When will Private Schools' bubble burst ?

[Anonymous]

The college costs have stabilized. Maybe the private school will stabilize soon as well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The college costs have stabilized. Maybe the private school will stabilize soon as well.

Please let me know where.at $60k/year and going up not Sure where the stabilization is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know the answer, but I hope you're right. We're a $350k HHI family with 2 kids in private and feel like it's a struggle to pay tuition every year. If it goes much higher, we won't be able to do it anymore.

We make about $300K and won't send our 2 kids to private for this reason, although it would be much better for them if we could (for different reasons for each one). You've validated my feeling that we can't really afford it. Thanks!

We make 150000 a year and send dc to private school because it benefits him. It's not easy but we do it. Tuition is 30k for first grade. It's a matter of priority.

Let's see how long you keep that up. Don't tell me it's a matter of priority until you've lived in my house and paid my bills. Our lifestyle is not extravagant. Our biggest splurge is an au pair, which makes us able to stay at work as late as we need to. We can't be at school by 6:00 to pick up our kids from aftercare.

[Anonymous]

I think a college tuition bubble will burst before any private K-12 tuition will burst.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know the answer, but I hope you're right. We're a $350k HHI family with 2 kids in private and feel like it's a struggle to pay tuition every year. If it goes much higher, we won't be able to do it anymore.

We make about $300K and won't send our 2 kids to private for this reason, although it would be much better for them if we could (for different reasons for each one). You've validated my feeling that we can't really afford it. Thanks!

We make 150000 a year and send dc to private school because it benefits him. It's not easy but we do it. Tuition is 30k for first grade. It's a matter of priority.

Yes, but you only have one kid. Secondly, with HHI of 150k you are not the "ideal family" they need to retain. If you have another kid, you'll be in the FA camp, or leaving as well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As most people on this forum are keenly aware, Private school tuition has climbed from 24K in 2006 to 35K-40K a year in 2013 ( nearly doubled in the last 6 years) . Many upper middle class families with incomes in 250K to 350K range feel priced out, particularly if they have 3 kids.

My question: are these schools using this money wisely ? Have the schools started to hit a tuition figure of diminishing return ( its so high they have to give more and more FA, to get the families they need/want) Why not just charge less, and give less FA ?

Is FA REALLY where this money is going in these "non-profits".

Something smells. I sense a bubble about to burst and last time I felt that way was 2005, 2006.

Families earning between $250k-$350k who also have 3 kids? Such a highly specific and narrow group that you are focused on.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As most people on this forum are keenly aware, Private school tuition has climbed from 24K in 2006 to 35K-40K a year in 2013 ( nearly doubled in the last 6 years) . Many upper middle class families with incomes in 250K to 350K range feel priced out, particularly if they have 3 kids.

My question: are these schools using this money wisely ? Have the schools started to hit a tuition figure of diminishing return ( its so high they have to give more and more FA, to get the families they need/want) Why not just charge less, and give less FA ?

Is FA REALLY where this money is going in these "non-profits".

Something smells. I sense a bubble about to burst and last time I felt that way was 2005, 2006.

Families earning between $250k-$350k who also have 3 kids? Such a highly specific and narrow group that you are focused on.

No, not a " highly specific group" at all. Those income figures and family size are pretty much the bracket for most of the families in private schools and are the bulk of what is considered " upper middle class" in this town or did you not hear the whining when the tax hike on HHI of 250K or higher was being debated. Seems that it was kicked up to only hike taxes on HHI 450K or higher. Did you have no take away from that debate ?

[Anonymous]

Another $150 HHI with a kid in private because it is a priority. "Don't tell me it's a matter of priority until you've lived in my house and paid my bills"? Why no, I won't be able to live in your house and pay your bills because I can't afford it. And if you wanted to send your kids to private enough you'd sell your big house and buy one next to mine in the working class neighborhood outside the beltway in PG county and live your priorities. The question is not can you afford private, but do you want to? If your publics are good, you probably don't. Simple enough.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Another $150 HHI with a kid in private because it is a priority. "Don't tell me it's a matter of priority until you've lived in my house and paid my bills"? Why no, I won't be able to live in your house and pay your bills because I can't afford it. And if you wanted to send your kids to private enough you'd sell your big house and buy one next to mine in the working class neighborhood outside the beltway in PG county and live your priorities. The question is not can you afford private, but do you want to? If your publics are good, you probably don't. Simple enough.

