China Invades Taiwan - Nov 2024
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Anonymous
The Taiwanese would blow up TSMC foundries in scorched Earth policy if they faced existential crisis due to a Chinese invasion. TSMC only makes chips, they do not actually make high tech fab equipment needed to make those chips. Chip making equipment and many consumables needed to make chips actually comes from the west - Applied Materials and ASML. If China invaded, everyone in the world would feel pain after TSMC were destroyed, but China wouldn't come ahead. Where would China get equipment to build chip factories after they're destroyed and after they're cutoff from western chip equipment? The other thing is that the most extreme equipment for making the most cutting edge chips requires insanely specialized technical extertise to routinely maintain that only a handful of engineers know how to do in the world. If your chip making equipment is not kept to within highly tight spec windows, it is just dt a worthless but expensive tin can that cannot pump out good chips. Other consumables like cutting edge photo resists needed for the smallest chips also come from the west and no one knows they're formulation except for maybe 3 or 4 people on the planet since they are extreme trade secrets. China could try to figure it out or make new consumables after being cut off, but it'd take a long time and pose significant challenges. Look.at how badly Russia miscalculated. China will be making a bad miscalculation too if they think they can waltz into Taiwan and take over and control the world's chip supplies. It'll be destroyed and they'll be cutoff from everything needed to make chips. |
Anonymous
Yes, Intel and Mu are spending upwards of $100B to build the world's largest fab. TSMC is also building in the US. Intel has a long way to repair its reputation and to catch-up, but they replaced their leadership and have a top notch CEO now.. |
Anonymous
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No one knows what China is preparing and how it's calculating Western and Asian pushback. But we are heading for dangerous times, everyone agrees on that. |
Anonymous
| PP that will take a decade. Creating a modern fab is hard and expensive…plus it takes time, which we don’t have. We are talking 10-15 years to catch TSMC |
Anonymous
And what will china do if it gets blown up? |
Anonymous
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How far we have fallen since Trump had the world at peace and prosperity.
The DC swamp is the stupidest incompetent force on the planet. Trump appears to be the only person with the quickness, brains, work ethic and fight to fix this legacy DC catastrophe. |
Anonymous
China does not care about sending the world to the Stone Age. Several Fabs in China caught on fire. Normally this happens when there was too much graft and the corrupt official wants to not be “punished” China can’t get modern chips now. You can see how this will affect China in the future. In the Russian war… Ukraine is using precise munitions and Russia is using non-precise drones. China will not be able to use modern tech like AI/ML unless US Companies continue to be greedy. For the PP talking about Trump. Yes, Trump was right about China, however, every Trump-China policy has been continued by the Biden admin. Trump getting us out of the Obama free trade deal was beyond dumb. Tariffs are not how you control China IF they are still the biggest trading partner of our allies in Asia. Trump definitely was correct to stop trade with China for various reasons but there were better ways to accomplish our goals with our allies. |
Anonymous
I hope this is a joke. |
Anonymous
Better still, send the sons and daughters of democrats. Let them do the fighting. Then again, I guess that’s what you might’ve meant when you said “drones”. |
Anonymous
Kind of. Chip production and and circuit boards go hand in hand; and printing/producing the boards got all but eliminated by Obama due to epa restrictions. Which, actually- may have been a good thing. Board production shipped all to Europe and Asia as Americans figured out how to print boards that met epa standards. So it set the US back 10 years but now there are companies who can manufacture high end boards that are not really bad for the environment. So if we have chips and boards here that are not high pollutants we are in a good spot. |
Anonymous
Except the entire rest of the world doesn’t care. Those boards only matter *here*. It’s a sunk cost fallacy. |
Anonymous
Thank you for providing the laugh of the day. The day is brighter because of people like you. |
Anonymous
Better suited to fight China are Trump's sons and Bobert et al who hug guns and experience ecstasy. |
Anonymous
What countries in the world today and even in 10 years can mount an invasion with a sizeable force of another country over a large open body of water? Answer -- United States. There is no other country --- not even China that has the air lift, ability to control skies, boat lift, and ability to control the seas. And the ability to resupply for months. China can't do it. To mix things up it is a bridge too far. As the fleet came across it would be hit by air (planes, cruise, and drones), surface forces, and submarines. The landing would be contested. Resupply would be painful. Also on day 1 -- the entire Chinese navy except patrol boats would be sunk. They could get air control for a time but by week 2 the US would control the skies and then no boats or planes would make it. Nuclear? Can China do anything? Air and Sea 90% chance we could contain. Could their land based work? Maybe. But blow up your biggest customer on which your entire economy depends? Maybe but not likely because our response would work. If you invented a perfect set of conditions where they could take it out in 2-3 days then maybe. But that is not a real. They will not move. |
Anonymous
Getting us out of that free trade deal was the worst move that could have been made. Never let your ideals get int he way of the reality on the ground. |