I’m 10% BTC and 90% S&P 500

[Anonymous]

I have Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, Netflix, and a few other tech stocks (and Bitcoin ETF just for laughs).

It has worked well so far. I buy and hold.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’ll be laughing when the government seizes all Bitcoin and jails everybody that ever possessed one. You’re gonna be first, buddy-o

That's a grotesque way to say Bitcoin as a currency has shaky future. More rational concerns for me is competition with government issued digital currency and Bitcoin never taking off and remaining a speculative asset. People are banking on Bitcoin becoming universal currency. CBDC is more likely, and competition will be killed or tightly controlled.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
I have Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, Netflix, and a few other tech stocks (and Bitcoin ETF just for laughs).

It has worked well so far. I buy and hold.

this looks good to me

[Anonymous]

Bitcoin is highly correlated with the Nasdaq, but with more volatility. Just get QQQ for more stability, dividends, and the likelyhood of growth.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP I think that is a perfectly fine and even conservative allocation to crypto.

This may be working well (my portfolio is similar) but it’s hard to call 100% risk assets a conservative allocation. It’s objectively risky and that’s great, depending on your time horizon and personal risk tolerance. Just be honest with yourself.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If someone will explain to me how a “thing” that has a ridiculously slow transaction time, is scarce by design, requires you to maintain custody of the “key”, fluctuates rapidly even day/to-day let alone the peaks and valleys of year over year, and pretty much always needs to be converted to a nations currency to be of any use to settle debts, has any practical function in society and deserves to be valued higher than zero (other than people’s current willingness to pay for it because it’s “cool”), I’ll buy it. Market value is the price someone is willing to pay for something… and people’s willingness to pay for bitcoin doesn’t seem durable for the above stated reasons.

That's what I thought a few years ago. I was wrong. I have no bitcoin and don't plan to buy any for exactly those reasons, but I also won't be shocked if in 10 years we are proven wrong. Bitcoin is very risky, but I no longer think it's a completely stupid investment. A completely stupid idea, yes, but it might turn out to be a good investment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Bitcoin is highly correlated with the Nasdaq, but with more volatility. Just get QQQ for more stability, dividends, and the likelyhood of growth.

Maybe they are correlated, maybe they are not. It depends what metric you choose. But correlation does not matter because it does not say if growth is happening at the same rate. BTC is up 45/103/425% (YTD/1Y/5Y) while QQQ is up 10/30/21% If you could go back in time, you would be a fool to take QQQ over BTC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Bitcoin is highly correlated with the Nasdaq, but with more volatility. Just get QQQ for more stability, dividends, and the likelyhood of growth.

Maybe they are correlated, maybe they are not. It depends what metric you choose. But correlation does not matter because it does not say if growth is happening at the same rate. BTC is up 45/103/425% (YTD/1Y/5Y) while QQQ is up 10/30/21% If you could go back in time, you would be a fool to take QQQ over BTC.

Only if you also sell before it crashes again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If someone will explain to me how a “thing” that has a ridiculously slow transaction time, is scarce by design, requires you to maintain custody of the “key”, fluctuates rapidly even day/to-day let alone the peaks and valleys of year over year, and pretty much always needs to be converted to a nations currency to be of any use to settle debts, has any practical function in society and deserves to be valued higher than zero (other than people’s current willingness to pay for it because it’s “cool”), I’ll buy it. Market value is the price someone is willing to pay for something… and people’s willingness to pay for bitcoin doesn’t seem durable for the above stated reasons.

That's what I thought a few years ago. I was wrong. I have no bitcoin and don't plan to buy any for exactly those reasons, but I also won't be shocked if in 10 years we are proven wrong. Bitcoin is very risky, but I no longer think it's a completely stupid investment. A completely stupid idea, yes, but it might turn out to be a good investment.

Bitcoin has been "popular" for about 10 years now, and yet we still dont' see it being used for any transactions other than grey market or illegal stuff (drugs, gambling) that regular banks and card processors won't touch. I just don't see it suddendly becoming popular in that way in the future.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Bitcoin is highly correlated with the Nasdaq, but with more volatility. Just get QQQ for more stability, dividends, and the likelyhood of growth.

Yeah, now bitcoin is like a tech stock, a risk asset. Remember before when it was going to be digital gold, but then they realized that no one in their right mind would consider something with insane volatility as a store of value? Or remember when it was going to be a currency until people realized the transaction costs made that impossible?

The bitcoin bros just make up whatever they need to at any given time. Bitcoin is basically nothing, but people are willing to buy it because the price has been going up—textbook bubble behavior.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ll be laughing when the government seizes all Bitcoin and jails everybody that ever possessed one. You’re gonna be first, buddy-o

That's a grotesque way to say Bitcoin as a currency has shaky future. More rational concerns for me is competition with government issued digital currency and Bitcoin never taking off and remaining a speculative asset. People are banking on Bitcoin becoming universal currency. CBDC is more likely, and competition will be killed or tightly controlled.

