out. But I do plan on buying 100% of the biggest loser percentage-wise (C/S or I) based on my last inter-fund transfer. Gotta remember to run the calc by noon on the day before the contribution goes in.

At least we're all buying on the cheap for sure with the next couple of paychecks.

[Anonymous]

OP, back again. What a fun August that was!

Ouch:


Top 12-mo performer over every other option available starting 09/01/2014? The G-Fund...double ouch.


With this current allocation, I'm strapped in for a bit:

[Anonymous]

This is why the L funds hold some G.

[Anonymous]

The Ls are great for set it and forget, but are so darn conservative. Plus I feel like the F-fund always drags down returns. G never loses.

[Anonymous]

I think your distribution is fine as you have 28 years to go. Just max out your contributions.

[Anonymous]

I trusted the good LORD on when to buy and when to sell and resulted in a 12 month PIP of 9.14% this year (end of November). C fund to G fund and back each month. Don't be afraid. Wealth obtained by fraud will dwindle, but whoever earns it through labor will multiply it. Go for it your still young.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I trusted the good LORD on when to buy and when to sell and resulted in a 12 month PIP of 9.14% this year (end of November). C fund to G fund and back each month. Don't be afraid. Wealth obtained by fraud will dwindle, but whoever earns it through labor will multiply it. Go for it your still young.

OP, back again. 9.14% is great, PP! Maybe I should start going back to church!

I'm at a solid 5% for the last 12 months, but hoping for around 7% for 2015 once last year's horrible December is wiped out of the calculation (and as long as the market holds/grows thru the holidays). I haven't made a single interfund transfer since mid-June and have just been trying to buy the biggest loser of C/S/I with paycheck contributions. I've been told that patience is a virtue, but it sure does seem to take a long time.



As long as I'm beating all of the L Funds, I'm happy.

[Anonymous]

PIP for 2015 ended up being 11.85%. Thank you Jesus! I went all back into the G fund since December 4, 2015. Waiting for the right time to buy back into the C fund. I make these moves out of pure faith that the good LORD is guiding me. Joshua 1:9.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:PIP for 2015 ended up being 11.85%. Thank you Jesus! I went all back into the G fund since December 4, 2015. Waiting for the right time to buy back into the C fund. I make these moves out of pure faith that the good LORD is guiding me. Joshua 1:9.

I think you have some more reading to do:

Matthew 19:21 If you want to be perfect, go, sell your possessions and give to the poor, and you will have treasure in heaven. Then come, follow me.

Proverbs 23:4-5 Do not wear yourself out to get rich; do not trust your own cleverness. Cast but a glance at riches, and they are gone, for they will surely sprout wings and fly off to the sky like an eagle.

Proverbs 11:4 Wealth is worthless in the day of wrath, but righteousness delivers from death.

1 Timothy 6:17-19 Instruct those who are rich in this present world not to be conceited or to fix their hope on the uncertainty of riches, but on God, who richly supplies us with all things to enjoy. Instruct them to do good, to be rich in good works, to be generous and ready to share, storing up for themselves the treasure of a good foundation for the future, so that they may take hold of that which is life indeed.

Matthew 5:42 Give to him who asks you, and from him who wants to borrow from you do not turn away.

Matthew 6:24 No one can serve two masters, for either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve God and money.

Proverbs 22:1 A good name is to be chosen rather than great riches, loving favor rather than silver and gold.

Matthew 6:26 Look at the birds of the air; they do not sow or reap or store away in barns, and yet your heavenly Father feeds them. Are you not much more valuable than they?

[Anonymous]

I could not spend my life paying this much attention to flipping my investments this way and that. You'll never get that time back. On the other hand, if you enjoy it.....

I'm much more of the set-and-forget mindset. To each his own.

[Anonymous]

It takes very little time once a month buy and then sell as thats all the TSP allows you to do in a given month. Thanks for sharing those beautiful and precious scriptures. Would like to share these scriptures too. Galatians 3:11, Proverbs 3:6, Jeremiah 29:11, 2 Corinthian 9:8, John 10:10-11.