Did anyone else underestimate their DC this application cycle?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Nice post, whether true or not, lifts my spirits today. College admissions seem hopeless to me.
-parent of rising junior

Yes, all of this! OP, can you tell us more about your kid and his acceptances! We are feeling discouraged over here!

[Anonymous]

So much context to this:

Is it an unhooked high stats kid heading to an ivy versus an unhooked high stats kid who aimed lower is headed to uva?

Is it a kid admitted to all schools applied to, but all have high acceptance rates?

etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nice post, whether true or not, lifts my spirits today. College admissions seem hopeless to me.
-parent of rising junior

Your kid is competing with fewer kids this upcoming cycle. Those that were born between Fall 2008 - Fall 2009

That's domestic numbers. International kids will make up the difference.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nice post, whether true or not, lifts my spirits today. College admissions seem hopeless to me.
-parent of rising junior

Your kid is competing with fewer kids this upcoming cycle. Those that were born between Fall 2008 - Fall 2009

Definitely a part of things. But the reasons for why there aren't a lot of great students today go beyond mere demographics. But if you have a top student with great ECs, it's been much easier - compared to a few years ago.

Had kids in both 2023 and 2026. Didn't see much difference. This is a weird thread based on zero data, no one even knows where op's kid is going.

[Anonymous]

We definitely underestimated our DC. They had a school picked for ED that I was convinced was a hard reach and a bad choice for ED (not much of a bump). They stuck with it, inspite of all the negativity from me (fed in part from DCUM ). They got in and we were done in Dec. Lesson learned - kids know quite a bit about this whole process, more than they may let on.

[Anonymous]

I feel this way, but I think it’s just post-application-cycle euphoria. Objectively, my kid was rejected at 3 of 4 reaches. But after worrying they’d be rejected from all their targets, the fact that they got into even one reach seems amazing!

[Anonymous]

Yes, things absolutely turned out better than I thought they could.

DC’s first choice was a reach - we thought
His GPA wasn’t high enough
His SAT wasn’t high enough
Even if he got in, they won’t offer enough aid to make it affordable for us

Wrong on 3 counts. He did ED, was accepted, and received an aid package far better than expected.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Congrats to your DC! I definitely see that kids are getting into good colleges - I'm a lot less stressed with our younger ones.

I look at this another way. Kids have ALWAYS gotten into good colleges! The question is, who will that be?

I think that it's healthy to be a bit guarded in expectations. I wouldn't want to scare my strong student into thinking they won't get into their safety schools, but nor should they confidently assume an Ivy acceptance, either. A healthy path is to find great schools where they can be confident about acceptance (like PP's kid) and then apply anywhere else that they're drawn to. Then you can be assured that they will have outcomes they are happy with.

[Anonymous]

We were pleasantly surprised by our DD’s results. Started out with an ED rejection at a reach so were prepared for more rejections but got into two reaches (the final two acceptances). Her GPA was 3.5 and she applied test optional to mostly liberal arts colleges. The reaches had around 30% acceptance rates (and she was kind of “on the bubble” for her private school’s scattergrams) so we really weren’t sure she’d get in. Pleased with the final results, including many acceptances and merit at several targets.

[Anonymous]

OP, can you name the school your CC suggested you DC ED'ed to vs the higher reach they actually got into?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:First of all, congratulations to your child and your family. I think words like “underestimate” or “overestimate” can sometimes imply a need for external validation. Maybe a better way to frame it is "do you reach your goals if not, why not"

DP

STFU

This place makes everyone think their kid is going to community college.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes. And I think it's because the tide is finally turning a bit, in favor of students. The jig is up, so to speak, in many of these schools' admissions policies.

Very different environment from when my older two went through this process 3 and 5 years ago.

I have never seen so many kids get off waitlists, for example, and have schools continue to contact them with additional merit money, after the May 1 supposed deadline.

I agree.

I had 2 go through the test optional admissions stupidity of 2020-2025, and it was a whole different animal.

We are so pleased with how things went for our youngest, who actually had much lower stats than the other two. The acceptances, rejections and wait lists actually make sense this year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I spent too much time on dcum, but I kept doubting many things. The GPA was not high enough? A high test score would not move the needle? No national awards? Say goodbye to top colleges. Listen to the school counselor and apply ED to a target school? On and on. But in the end, DC's results really surprised us.

DCUM will drive you crazy. So many mid families will tell you nobody can get in because their mid kids can't get in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nice post, whether true or not, lifts my spirits today. College admissions seem hopeless to me.
-parent of rising junior

Your kid is competing with fewer kids this upcoming cycle. Those that were born between Fall 2008 - Fall 2009

The birth rate has dropped almost every year since 2008. The virtual cap on international students also creates more room.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think the tide has turned a bit too. Lots of school have results that look more like a decade ago, than the past 8 or so years, especially beter than 2021-2025.

I wonder how much to keep stressing about the SAT. It's in range for top 20 for pre-2019 (based on that historic data) but there is still a sense of 1500+ or bust. When to just say "this is a great score and you've earned the right to apply anywhere."