50% in the G fund?

[Anonymous]

Wondering if there’s a consensus about how much to keep in cash during this time of uncertainty.

My stats: early 50s with 1.5M in retirement savings. I was 100% invested in the C fund until a couple of weeks before the tarrif dip when I took 50% and put it in G. My new contributions are 100% going into C.

Strategy: My sense is to keep the 700k in the G untill the market crashes. What say you?

[Anonymous]

I say you're engaged in market timing and it won't end well.

Read up on the topic.

[Anonymous]

how much will be your pension? is pension + ss enough to support your lifestyle? if so, keep it in the market. if not, go with L fund that matches your schedule.

[Anonymous]

I don't understand. If you're confident the market is going to crash, why not put 100% into the G fund? For that matter, why not use your assets to take a short position?

[Anonymous]

LOL. Okay.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't understand. If you're confident the market is going to crash, why not put 100% into the G fund? For that matter, why not use your assets to take a short position?

OP here - it’s a hedge against my own stupidity. Twice in my life (dotcom and Great Recession) I’ve had a feeling that the market was going to crash but both times I did do anything to take advantage. Hoping this time is different. Of course I’ve been wrong before.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't understand. If you're confident the market is going to crash, why not put 100% into the G fund? For that matter, why not use your assets to take a short position?

OP here - it’s a hedge against my own stupidity. Twice in my life (dotcom and Great Recession) I’ve had a feeling that the market was going to crash but both times I did do anything to take advantage. Hoping this time is different. Of course I’ve been wrong before.

But taking advantage at those times would have been to stay the course, not to dip in and out.

[Anonymous]

Since you are in your 50’s, I think it is reasonable to have a small percent of your retirement in safer investments. But 50 percent seems quite high. Do you plan to retire at 60 or keep working?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't understand. If you're confident the market is going to crash, why not put 100% into the G fund? For that matter, why not use your assets to take a short position?

OP here - it’s a hedge against my own stupidity. Twice in my life (dotcom and Great Recession) I’ve had a feeling that the market was going to crash but both times I did do anything to take advantage. Hoping this time is different. Of course I’ve been wrong before.

The problem with market timing is the timing. They don’t ring a bell at the top or bottom. It usually crashes sooner or keeps going up longer than you expect. In hindsight it’s easy to remember that you had a feeling it might crash but that often wasn’t at the very top. What if the fed cuts rates and the market jumps?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:how much will be your pension? is pension + ss enough to support your lifestyle? if so, keep it in the market. if not, go with L fund that matches your schedule.

^^ this sort of logic. The pension is essentially a bond so if you are a long term fed 40% or so of your retirement is in a G fund equivalent already. Many of those 401k rules of thumb about what percentage to have in bonds at a certain age are generated assuming no pension and only 401k

[Anonymous]

So, stock market will be going up for awhile, but you already sold? Too early.

[Anonymous]

Put new contributions into an L fund. Pick L 2040 or whenever you will be taking money out.

They do really well an managing the dips. My L2020 outperformed my Vanguard and TIAA portfolios 2000-2020.

[Anonymous]

I'm mid-50s and have a 66/33 equity/bond (G) portfolio. It's plenty large, and I can sleep at night. The amount in G is enough to keep me afloat for about 10 years - enough to get me through a bad market downfall.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wondering if there’s a consensus about how much to keep in cash during this time of uncertainty.

My stats: early 50s with 1.5M in retirement savings. I was 100% invested in the C fund until a couple of weeks before the tarrif dip when I took 50% and put it in G. My new contributions are 100% going into C.

Strategy: My sense is to keep the 700k in the G untill the market crashes. What say you?

A time of uncertainty? The market has been incredible. Rates are likely to fall soon. Why would you get out? Why would you ever get out? Ride the wave.

[Anonymous]

I am 55 and I am retiring in 2 years- I have about 2M in TSP- I have slowly moved money into the the g fund since I have turned 50- I now have about 70%stocks, 30% g fund- probably will be at 65% 35% when I retire.