Total US Ecomonic Collapse

[Anonymous]

Please send us your address so that we can be sure hot to set up our hobo camp on your property.

BTW you should really plant a crop now. If it happens the way OP suggests, your land will be as useless as a car without gas if you don't have seed in the ground.

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:Put your money where your mouth is OP. I will buy your house for 50% of market today. I will pay in gold and let you live rent free for 60 days. At this point you should be able to buy it back from my broke, desperate self at a pittance.

Damn, too bad the OP didn't take you up on this offer.

Speaking of gold, remember when we were all supposed to buy gold?

http://www.roubini.com/strategy/flash/167509.php

"Gold again proves it is not the safe haven many had hoped for, breaking the 200-day moving average, the first time since 2009 and signaling that prices may drop to US$1400/ounce."

[Anonymous]

Yes I would have turned a nice profit and he would have taken not one but two baths. Never bet your future on anything other than the fundamental value of an asset. Anything else is a guess. And even if you guess right you won't know how long you will be right.

[Anonymous]

12:07, so heart you. OP, wow. Such posts and protests make me think that you will be the one looting my house.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think a collapse is necessarily eminent. But I do think that those of you who live and work in the city (any large U.S. city) are going to have the most difficulties. We are back and forth to D.C. every few years. But we own a home in a relatively rural area. We live on the water. We have plenty of land. And my family knows how to hunt, fish, and farm. We aren't surrounded by thousands of people. Fewer people = Less risk of crime. And our community wouldn't hesitate to help those in need. There would be no reason for people to start stealing....we would share with our neighbors. We also have two large german Shepherd dogs. And yes, we do own guns.

I'm honestly not worried. I think things will get better in our country. But I do think many people in America have lost the ability to take care of themselves and their families. Just look at what happened after Katrina. People waited assuming "the government" would help. When the government didn't show up, people got desperate. We were also affected by Katrina. No one looted. No one started breaking into homes. We just quietly went about the business of rebuilding and helping our neighbors. But again, we were far away from a large city. And we were prepared to take care of ourselves without the help of the government.

Nah. DC crime is falling precipitously and is pretty stable. That's because the poor who live *in* DC are the poorest of the poor, and the benefits that go to them stay relatively the same, because the non-poor population of DC is growing, and their jobs are pretty much guaranteed by the government (GOP propaganda to the contrary--defense spending ain't going anywhere. We're basically the last people in the country, if not the planet, who will continue to draw a paycheck.)

The biggest underreported story of the last decade is the explosion of suburban poverty. That's only going to accelerate in the coming decades. And the problem is multiplied because the suburbs have very little in the way of a framework to alleviate this poverty. So the effects are much greater than in the case of urban poverty.

The danger is in people who are working-class, and who are falling into poverty in areas where the social safety net is frayed or nonexistent. That is exurban and rural areas, the South, Midwest, etc, etc...

Cities like DC and NYC are going to be increasingly enclaves of wealth in stark contrast to the suburbs, which will increasingly become bifurcated into ghettos and gated communities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think a collapse is necessarily eminent. But I do think that those of you who live and work in the city (any large U.S. city) are going to have the most difficulties. We are back and forth to D.C. every few years. But we own a home in a relatively rural area. We live on the water. We have plenty of land. And my family knows how to hunt, fish, and farm. We aren't surrounded by thousands of people. Fewer people = Less risk of crime. And our community wouldn't hesitate to help those in need. There would be no reason for people to start stealing....we would share with our neighbors. We also have two large german Shepherd dogs. And yes, we do own guns.

I'm honestly not worried. I think things will get better in our country. But I do think many people in America have lost the ability to take care of themselves and their families. Just look at what happened after Katrina. People waited assuming "the government" would help. When the government didn't show up, people got desperate. We were also affected by Katrina. No one looted. No one started breaking into homes. We just quietly went about the business of rebuilding and helping our neighbors. But again, we were far away from a large city. And we were prepared to take care of ourselves without the help of the government.

Oh yeah, you and Hank Jr think you're going to do better than city folk - till you run out of bullets. What is key to survival is social organization and community support - sounds like you may have it, then good for you. But lots of parts of the country have it, too, and they ain't out in the country.

[Anonymous]

One last thing: like any other "short" position, shorting "civilization" is subject to Kenyes' observation that "in the long run we are all dead."

