Did anyone else underestimate their DC this application cycle?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes. And I think it's because the tide is finally turning a bit, in favor of students. The jig is up, so to speak, in many of these schools' admissions policies.

Very different environment from when my older two went through this process 3 and 5 years ago.

I have never seen so many kids get off waitlists, for example, and have schools continue to contact them with additional merit money, after the May 1 supposed deadline.

Let’s be honest about whats happening - it’s all about the money and who is willing to pay what. Many top students choose to follow the money and can be found at many different levels of schools these days - status seekers with deep pockets may not be the brightest, but they will take up spots the really talented kids on a budget turn down. I saw this first hand at our HS. …

Disagree with this, the very best schools offer fantastic, no-loan aid, and want to fill 20 percent of the class with first gen and 20 percent low income.

The kids who are “following the money” are not poor kids but high-stats kids whose parents are upper middle class or even upper class according to Pew, but who unfortunately make and/or saved just a little too much to get any aid at the very best schools. Such families can easily save a quarter to half the price of college by going in-state or even, in many cases, to an OOS public school.

Didn't see a lot of this. The private colleges seem to be going for the clearly full pay, and lower/middle income with AID. I imagine a lot of families who arent' eligible for aid, and don't want to or can't afford full pay at a private college don't bother applying.

You mean you “don’t see it” in your “imagination”? Kids on the bubble of getting financial aid often apply RD to see what kind of package they’ll get. But you don’t have any way to see their application, or whether they were accepted. All you can see is the waitlists moving, moving, moving, as the expensive colleges work through May to fill their classes.

P/Y/H and a few others offer aid to families making up to $300,000. For families making more than that, it is more a decision that they don’t want to pay that tuition than they can’t afford it. For private colleges with less generous aid, sure.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes. And I think it's because the tide is finally turning a bit, in favor of students. The jig is up, so to speak, in many of these schools' admissions policies.

Very different environment from when my older two went through this process 3 and 5 years ago.

I have never seen so many kids get off waitlists, for example, and have schools continue to contact them with additional merit money, after the May 1 supposed deadline.

Let’s be honest about whats happening - it’s all about the money and who is willing to pay what. Many top students choose to follow the money and can be found at many different levels of schools these days - status seekers with deep pockets may not be the brightest, but they will take up spots the really talented kids on a budget turn down. I saw this first hand at our HS. …

Disagree with this, the very best schools offer fantastic, no-loan aid, and want to fill 20 percent of the class with first gen and 20 percent low income.

The kids who are “following the money” are not poor kids but high-stats kids whose parents are upper middle class or even upper class according to Pew, but who unfortunately make and/or saved just a little too much to get any aid at the very best schools. Such families can easily save a quarter to half the price of college by going in-state or even, in many cases, to an OOS public school.

Didn't see a lot of this. The private colleges seem to be going for the clearly full pay, and lower/middle income with AID. I imagine a lot of families who arent' eligible for aid, and don't want to or can't afford full pay at a private college don't bother applying.

You mean you “don’t see it” in your “imagination”? Kids on the bubble of getting financial aid often apply RD to see what kind of package they’ll get. But you don’t have any way to see their application, or whether they were accepted. All you can see is the waitlists moving, moving, moving, as the expensive colleges work through May to fill their classes.

P/Y/H and a few others offer aid to families making up to $300,000. For families making more than that, it is more a decision that they don’t want to pay that tuition than they can’t afford it. For private colleges with less generous aid, sure.

This is true. Smart parents that don’t have millions to burn realize that the long game includes grad and professional degrees. I have kids in their mid to late 20s. One has a top 5 law degree the other is in a top grad school program in their field - both programs carpeted their employment options and earning potential. Most all of their friends also attended a grad program or are currently getting advanced degrees. This goes for Drs, Lawyers, consultants, teachers. Scientists and medical professionals, engineers, annd even HR professionals. The job market is terrible. Even top undergrad programs can land your kid in a low paying dead end job - don’t put all your eggs in an expensive undergrad basket. This is why waitlists are moving … savvy parents know it’s a long game. The ultimate prize is getting them through with zero debt.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes. And I think it's because the tide is finally turning a bit, in favor of students. The jig is up, so to speak, in many of these schools' admissions policies.

