This will be the worst year for college admissions?

[Anonymous]

Everyone we know at MCPS born before the September 2007 cutoff graduated this past June. I can see a couple of exceptions but for the most part these kids already graduated high school.

[Anonymous]

The 2025 graduating class was the most impacted by college admissions. Once the recession hit, people slowed down having kids. As a result, the 2026 graduates should fare better.

[Anonymous]

2026 is going to be the easiest of the last several years for full pay kids. Every single factor is aligning up in their favor.

[Anonymous]

Someone says this every year

[Anonymous]

The macro birth rate trends are not what will make a difference in college admissions year to year; it’s meaningless that 2008 birth rates are slightly lower than peak 2007 birth rates.

The things that will affect admissions this year are things like:

economic precarity (it’s bad and getting worse, and the vibes are terrible, which will affect who applies and where)

international student issues (challenges of getting a visa, as well as reduced attractiveness of studying in the US)

fed funding cuts to research universities (they need revenue and will almost certainly favor full-pay students)

fed funding cuts to minority-serving institutions (which include most universities in California, for example, and will have far-ranging impact on university operations/capacity)

likely retractions/closures among smaller, regional schools that were already barely hanging on (meaning fewer total student slots)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The macro birth rate trends are not what will make a difference in college admissions year to year; it’s meaningless that 2008 birth rates are slightly lower than peak 2007 birth rates.

The things that will affect admissions this year are things like:

economic precarity (it’s bad and getting worse, and the vibes are terrible, which will affect who applies and where)

international student issues (challenges of getting a visa, as well as reduced attractiveness of studying in the US)

fed funding cuts to research universities (they need revenue and will almost certainly favor full-pay students)

fed funding cuts to minority-serving institutions (which include most universities in California, for example, and will have far-ranging impact on university operations/capacity)

likely retractions/closures among smaller, regional schools that were already barely hanging on (meaning fewer total student slots)

Also unemployment. Applications go up when jobs are scarce.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Baby boom for this century births peaked between July-September 2007. Many of those kids are seniors now. Won't this make it the worst college admissions season ever?

I don't understand why some parents on this thread think it will be easier. Please educate me. I'm worried and I need some good news.

You’re overthinking this.

[Anonymous]

Whenever you have a kid in the cycle it is always the worst year ever.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My December 2007 baby has just arrived at college. She has friends born in Jan 2008 doing the same.

There's a ton of public school kids (many more than private) who are younger because they started school on time or youngest in their grade, the cut off month was different, etc.

Huh??? These kids are 17 until December or January of freshman year of college. This is really, really
unusual. There aren't "tons" of them anywhere. There weren't tons of them in 1992 when I went to college as an October birthday.

I was 17 until November of freshman year (early 90s).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Whenever you have a kid in the cycle it is always the worst year ever.

+1

It’s like wherever you happen to be driving at the moment has the wOrSt DrIvErS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Whenever you have a kid in the cycle it is always the worst year ever.

Naturally.

It is still true that admissions rates were higher in 2010. And higher than that in 1990. And higher than that in 1970. And higher than that in 1950. There is a very real trend here, even if you want to deny it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Red-shirting meaning many should have graduated last year according to age but instead will be graduating this year. Old seniors

There's no "mass red-shirting". Many parents are just following the age guidelines of their school/state. Some states (CO, CA, MI, NY) expect you to have turned 5 by Sept or Oct to start public K. And many privates require kid to turn 5 by August 1st to start private K.

[Anonymous]

My anecdata with a 2023 grad and a 2026 grad (born summer 2008) is that the 2023 grad had significantly more students in their cohort than the 2026 grad. The 2026 grad was an in an anomalous year in DCPS, NWDC, not sure if this was a wider trend. Literally the class cohorts the year behind and ahead were each 20% larger.