Duke Sees Dramatic Spike for 2028 ED applicants... Yikes!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DD's counselor got an email from Duke, they received a ~30% increase in ED applicants this year, and are projecting an ED acceptance rate below 13%... This has not helped DD's confidence for her ED chances. On a lighter note, has anyone else seen the applicant numbers for their kid's early school yet?

I wonder if that 30% jump means that people are getting realistic about the highest reach schools or if Duke has become one of those schools. I'd assume that everyone who can afford to apply ED applies somewhere ED, so the bump has to come from somewhere

Duke has always been a high reach school, in my opinion.

There are levels of high reach. Everyone EDs and has for a few years now. Is that 30% coming from kids trying to be 'realistic' and choosing Duke over Princeton or is it coming from kids reaching higher and choosing Duke over Emory? I really doubt it's coming from kids who otherwise wouldn't have applied anywhere ED last year

From what we've seen it's been the more academically strong kids going for Duke ED. Even without my anecdotal experience, I highly doubt the ED pool is filled with less qualified kids considering for kids who care about rankings, Duke rose to #7 on US News this year. Duke is probably stealing some of the Harvard and Stanford early applicants. And considering a PP said Yale only saw a 1% increase in early applicants, there could be a large swath of kids opting for Duke this year over Yale for various fit reasons and with support from only a 2 rank gap in US News. I doubt anyone cares about US News that much though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wow, my DS applied to Yale early and they only saw a 1% increase in early applicants this year. Duke is seriously getting popular, my DS is definitely applying RD even if Yale comes back with an acceptance.

That can be smart in the best case scenario too because Duke will play ball $$ wise with a Yale acceptance. I know someone who was pretty close to going to Duke over Stanford under similar circumstances with a large amount of $$.

Eh, at this level of selectivity kids are highly likely to be accepted Yale EA and get rejected Duke RD. Especially looking at the early numbers from this year, it looks like both Duke and Yale will end up with overall acceptance rates of ~4.5%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wow, my DS applied to Yale early and they only saw a 1% increase in early applicants this year. Duke is seriously getting popular, my DS is definitely applying RD even if Yale comes back with an acceptance.

That can be smart in the best case scenario too because Duke will play ball $$ wise with a Yale acceptance. I know someone who was pretty close to going to Duke over Stanford under similar circumstances with a large amount of $$.

Eh, at this level of selectivity kids are highly likely to be accepted Yale EA and get rejected Duke RD. Especially looking at the early numbers from this year, it looks like both Duke and Yale will end up with overall acceptance rates of ~4.5%.

So less than 1 in 20 for both Duke and Yale. This is why my kid is applying far and wide, because there's no guarantees, but it's also sweet if they get in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wow, my DS applied to Yale early and they only saw a 1% increase in early applicants this year. Duke is seriously getting popular, my DS is definitely applying RD even if Yale comes back with an acceptance.

Yep, Duke is really breaking through right now. My daughter said a slew of some of the best kids in her grade ED'ed to Duke this year... and the sad part is based on history, only a few of them will get in. But that's the game, and you have to at least do yourself the courtesy of trying to get in. My daughter will also be going for RD.

This is nothing new, there are valedictorians who ED to Duke every year from all around the country. It's a perennial T10. It might just be getting a bit more popular now because kids might be leaning more towards quality of life and good weather, which Duke offers while maintaining its high academic reputation. I imagine Vanderbilt will get the same benefit but to a lesser extent since Duke basically runs the South.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What about Duke stood out to make it her ED choice? I'd clearly be thinking more seriously about applying to Duke if I were from NC now!

It really was a serendipitous combination sort of deal, DD loved the academic offerings, heavy focus on undergrads, balance between fun and rigorous academics, and the overall campus. And other small things, like when we visited the food was seriously the best we've had at a college visit without a close second. It really is her dream school so we let her ED and if she gets a fortunate acceptance, we're more than happy to pay for a Duke education.

Food from the “food court” type dining area on west campus right? At the “WU” (Broadhead center) Not the meal swipe dining hall on east campus.

[Anonymous]

I think 10% of the class at my kid's Big3 applied ED to Duke. Many are legacy, all are smart.

[Anonymous]

The Supreme Court decision has emboldened Whites and Asians to apply to great schools because their race now won’t hurt their admission chances. Also, kids are looking for strong academics, not wokeness gone wrong. That’s why Duke has a surge of ED and Yale doesn’t. Also, folks are tired of NE provincialism.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Decent success in football over the past few years.

This could actually help! Stanford saw an increase that aligned with their rise in football though they haven't had a major dip with the football team's recent struggles.
Basketball helped put Duke on the map nationally and did the same thing for Georgetown.

[Anonymous]

Here's my theory... For a long time the top ED school was Columbia by a wide margin. After their scandal and some other unfavorable aspects about Columbia coming to light, someone had to fill the void... and so far it's been Duke and UPenn. I bet Penn will also announce an increase in ED applicants too, probably not as large as Duke's though. I can't explain a 30% increase in ED applicants though, that's pretty incredible. Looks like lots of smart kids are fighting for a spot right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Decent success in football over the past few years.

This could actually help! Stanford saw an increase that aligned with their rise in football though they haven't had a major dip with the football team's recent struggles.
Basketball helped put Duke on the map nationally and did the same thing for Georgetown.

Stanford rose due to Silicon Valley, it was purely an economic reason. Perhaps people are seeing the South as the next big area of growth, led by Duke?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The Supreme Court decision has emboldened Whites and Asians to apply to great schools because their race now won’t hurt their admission chances. Also, kids are looking for strong academics, not wokeness gone wrong. That’s why Duke has a surge of ED and Yale doesn’t. Also, folks are tired of NE provincialism.

ED schools will likely see more of a boost than REA schools. That is a big difference between Duke and Yale.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Supreme Court decision has emboldened Whites and Asians to apply to great schools because their race now won’t hurt their admission chances. Also, kids are looking for strong academics, not wokeness gone wrong. That’s why Duke has a surge of ED and Yale doesn’t. Also, folks are tired of NE provincialism.

ED schools will likely see more of a boost than REA schools. That is a big difference between Duke and Yale.

Why? There's no specific reason for ED over REA, and historically REA has been a much more popular option due to the nonbinding nature.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Test Optional

This doesn't explain why Duke specifically received such a large spike in applicants, essentially all the top schools are test optional.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The Supreme Court decision has emboldened Whites and Asians to apply to great schools because their race now won’t hurt their admission chances. Also, kids are looking for strong academics, not wokeness gone wrong. That’s why Duke has a surge of ED and Yale doesn’t. Also, folks are tired of NE provincialism.

You’re going to get blasted for your comments, but your views make a lot of sense. More sense than climate change, which everyone has an opinion on, but nobody really seems to know what the hell is happening.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Supreme Court decision has emboldened Whites and Asians to apply to great schools because their race now won’t hurt their admission chances. Also, kids are looking for strong academics, not wokeness gone wrong. That’s why Duke has a surge of ED and Yale doesn’t. Also, folks are tired of NE provincialism.

ED schools will likely see more of a boost than REA schools. That is a big difference between Duke and Yale.

Why? There's no specific reason for ED over REA, and historically REA has been a much more popular option due to the nonbinding nature.

I would assume ED in general (not for PP's reason) will continue to grow in popularity because the standard for admission is perceived to be lower than for EA or RD. If you think your only chance of getting into a group of schools is ED, then having the optionality from REA is pointless