Very different environment from when my older two went through this process 3 and 5 years ago.

I have never seen so many kids get off waitlists, for example, and have schools continue to contact them with additional merit money, after the May 1 supposed deadline.

Let’s be honest about whats happening - it’s all about the money and who is willing to pay what. Many top students choose to follow the money and can be found at many different levels of schools these days - status seekers with deep pockets may not be the brightest, but they will take up spots the really talented kids on a budget turn down. I saw this first hand at our HS. …

Disagree with this, the very best schools offer fantastic, no-loan aid, and want to fill 20 percent of the class with first gen and 20 percent low income.

The kids who are “following the money” are not poor kids but high-stats kids whose parents are upper middle class or even upper class according to Pew, but who unfortunately make and/or saved just a little too much to get any aid at the very best schools. Such families can easily save a quarter to half the price of college by going in-state or even, in many cases, to an OOS public school.

Didn't see a lot of this. The private colleges seem to be going for the clearly full pay, and lower/middle income with AID. I imagine a lot of families who arent' eligible for aid, and don't want to or can't afford full pay at a private college don't bother applying.

You mean you “don’t see it” in your “imagination”? Kids on the bubble of getting financial aid often apply RD to see what kind of package they’ll get. But you don’t have any way to see their application, or whether they were accepted. All you can see is the waitlists moving, moving, moving, as the expensive colleges work through May to fill their classes.

P/Y/H and a few others offer aid to families making up to $300,000. For families making more than that, it is more a decision that they don’t want to pay that tuition than they can’t afford it. For private colleges with less generous aid, sure.

This is true. Smart parents that don’t have millions to burn realize that the long game includes grad and professional degrees. I have kids in their mid to late 20s. One has a top 5 law degree the other is in a top grad school program in their field - both programs carpeted their employment options and earning potential. Most all of their friends also attended a grad program or are currently getting advanced degrees. This goes for Drs, Lawyers, consultants, teachers. Scientists and medical professionals, engineers, annd even HR professionals. The job market is terrible. Even top undergrad programs can land your kid in a low paying dead end job - don’t put all your eggs in an expensive undergrad basket. This is why waitlists are moving … savvy parents know it’s a long game. The ultimate prize is getting them through with zero debt.

lol, this is not why wait lists are moving. The public schools, like UVA, are the big movers, which is the opposite of your premise.

[Anonymous]

Pp- that scenario fits the premise perfectly actually.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Pp- that scenario fits the premise perfectly actually.

The fact that uva overestimated yield supports the premise that public schools are getting more kids than normal? The premise may be correct, but this particular evidence does not support it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It was a bumpy ride for DC. CC recommended ED to a school with a 10 to 15 % AR, but DC chose to ED to their first choice with a sub-10% AR, deferred (eventually reject). Then submitted 12 RD applications and ED2 to another sub-10% school, deferred again (eventually reject). On Ivy day, DC got two acceptances.

Were the 2 accepts on Ivy day more or less selective than what CC originally recommended your DC to ED (the 10-15% AR school)? Was it a school your DC likes as much as the school CC recommended?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It was a bumpy ride for DC. CC recommended ED to a school with a 10 to 15 % AR, but DC chose to ED to their first choice with a sub-10% AR, deferred (eventually reject). Then submitted 12 RD applications and ED2 to another sub-10% school, deferred again (eventually reject). On Ivy day, DC got two acceptances.

Were the 2 accepts on Ivy day more or less selective than what CC originally recommended your DC to ED (the 10-15% AR school)? Was it a school your DC likes as much as the school CC recommended?

RD Ivy (Ivy Day) acceptance rates are btw 2-8%, right?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:These humble brag threads are the worst. “I totally didn’t expect it because my kid only had a 1580 and only got runner up in their highly selective nations ecs, but they got into every T20…much to my surprise!!!”

One thing I don’t see this year is the sweeping T20 applicants. It seems even the strong students are getting some rejections.

Agree with this. It actually has been pretty hard to sweep unless first gen or URM for several years now. And the unhooked kids with the strongest resumes often stop if they get their first choice in ED/SCEA/REA.