Why would anyone put their money in a CBDC that can be inflated away just like regular USD? No investor is going to want to hold that.

The people who criticize bitcoin for being backed by nothing ignore that almost every currency now is backed by nothing, except faith. I don't know where it's gonna go but I still hold some to get proper exposure. I'm not a huge fan of alt coins because they're very flavor of the month. Only BTC and a few others endure multiple crypto bear markets while hitting new highs with each bull.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ll be laughing when the government seizes all Bitcoin and jails everybody that ever possessed one. You’re gonna be first, buddy-o

That's a grotesque way to say Bitcoin as a currency has shaky future. More rational concerns for me is competition with government issued digital currency and Bitcoin never taking off and remaining a speculative asset. People are banking on Bitcoin becoming universal currency. CBDC is more likely, and competition will be killed or tightly controlled.

Why would anyone put their money in a CBDC that can be inflated away just like regular USD? No investor is going to want to hold that.

The people who criticize bitcoin for being backed by nothing ignore that almost every currency now is backed by nothing, except faith. I don't know where it's gonna go but I still hold some to get proper exposure. I'm not a huge fan of alt coins because they're very flavor of the month. Only BTC and a few others endure multiple crypto bear markets while hitting new highs with each bull.

This is where I struggle. I don't think BTC is the right block chain technology to be the long term winner if crypto were to ever become an everyday currency. All the other crypto currencies seem to small to be a reasonable high risk investment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ll be laughing when the government seizes all Bitcoin and jails everybody that ever possessed one. You’re gonna be first, buddy-o

That's a grotesque way to say Bitcoin as a currency has shaky future. More rational concerns for me is competition with government issued digital currency and Bitcoin never taking off and remaining a speculative asset. People are banking on Bitcoin becoming universal currency. CBDC is more likely, and competition will be killed or tightly controlled.

Why would anyone put their money in a CBDC that can be inflated away just like regular USD? No investor is going to want to hold that.

The people who criticize bitcoin for being backed by nothing ignore that almost every currency now is backed by nothing, except faith. I don't know where it's gonna go but I still hold some to get proper exposure. I'm not a huge fan of alt coins because they're very flavor of the month. Only BTC and a few others endure multiple crypto bear markets while hitting new highs with each bull.

This is where I struggle. I don't think BTC is the right block chain technology to be the long term winner if crypto were to ever become an everyday currency. All the other crypto currencies seem to small to be a reasonable high risk investment.

Blockchain is always going to have some hard limitations on being useful as a currency. No matter what you do it's a massively decentralized database that deals with high latency of needing to propagate transactions to millions of computers. You can only speed that up so much. It will always be slow compared to centralized payment networks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ll be laughing when the government seizes all Bitcoin and jails everybody that ever possessed one. You’re gonna be first, buddy-o

That's a grotesque way to say Bitcoin as a currency has shaky future. More rational concerns for me is competition with government issued digital currency and Bitcoin never taking off and remaining a speculative asset. People are banking on Bitcoin becoming universal currency. CBDC is more likely, and competition will be killed or tightly controlled.

Why would anyone put their money in a CBDC that can be inflated away just like regular USD? No investor is going to want to hold that.

The people who criticize bitcoin for being backed by nothing ignore that almost every currency now is backed by nothing, except faith. I don't know where it's gonna go but I still hold some to get proper exposure. I'm not a huge fan of alt coins because they're very flavor of the month. Only BTC and a few others endure multiple crypto bear markets while hitting new highs with each bull.

The USD is not backed by gold anymore, but is are backed by the fact that the US government will accept it for payments, including of taxes, which is one factor that ensures its value.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ll be laughing when the government seizes all Bitcoin and jails everybody that ever possessed one. You’re gonna be first, buddy-o

That's a grotesque way to say Bitcoin as a currency has shaky future. More rational concerns for me is competition with government issued digital currency and Bitcoin never taking off and remaining a speculative asset. People are banking on Bitcoin becoming universal currency. CBDC is more likely, and competition will be killed or tightly controlled.

Why would anyone put their money in a CBDC that can be inflated away just like regular USD? No investor is going to want to hold that.

The people who criticize bitcoin for being backed by nothing ignore that almost every currency now is backed by nothing, except faith. I don't know where it's gonna go but I still hold some to get proper exposure. I'm not a huge fan of alt coins because they're very flavor of the month. Only BTC and a few others endure multiple crypto bear markets while hitting new highs with each bull.

This is where I struggle. I don't think BTC is the right block chain technology to be the long term winner if crypto were to ever become an everyday currency. All the other crypto currencies seem to small to be a reasonable high risk investment.

That’s the problem. It has value because people trade it like it has value. But technology reinvents itself so rapidly (and constantly), who’s to say if it’s still relevant in 5, 10, 20 years. It needs government backing to have a long-term future. As a crypto technology, it’s obviously antiquated.