Short Waitlists August data is up

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Only three WL offers at BASIS after June 1, and only 53 total….

That’s the lowest they’ve ever gone on the waitlist.

It was a very competitive year to get into Walls and private High Schools this year.
As more kids stick for the high school, it trickles down as they flex to the cap for the entire school - not just 5th grade.

I agree that the WL #s for BASIS can't be viewed in a vacuum without regard to the # of seats, but your analysis of the data is flawed. The 5th grade is the same size it has been for 4 of the last 5 years; it was not smaller than normal this year. Their ratio of seats to WL, offers to WL and every other measure is directionally favorable.

I am shocked that Cooper didn't siphon off more kids from BASIS. My hope is that results in more kids who know what they are in for and are more likely to stick it out. My thesis is that more kids had options with the Latin II seats being offered and still chose BASIS, not settled for it because it was better than the ES with behavioral issues and no MS/HS feeder path. Hopefully this translates to more kids staying (and fewer parents who will populate DCUM for several years because they were simply shocked that BASIS is a small building downtown that is a test heavy, rigorous academic environment that cares much more about science and English than recess or a football team.)

We ranked Cooper lower than BASIS because the swing space for Cooper was no better than BASIS and we were unsure where the permanent location would be. Had we known that Cooper would be at the former Kirov site we would have ranked it above BASIS. We are happy with BASIS thus far but I wouldn’t be surprised if more families rank Cooper above BASIS in the years to come.

[Anonymous]

A lot WOTP schools are clearing their list, it is a good time for EOTP parents to switch schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Lafayette pretty much cleared their 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th grade waiting lists. We need to end feeder access for deal and wilson, or they are going to be huge and majority OOB

As I read the numbers, they only “pretty much cleared” their fifth grade list. Definitely more movement than past years, but 12 offers for a waitlist of 70 (second grade) is not clearing the list. I’m curious how many slots they filled (versus offers made).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It seems people took themselves off the waitlists at Latin I and Cooper since our number at both campuses dropped by much more than the number of offers made. It’s also interesting that the Cooper campus and BASIS made about the same number of waitlist offers.
The MV numbers don’t surprise me. Without a future DCI guarantee, if a family has a bad year there’s not much incentive to stick it out. And lots of families had a bad year there.

I don't know that you can extrapolate any meaning from the real numbers. Trends take a few years to settle out. Even if you wanted to draw conclusions you'd need to look at how many seats were being filled as a baseline. BASIS had 135 5th graders, Cooper 42.

I would suggest to you that there is no meaningful data in the first few years for Cooper. The 5th grade class is a partial class (growing be design next year), and there was a huge unknown in terms of final location and facilities (that appears to be close to settled). It would be unfair to draw conclusions about Cooper's success or failure or the demand for it based on a one or two year data set.

If Cooper closes on the Kirov site, what does that mean for next year's lottery cycle? Does it change their plans for how many seats to offer?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It seems people took themselves off the waitlists at Latin I and Cooper since our number at both campuses dropped by much more than the number of offers made. It’s also interesting that the Cooper campus and BASIS made about the same number of waitlist offers.
The MV numbers don’t surprise me. Without a future DCI guarantee, if a family has a bad year there’s not much incentive to stick it out. And lots of families had a bad year there.

I don't know that you can extrapolate any meaning from the real numbers. Trends take a few years to settle out. Even if you wanted to draw conclusions you'd need to look at how many seats were being filled as a baseline. BASIS had 135 5th graders, Cooper 42.

I would suggest to you that there is no meaningful data in the first few years for Cooper. The 5th grade class is a partial class (growing be design next year), and there was a huge unknown in terms of final location and facilities (that appears to be close to settled). It would be unfair to draw conclusions about Cooper's success or failure or the demand for it based on a one or two year data set.

If Cooper closes on the Kirov site, what does that mean for next year's lottery cycle? Does it change their plans for how many seats to offer?

It should not. First off, closing on the site and occupying it are two very different things. They will not be in that space next year. (I would think for at least two more years, but you asked bout next year). Second, they had a plan for how many kids in each grade and in total at the school and that's what the DCPCSB approved. Not clear to me why this would change anything.

[Anonymous]

Where is the Kirov site?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Only three WL offers at BASIS after June 1, and only 53 total….

That’s the lowest they’ve ever gone on the waitlist.

It was a very competitive year to get into Walls and private High Schools this year.
As more kids stick for the high school, it trickles down as they flex to the cap for the entire school - not just 5th grade.

I agree that the WL #s for BASIS can't be viewed in a vacuum without regard to the # of seats, but your analysis of the data is flawed. The 5th grade is the same size it has been for 4 of the last 5 years; it was not smaller than normal this year. Their ratio of seats to WL, offers to WL and every other measure is directionally favorable.