It's nothing special to predict the collapse of civilization; the trick is to get the timing right. Given that marginal characters have been predicting that "The End Is Near" since at least "The Beginning" the danger is that you'll be sitting out in some Unibomber-style cabin on a hoard of bullets and legumes waiting for an end that doesn't arrive until 2183.

And that's fine if you get off on that sort of fantasy; for my part, I kind of like living in civilization.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Nah. DC crime is falling precipitously and is pretty stable. That's because the poor who live *in* DC are the poorest of the poor, and the benefits that go to them stay relatively the same, because the non-poor population of DC is growing, and their jobs are pretty much guaranteed by the government (GOP propaganda to the contrary--defense spending ain't going anywhere. We're basically the last people in the country, if not the planet, who will continue to draw a paycheck.)

The biggest underreported story of the last decade is the explosion of suburban poverty. That's only going to accelerate in the coming decades. And the problem is multiplied because the suburbs have very little in the way of a framework to alleviate this poverty. So the effects are much greater than in the case of urban poverty.

The danger is in people who are working-class, and who are falling into poverty in areas where the social safety net is frayed or nonexistent. That is exurban and rural areas, the South, Midwest, etc, etc...

Cities like DC and NYC are going to be increasingly enclaves of wealth in stark contrast to the suburbs, which will increasingly become bifurcated into ghettos and gated communities.

Yep, pp is right. See Paris. See where the riots there took place - in the suburbs where the working class and poor live.
And pp is also right about the job market here. All you folks who hate the government and government workers. Keep right on with that and there will be more and more work outsourced to the private sector where we are paid quite well to do it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think a collapse is necessarily eminent. But I do think that those of you who live and work in the city (any large U.S. city) are going to have the most difficulties. We are back and forth to D.C. every few years. But we own a home in a relatively rural area. We live on the water. We have plenty of land. And my family knows how to hunt, fish, and farm. We aren't surrounded by thousands of people. Fewer people = Less risk of crime. And our community wouldn't hesitate to help those in need. There would be no reason for people to start stealing....we would share with our neighbors. We also have two large german Shepherd dogs. And yes, we do own guns.

I'm honestly not worried. I think things will get better in our country. But I do think many people in America have lost the ability to take care of themselves and their families. Just look at what happened after Katrina. People waited assuming "the government" would help. When the government didn't show up, people got desperate. We were also affected by Katrina. No one looted. No one started breaking into homes. We just quietly went about the business of rebuilding and helping our neighbors. But again, we were far away from a large city. And we were prepared to take care of ourselves without the help of the government.

Oh yeah, you and Hank Jr think you're going to do better than city folk - till you run out of bullets. What is key to survival is social organization and community support - sounds like you may have it, then good for you. But lots of parts of the country have it, too, and they ain't out in the country.

I tend to agree with you. What's more likely to happen is--rather than a violent upheaval--a slow contraction of civilization from the far-flung exurbs back into the core. As society gradually gets less wealthy, the transportation network at the margins will slowly begin to unravel. Rail will become cheaper than truck, so our resources will go towards upgrading the railways. Things will get more expensive in rural areas. It'll probably become more expensive (and longer) to get from Harrisburg, VA to DC than it will from DC to NYC. Living in someplace like Leesburg will increasingly be like living in Alaska.

Of course, this will increase the utility of living nearer the urban core, so the poor and folks with few prospects will likely be pushed out further to the exurbs in the same way they're now being displaced to the close-in suburbs of PG County now. Eventually, things will look increasingly like a medieval city where the privileged few have places inside the "walls of the city", the poor are left to fend for themselves outside of it, and the rural folk eke out a living by bringing whatever they can coax out of the ground to the farmer's market outside the city walls.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think a collapse is necessarily eminent. But I do think that those of you who live and work in the city (any large U.S. city) are going to have the most difficulties. We are back and forth to D.C. every few years. But we own a home in a relatively rural area. We live on the water. We have plenty of land. And my family knows how to hunt, fish, and farm. We aren't surrounded by thousands of people. Fewer people = Less risk of crime. And our community wouldn't hesitate to help those in need. There would be no reason for people to start stealing....we would share with our neighbors. We also have two large german Shepherd dogs. And yes, we do own guns.

