Buy and Hold is dead- 2 years of nothing- soon to be negative

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I’m looking at the wrong numbers but I just pulled Jan 21 to Jan 23 and it looks like it’s up over 7%. Did OP cherry pick a high month and a low month to get 0% return?

Anyway, if you’re looking short term you’re probably better off in bonds right now.

And anyone who expected 10% average returns over the long term was unrealistic. 5-7 is realistic.

mouse over the S&P 500 end of Q1 2021 ( oh wow cherry picker ) 3980, today 4025

I'm sure all these people "oh wait its only 2 years I hold for 15" will be happy 8 years in when they have averaged 4%. Mind you 4% in an after tax account is 3%- inflation is at 6%

[Anonymous]

Keep buying.

[Anonymous]

Buy and hold means for decades. Not 2 years.

[Anonymous]

lol 2 years..did you actually think that was a long time?

add 18 years to that and look back at your growth.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I’m looking at the wrong numbers but I just pulled Jan 21 to Jan 23 and it looks like it’s up over 7%. Did OP cherry pick a high month and a low month to get 0% return?

Anyway, if you’re looking short term you’re probably better off in bonds right now.

And anyone who expected 10% average returns over the long term was unrealistic. 5-7 is realistic.

mouse over the S&P 500 end of Q1 2021 ( oh wow cherry picker ) 3980, today 4025

I'm sure all these people "oh wait its only 2 years I hold for 15" will be happy 8 years in when they have averaged 4%. Mind you 4% in an after tax account is 3%- inflation is at 6%

Do you think inflation will be at 6% for 15 years?

You don't know a single thing about how the market perform..in fact, no one does. It could average 15% a year for 15 years for 5%. I'll take my chances.

How are you going to invest long term? variable iBonds?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I’m looking at the wrong numbers but I just pulled Jan 21 to Jan 23 and it looks like it’s up over 7%. Did OP cherry pick a high month and a low month to get 0% return?

Anyway, if you’re looking short term you’re probably better off in bonds right now.

And anyone who expected 10% average returns over the long term was unrealistic. 5-7 is realistic.

mouse over the S&P 500 end of Q1 2021 ( oh wow cherry picker ) 3980, today 4025

I'm sure all these people "oh wait its only 2 years I hold for 15" will be happy 8 years in when they have averaged 4%. Mind you 4% in an after tax account is 3%- inflation is at 6%

Do you think inflation will be at 6% for 15 years?

You don't know a single thing about how the market perform..in fact, no one does. It could average 15% a year for 15 years for 5%. I'll take my chances.

How are you going to invest long term? variable iBonds?

Its stocks still but more options as the path to actively increase rate of return. Look up selling covered calls.. you own the stock while actively pocketing premiums to gain rate of return. Is Apple up this past year? nope (-8%). Ive pocketed 14% selling CCs against my position. I still hold the stock but I'm not sitting back waiting for APPL 300. I've done it since the 1980s. 4% will become the norm in the markets. The market bubble we have been in most of the last 30 years is not sustainable. Bogle said "drastically" reduce expectations. Bogle forgot more about investing than practically anyone ever knew he was thinking 3-4% would be normal. After 5-10 years of 3-4% how will people feel if all they did was hold? Add in some will get cold feet and sell at the worst possible time it will be a whole different world than the 1990s to now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I’m looking at the wrong numbers but I just pulled Jan 21 to Jan 23 and it looks like it’s up over 7%. Did OP cherry pick a high month and a low month to get 0% return?

Anyway, if you’re looking short term you’re probably better off in bonds right now.

And anyone who expected 10% average returns over the long term was unrealistic. 5-7 is realistic.

mouse over the S&P 500 end of Q1 2021 ( oh wow cherry picker ) 3980, today 4025

I'm sure all these people "oh wait its only 2 years I hold for 15" will be happy 8 years in when they have averaged 4%. Mind you 4% in an after tax account is 3%- inflation is at 6%

Do you think inflation will be at 6% for 15 years?

You don't know a single thing about how the market perform..in fact, no one does. It could average 15% a year for 15 years for 5%. I'll take my chances.

How are you going to invest long term? variable iBonds?

Its stocks still but more options as the path to actively increase rate of return. Look up selling covered calls.. you own the stock while actively pocketing premiums to gain rate of return. Is Apple up this past year? nope (-8%). Ive pocketed 14% selling CCs against my position. I still hold the stock but I'm not sitting back waiting for APPL 300. I've done it since the 1980s. 4% will become the norm in the markets. The market bubble we have been in most of the last 30 years is not sustainable. Bogle said "drastically" reduce expectations. Bogle forgot more about investing than practically anyone ever knew he was thinking 3-4% would be normal. After 5-10 years of 3-4% how will people feel if all they did was hold? Add in some will get cold feet and sell at the worst possible time it will be a whole different world than the 1990s to now.

lol - have fun with that over the next 25 years.

4% will not be the norm, and has never been the norm, over a long term time period. People say this time it's different, but it never is. Sure the market could have below average returns for 5-7 years but that's not a long term view. There has been no period throughout history where a diversified portfolio earned 4% over 15+ years. We've had far worse financial conditions than today over the last 100 years. Stop letting fear cloud your view. Bogle didn't know, Buffett doesn't know...you know what? They all hold/held long term investments and will continue to do so.