Agree no one sweeps anymore unless you are 1480 first gen black male from North Dakota. Super high-stats national award HYP admits routinely get rejected by high target schools like Tufts and WashU for yield protection.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The private schools in our area had banner years with the Ivies and private colleges in the T25. It seems, at least with respect to full pay admits, in the age of rampant grade inflation, they want to get back to schools they are familiar with. In our area, with respect to public schools, they are passing over (not entirely, but accepting less kids) from the wealthier suburban high schools in favor of rural or lower income public schools.

I am confused. Are wealth suburb schools the schools they are familiar with?

In my city, almost all the H/Y/P admits were from the private schools, many of which have traditionally done well with the Ivies but had a dip in the first year or two after covid, with very few from the wealthier public schools. The lower income and rural public schools did better than in past years, as did the schools with a lot of first gen Americans.

If your from a private school in a city, how would you also know what's happening at rural public schools? So many fake experts/ so much misinformation on this site.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Our private high school had more kids than usual get into T30s and fewer get into T10s

So the insta page looks great with Notre Dame and Northwestern and UChicago, but you dont know how those kids were all hoping for HYPSM etc. Where our HS usually sends a couple to each each year.

Northwestern and UChicago are T10.

+1.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pp- that scenario fits the premise perfectly actually.

The fact that uva overestimated yield supports the premise that public schools are getting more kids than normal? The premise may be correct, but this particular evidence does not support it.

UVA did not have supplemental essays this year, so more top kids decided to throw in an application.

No surprise that this complicated yield predictions!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It was a bumpy ride for DC. CC recommended ED to a school with a 10 to 15 % AR, but DC chose to ED to their first choice with a sub-10% AR, deferred (eventually reject). Then submitted 12 RD applications and ED2 to another sub-10% school, deferred again (eventually reject). On Ivy day, DC got two acceptances.

I have a rising senior so soon to be going through this. I think your DC did it right. Applied to dream school and even if rejected, at least no “what if’s.” I hear a lot of rejections but ended up with some fantastic options and no uncertainties about what might have been.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It was a bumpy ride for DC. CC recommended ED to a school with a 10 to 15 % AR, but DC chose to ED to their first choice with a sub-10% AR, deferred (eventually reject). Then submitted 12 RD applications and ED2 to another sub-10% school, deferred again (eventually reject). On Ivy day, DC got two acceptances.

I have a rising senior so soon to be going through this. I think your DC did it right. Applied to dream school and even if rejected, at least no “what if’s.” I hear a lot of rejections but ended up with some fantastic options and no uncertainties about what might have been.

More common to settle, rather than have lots of “great” options, if overshoot ED.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes. And I think it's because the tide is finally turning a bit, in favor of students. The jig is up, so to speak, in many of these schools' admissions policies.

Very different environment from when my older two went through this process 3 and 5 years ago.

I have never seen so many kids get off waitlists, for example, and have schools continue to contact them with additional merit money, after the May 1 supposed deadline.

Let’s be honest about whats happening - it’s all about the money and who is willing to pay what. Many top students choose to follow the money and can be found at many different levels of schools these days - status seekers with deep pockets may not be the brightest, but they will take up spots the really talented kids on a budget turn down. I saw this first hand at our HS. …

Disagree with this, the very best schools offer fantastic, no-loan aid, and want to fill 20 percent of the class with first gen and 20 percent low income.

The kids who are “following the money” are not poor kids but high-stats kids whose parents are upper middle class or even upper class according to Pew, but who unfortunately make and/or saved just a little too much to get any aid at the very best schools. Such families can easily save a quarter to half the price of college by going in-state or even, in many cases, to an OOS public school.

Didn't see a lot of this. The private colleges seem to be going for the clearly full pay, and lower/middle income with AID. I imagine a lot of families who arent' eligible for aid, and don't want to or can't afford full pay at a private college don't bother applying.

You mean you “don’t see it” in your “imagination”? Kids on the bubble of getting financial aid often apply RD to see what kind of package they’ll get. But you don’t have any way to see their application, or whether they were accepted. All you can see is the waitlists moving, moving, moving, as the expensive colleges work through May to fill their classes.

A lot of waitlists at private colleges already closed. UVA taking a ton of waitlist though.