50% in the G fund?
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Anonymous
This and suggest also asking the same question at Bogleheads. |
Anonymous
| If there’s a crash buy into the market with more cash. Trying to time the market is pointless unless you have insider information. |
Anonymous
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Market timing is a fool's game. An intelligently constructed portfolio will maximize returns and minimize risk over market cycles. A portfolio which shifts with the winds is almost certainly going to lose money compared to one which is well designed to begin with and which remains consistent.
https://www.sarwa.co/blog/does-timing-the-market-work |
Anonymous
This is the only time that I try to time the market. If I see the S&P 500 down 10% to 20% from its peak, I will put 1% to 2% of my net worth (sitting in cash) in to the index. Other than that, I don't time the market. I just invest steadily by maxing out my 401K and IRA every year and buying equity index or bond index funds over time. As a Federal employee at age 46, I'm about 69% equities and 31% bonds/fixed income. I will likely dial the risk down to a 60/40 split as I get closer to retirement. |
Anonymous
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Another Fed trying to time the market. Good luck. I should say "stay in your lane". Do you guys understand your pension is an annuity a bond equivalent? So typically that means you could go more aggressive in your TSP.
I just spoke to a Fed age 63 who took his TSP and put it into an IRA. About $1.6 mil and only $400k is now invested in S&P 500 the rest in cash. He intends to trade that account using IBD Investor's Business daily recommendations. In his defense he is a good trader but still it seems foolish to me to have all the cash not invested. So I'm sure he mostly missed out on Friday's move after Powell's speech. Again stay in your lane. |
Anonymous
| G fund is treasures. Those have their terrible risks in current environment |
Anonymous
This is the only time that I try to time the market. If I see the S&P 500 down 10% to 20% from its peak, I will put 1% to 2% of my net worth (sitting in cash) in to the index. Other than that, I don't time the market. I just invest steadily by maxing out my 401K and IRA every year and buying equity index or bond index funds over time. As a Federal employee at age 46, I'm about 69% equities and 31% bonds/fixed income. I will likely dial the risk down to a 60/40 split as I get closer to retirement. |
Anonymous
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My tsp was at ~ 675k in late March, all in stocks. Just checked and my gains from 30 March to date (not counting new contributions) were 115k.
To me a key benefit of the pension is that it allows you to be less conservative with other investments. |
Anonymous
This misses the entire point of the G fund— it has no interest rates risk. |
Anonymous
No— I think that poster is making a more clear headed point than you are. If your pension covers your basic expenses and you only plan to tap your TSP for additional expenses, say 1-2% of the balance a year, then it doesn’t really matter how you invest your TSP. You can be very aggressive or very conservative. However, if you are counting on TSP to cover basic expenses — maybe you plan to tap 4-5% of the balance a year— then having a pension doesn’t give you license to be more aggressive with your TSP— you should think carefully about whether you are prepared to accept a 50% drop in the market. |
Anonymous
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Everyone appreciates the sage advice not to time the market, but it’s pretty clear stagflation is in the mail, but yet arrived fully. Prices are slowly creeping up from tariffs.
I want to be somewhat defensive with my tsp. I allocated 80% I fund and 20% C fund in January and have been doing well. I don’t think the continued gains will last more than the next two years. I guess G fund is always a safe low fee place to park some money for a while. However, I also want put some money in the mutual Fund window. I am tempted to look for a gold or gold related mutual fund there to put 10% in to help weather what’s coming. Inflation + job losses = 70’s style stagflation. Coupled with us relinquishing our role as the world's market place recently… so I am considering 40% of my portfolio to be allocated in the tsp mfw as a mix of VTIAX and a gold mutual fund. Then when the market crashes later I will reallocate to VTSAX or just back to the tsp regular funds of I and S split 50%. |
Anonymous
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OP, here is what our CFP said to me when I was in your situation (early 50s, and I planned to retire at MRA + 10, so 5-10 years in the future): if it helps you sleep at night, escalate the date as of which you keep in cash the cash you will need for the first few years of retirement.
That requires figuring out how much cash you will need out of your TSP in the first few years of retirement. So I'd start there. |
Anonymous
Hopefully you are more successful than the MIT grads with decades of experience on Wall Street who can't seem to beat the market after accounting for fees. |