[Anonymous]

Research the history of when the Fed has cut rates the first time in a tightening cycle. Every time the market dumps 10% plus.

Then it goes up later. Seriously, look at the history.

The fed cut will come in the next few months, be prepared.

[Anonymous]

My "hold" horizon is ten times yours so....

[Anonymous]

I plan to just earn a lot of money.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have a whole bunch of stocks that I bought years ago and are up over 400 percent since then as of today's close. Seems like buying and holding is working OK for me?

“Years ago” is key

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a whole bunch of stocks that I bought years ago and are up over 400 percent since then as of today's close. Seems like buying and holding is working OK for me?

“Years ago” is key

Yes, that’s how long you’re supposed to hold. Not just two.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Tell me some good news. I plan to retire in 8-10 years.

Here's some good news for you: 10-year treasuries are yielding 3.5%, and will become more valuable as interest rates fall.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I’m looking at the wrong numbers but I just pulled Jan 21 to Jan 23 and it looks like it’s up over 7%. Did OP cherry pick a high month and a low month to get 0% return?

Anyway, if you’re looking short term you’re probably better off in bonds right now.

And anyone who expected 10% average returns over the long term was unrealistic. 5-7 is realistic.

mouse over the S&P 500 end of Q1 2021 ( oh wow cherry picker ) 3980, today 4025

I'm sure all these people "oh wait its only 2 years I hold for 15" will be happy 8 years in when they have averaged 4%. Mind you 4% in an after tax account is 3%- inflation is at 6%

Do you think inflation will be at 6% for 15 years?

You don't know a single thing about how the market perform..in fact, no one does. It could average 15% a year for 15 years for 5%. I'll take my chances.

How are you going to invest long term? variable iBonds?

Its stocks still but more options as the path to actively increase rate of return. Look up selling covered calls.. you own the stock while actively pocketing premiums to gain rate of return. Is Apple up this past year? nope (-8%). Ive pocketed 14% selling CCs against my position. I still hold the stock but I'm not sitting back waiting for APPL 300. I've done it since the 1980s. 4% will become the norm in the markets. The market bubble we have been in most of the last 30 years is not sustainable. Bogle said "drastically" reduce expectations. Bogle forgot more about investing than practically anyone ever knew he was thinking 3-4% would be normal. After 5-10 years of 3-4% how will people feel if all they did was hold? Add in some will get cold feet and sell at the worst possible time it will be a whole different world than the 1990s to now.

lol - have fun with that over the next 25 years.

4% will not be the norm, and has never been the norm, over a long term time period. People say this time it's different, but it never is. Sure the market could have below average returns for 5-7 years but that's not a long term view. There has been no period throughout history where a diversified portfolio earned 4% over 15+ years. We've had far worse financial conditions than today over the last 100 years. Stop letting fear cloud your view. Bogle didn't know, Buffett doesn't know...you know what? They all hold/held long term investments and will continue to do so.

What is the norm? Do I keep buying or what?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I’m looking at the wrong numbers but I just pulled Jan 21 to Jan 23 and it looks like it’s up over 7%. Did OP cherry pick a high month and a low month to get 0% return?

Anyway, if you’re looking short term you’re probably better off in bonds right now.

And anyone who expected 10% average returns over the long term was unrealistic. 5-7 is realistic.

mouse over the S&P 500 end of Q1 2021 ( oh wow cherry picker ) 3980, today 4025

I'm sure all these people "oh wait its only 2 years I hold for 15" will be happy 8 years in when they have averaged 4%. Mind you 4% in an after tax account is 3%- inflation is at 6%

Do you think inflation will be at 6% for 15 years?

You don't know a single thing about how the market perform..in fact, no one does. It could average 15% a year for 15 years for 5%. I'll take my chances.

How are you going to invest long term? variable iBonds?

Its stocks still but more options as the path to actively increase rate of return. Look up selling covered calls.. you own the stock while actively pocketing premiums to gain rate of return. Is Apple up this past year? nope (-8%). Ive pocketed 14% selling CCs against my position. I still hold the stock but I'm not sitting back waiting for APPL 300. I've done it since the 1980s. 4% will become the norm in the markets. The market bubble we have been in most of the last 30 years is not sustainable. Bogle said "drastically" reduce expectations. Bogle forgot more about investing than practically anyone ever knew he was thinking 3-4% would be normal. After 5-10 years of 3-4% how will people feel if all they did was hold? Add in some will get cold feet and sell at the worst possible time it will be a whole different world than the 1990s to now.

lol - have fun with that over the next 25 years.

4% will not be the norm, and has never been the norm, over a long term time period. People say this time it's different, but it never is. Sure the market could have below average returns for 5-7 years but that's not a long term view. There has been no period throughout history where a diversified portfolio earned 4% over 15+ years. We've had far worse financial conditions than today over the last 100 years. Stop letting fear cloud your view. Bogle didn't know, Buffett doesn't know...you know what? They all hold/held long term investments and will continue to do so.

What is the norm? Do I keep buying or what?

'

No one knows but historically speaking it's more realistic to assume 6-10% than sub 4. Just put your head down and buy throughout the noise.