OP here, not challenging you at all. I similarly have one child and make same calculations. But, we are not the bulk of the families filling these schools and, as a parent with a child in Private, you well know this is true. Most families have more than one child. Statistically, I believe the average is 2.85. My point is , by charging 40K per child, are Private's not beginning to shoot themselves in the foot ? They are beginning to lose families in the 250K to 350K range, and that group is bulk of their parent population.

[Anonymous]

The best privates will always attract enough students. It's the second and third tier ones that will hurt. Private schools don't just want super rich and super poor. They want to be able to have some in-between. It will continue to be tougher and tougher for folks making under $200k to have one kid in private; $300k or more for 2 kids in private, etc. Any other place those salaries would stretch much further. Our DD is already out of private and with $200k combined income -- we felt we needed to live really frugally to pay the tuition w/o FA

[Anonymous]

Top 3-5, never. Salaries have gone up, up, up in the DC area last 10 years. (NY Times magazine, March 2013). Other schools may be in trouble as those rich folks tend to live in the closer in neighborhoods.

[Anonymous]

In our private there are many only children, children of teachers, and those subsidized by the employers. Also just plain wealthy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As most people on this forum are keenly aware, Private school tuition has climbed from 24K in 2006 to 35K-40K a year in 2013 ( nearly doubled in the last 6 years) . Many upper middle class families with incomes in 250K to 350K range feel priced out, particularly if they have 3 kids.

My question: are these schools using this money wisely ? Have the schools started to hit a tuition figure of diminishing return ( its so high they have to give more and more FA, to get the families they need/want) Why not just charge less, and give less FA ?

Is FA REALLY where this money is going in these "non-profits".

Something smells. I sense a bubble about to burst and last time I felt that way was 2005, 2006.

Families earning between $250k-$350k who also have 3 kids? Such a highly specific and narrow group that you are focused on.

No, not a " highly specific group" at all. Those income figures and family size are pretty much the bracket for most of the families in private schools and are the bulk of what is considered " upper middle class" in this town or did you not hear the whining when the tax hike on HHI of 250K or higher was being debated. Seems that it was kicked up to only hike taxes on HHI 450K or higher. Did you have no take away from that debate ?

It's not the income fact - but the THREE KIDS fact that raised my eyebrow. I know many people in the $250K HHI (and less) and many people in the $400K HHI (and over). Some have three kids, but that is not the most common. And the difference between having 2 kids and having 3 kids is substantial.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This same exact thread has been started every year for the past at least 5 years with someone always claiming the bubble was just about to burst.

You can abandon hope that will happen.

You're probably right. What does it matter if Sidwell, NCS and StA are filled with the clueless about life offspring of people that have profited heavily from feeding off the carcasses of the very poor: Beltway Bandits, IT execs (to provide tech support to chicanery) owners of huge car dealerships and or drugstore/liquor store chains/ crappy rental real estate slum lords, successful ambulance chasers and the 3rd or 4th generation Rockefellers, Kennedys, Tunneys, fill-in-the-blank-senator/judge's grandchildren thrown in to make it look respectable and you've got an endless loop of applicants and graduates. Every institution in America is being overrun with vulgarians with huge wads of blood money stuffed under the seat cushions of their Aeron chairs. Abandon hope, indeed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Top 3-5, never. Salaries have gone up, up, up in the DC area last 10 years. (NY Times magazine, March 2013). Other schools may be in trouble as those rich folks tend to live in the closer in neighborhoods.

This. There will always be enough high-income families to pay $35K tuition at a top private, barring global financial meltdown. It's the second and third tier schools that may struggle as more and more families, even very high income families that weren't accepted at the top privates, begin to question whether the lower-tier private is $35K *better* than the neighborhood public. Some will still see an advantage to private (especially cheaper parochial) but some lower tier privates may struggle.

To me, the families who have already been priced out are the ones on the other thread who are struggling to pay tuition and, I strongly suspect, not saving for college or retirement. These families don't realize they have already been priced out.

The college bubble is fascinating I think. We're looking at paying $60K next year. But will our DCs be the last to spend 4 years in a dorm before MOOCS (online learning) resolves some of the problems re testing and grading, and college becomes cheaper.