I'm honestly not worried. I think things will get better in our country. But I do think many people in America have lost the ability to take care of themselves and their families. Just look at what happened after Katrina. People waited assuming "the government" would help. When the government didn't show up, people got desperate. We were also affected by Katrina. No one looted. No one started breaking into homes. We just quietly went about the business of rebuilding and helping our neighbors. But again, we were far away from a large city. And we were prepared to take care of ourselves without the help of the government.

Oh yeah, you and Hank Jr think you're going to do better than city folk - till you run out of bullets. What is key to survival is social organization and community support - sounds like you may have it, then good for you. But lots of parts of the country have it, too, and they ain't out in the country.

I tend to agree with you. What's more likely to happen is--rather than a violent upheaval--a slow contraction of civilization from the far-flung exurbs back into the core. As society gradually gets less wealthy, the transportation network at the margins will slowly begin to unravel. Rail will become cheaper than truck, so our resources will go towards upgrading the railways. Things will get more expensive in rural areas. It'll probably become more expensive (and longer) to get from Harrisburg, VA to DC than it will from DC to NYC. Living in someplace like Leesburg will increasingly be like living in Alaska.

Of course, this will increase the utility of living nearer the urban core, so the poor and folks with few prospects will likely be pushed out further to the exurbs in the same way they're now being displaced to the close-in suburbs of PG County now. Eventually, things will look increasingly like a medieval city where the privileged few have places inside the "walls of the city", the poor are left to fend for themselves outside of it, and the rural folk eke out a living by bringing whatever they can coax out of the ground to the farmer's market outside the city walls.

OMG this is such city dweller wishful thinking. It's kind of sad that you think economic collapse is going to benefit your political agenda. But if you recall where the poor went during the depression, it was not into the cities.

[Anonymous]

OP here. Wow...wasn't expecting this to be dug out of the grave. This post was not one of my finer moments and I regret to have felt this way to begin with. It was a passing "fear" that came and went. I hope this thread finds its way back into the darkened basement of forgottenness!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think a collapse is necessarily eminent. But I do think that those of you who live and work in the city (any large U.S. city) are going to have the most difficulties. We are back and forth to D.C. every few years. But we own a home in a relatively rural area. We live on the water. We have plenty of land. And my family knows how to hunt, fish, and farm. We aren't surrounded by thousands of people. Fewer people = Less risk of crime. And our community wouldn't hesitate to help those in need. There would be no reason for people to start stealing....we would share with our neighbors. We also have two large german Shepherd dogs. And yes, we do own guns.

I'm honestly not worried. I think things will get better in our country. But I do think many people in America have lost the ability to take care of themselves and their families. Just look at what happened after Katrina. People waited assuming "the government" would help. When the government didn't show up, people got desperate. We were also affected by Katrina. No one looted. No one started breaking into homes. We just quietly went about the business of rebuilding and helping our neighbors. But again, we were far away from a large city. And we were prepared to take care of ourselves without the help of the government.

Oh yeah, you and Hank Jr think you're going to do better than city folk - till you run out of bullets. What is key to survival is social organization and community support - sounds like you may have it, then good for you. But lots of parts of the country have it, too, and they ain't out in the country.

I tend to agree with you. What's more likely to happen is--rather than a violent upheaval--a slow contraction of civilization from the far-flung exurbs back into the core. As society gradually gets less wealthy, the transportation network at the margins will slowly begin to unravel. Rail will become cheaper than truck, so our resources will go towards upgrading the railways. Things will get more expensive in rural areas. It'll probably become more expensive (and longer) to get from Harrisburg, VA to DC than it will from DC to NYC. Living in someplace like Leesburg will increasingly be like living in Alaska.

Of course, this will increase the utility of living nearer the urban core, so the poor and folks with few prospects will likely be pushed out further to the exurbs in the same way they're now being displaced to the close-in suburbs of PG County now. Eventually, things will look increasingly like a medieval city where the privileged few have places inside the "walls of the city", the poor are left to fend for themselves outside of it, and the rural folk eke out a living by bringing whatever they can coax out of the ground to the farmer's market outside the city walls.

OMG this is such city dweller wishful thinking. It's kind of sad that you think economic collapse is going to benefit your political agenda. But if you recall where the poor went during the depression, it was not into the cities.

