S/O: what’s the best place to move if the AMOC collapses?

[Anonymous]

Midwest/Great lakes & water supply

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Pennsylvania. Far enough south to avoid the freezing winters far enough North to avoid sweltering heat.

Great. I’m moving to Scranton.

[Anonymous]

Is there anywhere safe from some kind of natural disaster/weather event?

[Anonymous]

Are people actually thinking about this in anything other than a totally hypothetical "gee where would one go?" sense? I'm quite aware of climate change (and doing whatever is in our household's power to help slow our contributions to it), but it wouldn't ever cross my mind to actually pick up and move now in anticipation of the unpredictable consequences of an event we don't know when (or if) will happen. If things get so bad that Washington, D.C., is unlivable, I think whatever your contingency plans might be will probably prove insufficient, short of "we have a private island to move to with a bunker and a lifelong supply of food and water."

[Anonymous]

Anyplace that is good for living in this scenario can expect to be inundated with refugees from area hit hard by the changes.

[Anonymous]

I think Europe will be very hard hit because the moderate weather in Western Europe is due to the amoc and Gulf Stream plus the rising heat will make the Middle East utterly unlivable increasing northbound immigration. And they don’t have a ton of extra space.

In Us, I think Pa is actually a good suggestion as there is arablle land that can be converted to agriculture pretty easily when the U.S. bread basket collapses. I disagree with PP about cities — if you look historically, food delivery to cities has always been challenging.
Places like Minnesota may also be good but obviously very cold. Maybe Vermont? I think it’s a really open question about how much the attic freeze effect as the northern glaciers melt will balance out overall warming and where the happy medium location will be.

With the new models, it looks like this is realistically going to happen in the next 50 years, give or take 25. I’m 50 so not so important for me, but if I were 25 or 30, I’d be more worried. I already rejected moving back to my hometown because of drought/water issues that are more on the 25 year (give or take 15) time frame. That one is too close for comfort for me. I think my parents will be dead before it gets bad but I don’t know why my nieces and nephews are not getting out of there.

[Anonymous]

The whole Southern Hemisphere gets too hot and too dry so it is to be avoided.

Canada, North Central US and Europe get covered with ice between 5-10 years after the shutoff so all those places are to be avoided.

Coastal areas see a 1-meter increase in sea levels so all coastal areas are to be avoided.

What's left? Central Mexico, Higher elevation Communities in Northern South America, non-desertic places at higher elevation in Northern Africa, the Middle East and Asia. That's pretty much about it.

Now, AMOC has already lost between 10 and 50% of its strength and it isn't likely that we will be able to reverse that trend. At the contrary, the phenomenon is kind of feeding itself.

The more glaciers melt, the least salt water can make its way all the way up North, the more AMOC weakens and so on.

Some scientists say it will happen any time between 2025 and 300 years from now. Be prepared in case!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The whole Southern Hemisphere gets too hot and too dry so it is to be avoided.

Canada, North Central US and Europe get covered with ice between 5-10 years after the shutoff so all those places are to be avoided.

Coastal areas see a 1-meter increase in sea levels so all coastal areas are to be avoided.

What's left? Central Mexico, Higher elevation Communities in Northern South America, non-desertic places at higher elevation in Northern Africa, the Middle East and Asia. That's pretty much about it.

Now, AMOC has already lost between 10 and 50% of its strength and it isn't likely that we will be able to reverse that trend. At the contrary, the phenomenon is kind of feeding itself.

The more glaciers melt, the least salt water can make its way all the way up North, the more AMOC weakens and so on.

Some scientists say it will happen any time between 2025 and 300 years from now. Be prepared in case!

Why no mention of North America? In notice in every article on this it talks about Europe getting colder, sea levels rising etc but never says what will happen to the temperature in North America. Why is that?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The whole Southern Hemisphere gets too hot and too dry so it is to be avoided.

Canada, North Central US and Europe get covered with ice between 5-10 years after the shutoff so all those places are to be avoided.

Coastal areas see a 1-meter increase in sea levels so all coastal areas are to be avoided.

What's left? Central Mexico, Higher elevation Communities in Northern South America, non-desertic places at higher elevation in Northern Africa, the Middle East and Asia. That's pretty much about it.

Now, AMOC has already lost between 10 and 50% of its strength and it isn't likely that we will be able to reverse that trend. At the contrary, the phenomenon is kind of feeding itself.

The more glaciers melt, the least salt water can make its way all the way up North, the more AMOC weakens and so on.

Some scientists say it will happen any time between 2025 and 300 years from now. Be prepared in case!

Why no mention of North America? In notice in every article on this it talks about Europe getting colder, sea levels rising etc but never says what will happen to the temperature in North America. Why is that?

Because the changes will be minimal and around the edges so to speak.

2025 and 300 years from know is the same as saying we do not know what we are talking about. That is why people do not believe the science. I get it that this is what the data shows. But the statement is off.

[Anonymous]

If we all had a crystal ball LOL! There's no way to figure out the answer to this question. You can definitely rule out places that aren't going to do well but to figure out exactly where to go that is ideal? Oh come on! How could anyone know this? If it's that nice a spot, I'm sure everywhere will be moving there haha. So good luck with that.

I think the better question is pose is where to stay away from. The best chances of leveraging resources. The pros and cons that you're willing to sacrifice/enjoy for a specific location. You're not going to get the right place by any means but you might be able to focus on process of elimination of where you wouldn't want to be. That's about as good as you will get.

Let's face it - we are all doomed for the most part 95% of us unless we have the money/connections/luck to be able to get to very select places where we have a chance of actually surviving. It's not just about shelter with downfall of AMOC. It's about how to sustain survival aka food, having any enjoyment of life, culture and what do you do for a living if living conditions are that drastically impacted. How do you get around?

In my children's lifetimes, they will definitely have to grapple with this. I do have some faith that we'll work it out. Maybe we build up, or down, or find another planet or go into space but I do have faith that somehow, humans will survive. Maybe we don't have 3B people living but we'll have plenty. Whether you'll be happy and comfortable is another thing altogether but having enough funds to live comfortably will be the key. You think you need some money now, wait for 20 or 25 years - that will be nothing compared to today!