Global econ alliances?
![[Post New]](/jforum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif){kind=icon}
Anonymous
Absolutely, he’s handed the keys to China. There will be other players and realignments, but they are the new sheriff in town. |
Anonymous
|
I cannot believe that Vance called the Chinese "peasants." That will go a long way.
The Chinese, whatever you want to say about them, are one of the smartest, most educated and complex/cleverest people. Their govt is full of the brightest and most educated. They do not do shit 1/2 assed like we do in the US. Humiliating and angering the Chinese is not the way to go! https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/08/china/china-slams-vance-peasants-remarks-intl-hnk/index.html |
Anonymous
| Americans are only 5 percent of the world's population. The rest of the world will quickly move on from a US-centric global trading system. Canada, Australia, NZ, Japan, and the UK will quickly form a bloc with the EU. But it is China that is the big winner from America's decision to withdraw from the world. China will be the center of economic and political power for the foreseeable future. |
Anonymous
I’m not sure that’s the case. The political systems in many democracies are very different to that in the US. In most major European countries, it is rare for one political party to govern in its own right. They mostly rely on coalitions which necessitate compromise and does not concentrate power in the same way. In parliamentary democracies, power does not vest in one person who has executive powers like the US president. Remember how PM Liz Truss got the boot from her own party in the UK? I think Trump’s current moves are possibly weakening support for the far right in many countries. You can see that in the conservative press in many places. Australia is in the run up to a federal election next month and the leader of the conservative opposition party has significantly toned down his approach (after previously deploying some obvious Trumpian rhetoric). Australia saw itself as a loyal ally and its dollar is now being pummelled after Trump announced 10% tariffs (despite Australia having no tariffs on the US). Of course Australia’s compulsory preferential voting system also mitigates against extreme political platforms. |
Anonymous
Actually I think other countries may move quickly to shore up their own national interests which may mean enhancing their own protectionist measures if necessary. Don’t forget the US still accounts for 25% of the world’s GDP. Japan, UK, Canada and Australia only account for about 10% combined. NZ doesn’t count at all economically. The E.U. already has protectionist policies in place and may double down on its existing measures. The Common Agricultural Policy imposes quotas and tariffs on agricultural imports. Half of the EUs steel imports last year were subject to tariffs. It won’t want Canadian steel being dumped on its own markets. It already significantly restricts beef imports from Australia. Japan already significantly protects its own agriculture and steel industries. |
Anonymous
The World Economic Forum is the de-facto regulator for global economic activity. It’s dominance and power will only grow with the USA stepping aside. |
Anonymous
|
No country in the world of economic importance is capable of or has the political fortitude to run perpetual deficits. Full stop. That’s the rub and why Trump has leverage.
This doesn’t mean that Trump will win, but economic alliances to date have been sustained by America’s willingness to run trade deficits and kill off our manufacturing base in exchange for all the benefits and influence of of being the world’s reserve currency. The idea that a bunch of countries who have built their economies on trade surpluses are now going to be okay with more balanced trade or be willing to run perpetual trade deficits is pure fantasy. The probable outcome of all of this from Trump is that nobody wins. |
Anonymous
The part in bold makes the case for what Trump is doing. You just made his argument for him. Glad you finally said the quiet part out loud. |
Anonymous
So it's been raised that the short-sightedness and pettiness of MAGA Trump supporters to this ridiculous approach for resolving trade deficits is somehow equalizing the playing field or maybe punishing other countries for taking advantage of US markets is totally whacko. Trade is a game where everyone wins. Some things you can get more but in other areas, you may get less. The fact that Japan is a smaller country than us means they - guess what? - consume less than the US! They in turn may have more money to come visit and spend on tourism in the US whereby, helping us out economically. Do you get that equation? Trade is not just a one dimensional zero sum game. It's about building relationships where we help each other and we want a win-win business relationship because when it's not a win-win and when there's too much greed for one country, nobody actually wins. The relationships element of trade keeps things a win-win. Of course, you can tweak relationships/balance and you can approach various strategies to help your country optimize trade transactions but typically you do that very carefully, over time usually and industry specific. You do not climb over everyone and try to get to the top of the hill and say everyone has taken advantage of you so now you are going to take revenge and equalize so that you change all trade policies overnight. This ruins the relationship, it ruins the ability for other countries to actually help you out as well because you take away their economic stability. This is called lose-lose and this is what currently Trump is imposing on all of us! |
Anonymous
This is just naive. Trade is a game where theoretically everyone wins at the nation state level. But at the individual citizen level there are absolutely winners and losers in trade. Communities of every political persuasion in the USA have been economically wiped out by free trade over the past 30 years. And their loss has been a gain of communities in place like Canada, Mexico and China. The idea that coal miners and journalists are going to retrain into knowledge economy workers has proved to be a farce. Maybe retraining workers was a good theory in the mid-90s, but Ross Perot was right: the giant sucking sound was jobs leaving for Mexico and there was nothing else for these people to do. Add in downward pressure on wages from undocumented migrants, and is it any wonder there is an isolationist/protectionist flavor to Trump’s base?
Buying friends works until you stop paying. We can decide to stop paying whenever we want to. If the relationship cannot withstand it, then it was not a friendship to begin with. |