I'm basing my analysis on dynamics that repeat throughout history. I actually agree with you though that the restless, violent poor aren't going to be going into the cities. Since that's where wealth will increasingly concentrate, it will remain one of the few areas of law and civilization. In times of crisis, the wealthy will band together and divert a greater share of wealth to common defense. Folks out in the hinterlands protected by nothing but a dog and a couple of guns will make a much softer target.

I'm curious: in the coming anarchy, do you really imagine you'll be the only one with a gun? It's a pretty common delusion, but I can never understand where it comes from. You outta read some Cormac McCarthy sometime.

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:OP here. Wow...wasn't expecting this to be dug out of the grave. This post was not one of my finer moments and I regret to have felt this way to begin with. It was a passing "fear" that came and went. I hope this thread finds its way back into the darkened basement of forgottenness!!

Well, you deserve a ton of credit for fessing up to being the OP.

[Anonymous]

Can you please explain to me what makes you believe that the entire civilization is about to collapse in the near future? Any evidence of events to come that would lead to such complete obliteration of the fabric of the cities and society at large?

Watching too many documentaries on 2012 end of the world?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think a collapse is necessarily eminent. But I do think that those of you who live and work in the city (any large U.S. city) are going to have the most difficulties. We are back and forth to D.C. every few years. But we own a home in a relatively rural area. We live on the water. We have plenty of land. And my family knows how to hunt, fish, and farm. We aren't surrounded by thousands of people. Fewer people = Less risk of crime. And our community wouldn't hesitate to help those in need. There would be no reason for people to start stealing....we would share with our neighbors. We also have two large german Shepherd dogs. And yes, we do own guns.

I'm honestly not worried. I think things will get better in our country. But I do think many people in America have lost the ability to take care of themselves and their families. Just look at what happened after Katrina. People waited assuming "the government" would help. When the government didn't show up, people got desperate. We were also affected by Katrina. No one looted. No one started breaking into homes. We just quietly went about the business of rebuilding and helping our neighbors. But again, we were far away from a large city. And we were prepared to take care of ourselves without the help of the government.

Oh yeah, you and Hank Jr think you're going to do better than city folk - till you run out of bullets. What is key to survival is social organization and community support - sounds like you may have it, then good for you. But lots of parts of the country have it, too, and they ain't out in the country.

I tend to agree with you. What's more likely to happen is--rather than a violent upheaval--a slow contraction of civilization from the far-flung exurbs back into the core. As society gradually gets less wealthy, the transportation network at the margins will slowly begin to unravel. Rail will become cheaper than truck, so our resources will go towards upgrading the railways. Things will get more expensive in rural areas. It'll probably become more expensive (and longer) to get from Harrisburg, VA to DC than it will from DC to NYC. Living in someplace like Leesburg will increasingly be like living in Alaska.

Of course, this will increase the utility of living nearer the urban core, so the poor and folks with few prospects will likely be pushed out further to the exurbs in the same way they're now being displaced to the close-in suburbs of PG County now. Eventually, things will look increasingly like a medieval city where the privileged few have places inside the "walls of the city", the poor are left to fend for themselves outside of it, and the rural folk eke out a living by bringing whatever they can coax out of the ground to the farmer's market outside the city walls.

OMG this is such city dweller wishful thinking. It's kind of sad that you think economic collapse is going to benefit your political agenda. But if you recall where the poor went during the depression, it was not into the cities.

I'm basing my analysis on dynamics that repeat throughout history. I actually agree with you though that the restless, violent poor aren't going to be going into the cities. Since that's where wealth will increasingly concentrate, it will remain one of the few areas of law and civilization. In times of crisis, the wealthy will band together and divert a greater share of wealth to common defense. Folks out in the hinterlands protected by nothing but a dog and a couple of guns will make a much softer target.

I'm curious: in the coming anarchy, do you really imagine you'll be the only one with a gun? It's a pretty common delusion, but I can never understand where it comes from. You outta read some Cormac McCarthy sometime.

Wow, where to start with the assumptions. First, you assume I live in the hinterlands. Nope. Second, who said guns? Not me. Third, I don't know which is worse about you quoting The Road - that it's fiction, or that you totally forgot about how the cities are burned to rubble and run by looters who, he wrote, would eat your children. Jesus, at least you could read the first few chapters.