I am shocked that Cooper didn't siphon off more kids from BASIS. My hope is that results in more kids who know what they are in for and are more likely to stick it out. My thesis is that more kids had options with the Latin II seats being offered and still chose BASIS, not settled for it because it was better than the ES with behavioral issues and no MS/HS feeder path. Hopefully this translates to more kids staying (and fewer parents who will populate DCUM for several years because they were simply shocked that BASIS is a small building downtown that is a test heavy, rigorous academic environment that cares much more about science and English than recess or a football team.)

We ranked Cooper lower than BASIS because the swing space for Cooper was no better than BASIS and we were unsure where the permanent location would be. Had we known that Cooper would be at the former Kirov site we would have ranked it above BASIS. We are happy with BASIS thus far but I wouldn’t be surprised if more families rank Cooper above BASIS in the years to come.

I was actually thinking about the people who declined a spot at Cooper due to facilities and the unknown permanent location the day before the Kirov announcement came out - I feel bad for them.

Your point about people having ranked BASIS higher because of facilities issues is a valid one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Only three WL offers at BASIS after June 1, and only 53 total….

That’s the lowest they’ve ever gone on the waitlist.

It was a very competitive year to get into Walls and private High Schools this year.
As more kids stick for the high school, it trickles down as they flex to the cap for the entire school - not just 5th grade.

I agree that the WL #s for BASIS can't be viewed in a vacuum without regard to the # of seats, but your analysis of the data is flawed. The 5th grade is the same size it has been for 4 of the last 5 years; it was not smaller than normal this year. Their ratio of seats to WL, offers to WL and every other measure is directionally favorable.

I am shocked that Cooper didn't siphon off more kids from BASIS. My hope is that results in more kids who know what they are in for and are more likely to stick it out. My thesis is that more kids had options with the Latin II seats being offered and still chose BASIS, not settled for it because it was better than the ES with behavioral issues and no MS/HS feeder path. Hopefully this translates to more kids staying (and fewer parents who will populate DCUM for several years because they were simply shocked that BASIS is a small building downtown that is a test heavy, rigorous academic environment that cares much more about science and English than recess or a football team.)

We ranked Cooper lower than BASIS because the swing space for Cooper was no better than BASIS and we were unsure where the permanent location would be. Had we known that Cooper would be at the former Kirov site we would have ranked it above BASIS. We are happy with BASIS thus far but I wouldn’t be surprised if more families rank Cooper above BASIS in the years to come.

I was actually thinking about the people who declined a spot at Cooper due to facilities and the unknown permanent location the day before the Kirov announcement came out - I feel bad for them.

Your point about people having ranked BASIS higher because of facilities issues is a valid one.

I dunno, I've seen so many real estate deals fall apart at the last second....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Only three WL offers at BASIS after June 1, and only 53 total….

That’s the lowest they’ve ever gone on the waitlist.

It was a very competitive year to get into Walls and private High Schools this year.
As more kids stick for the high school, it trickles down as they flex to the cap for the entire school - not just 5th grade.

I agree that the WL #s for BASIS can't be viewed in a vacuum without regard to the # of seats, but your analysis of the data is flawed. The 5th grade is the same size it has been for 4 of the last 5 years; it was not smaller than normal this year. Their ratio of seats to WL, offers to WL and every other measure is directionally favorable.

I am shocked that Cooper didn't siphon off more kids from BASIS. My hope is that results in more kids who know what they are in for and are more likely to stick it out. My thesis is that more kids had options with the Latin II seats being offered and still chose BASIS, not settled for it because it was better than the ES with behavioral issues and no MS/HS feeder path. Hopefully this translates to more kids staying (and fewer parents who will populate DCUM for several years because they were simply shocked that BASIS is a small building downtown that is a test heavy, rigorous academic environment that cares much more about science and English than recess or a football team.)

We ranked Cooper lower than BASIS because the swing space for Cooper was no better than BASIS and we were unsure where the permanent location would be. Had we known that Cooper would be at the former Kirov site we would have ranked it above BASIS. We are happy with BASIS thus far but I wouldn’t be surprised if more families rank Cooper above BASIS in the years to come.

I was actually thinking about the people who declined a spot at Cooper due to facilities and the unknown permanent location the day before the Kirov announcement came out - I feel bad for them.

Your point about people having ranked BASIS higher because of facilities issues is a valid one.

Don’t feel bad for us. We knew about the Kirov site and still declined a spot for 6th grade at Cooper this summer. We are happy to stay at BASIS.

There are many reasons other than facilities that people think about when making school decisions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

I continue to be stunned by the waitlist movement at both MV campuses.

Looks like DCI made a bunch of non-feeder Spanish and Chinese offers, not so many for French.

What else?

MV waitlist did not have a lot of movement this year - so different from last year! But there seems to have been a lot of movement last year overall. Covid changed everything, IMO.

Not all siblings got into MV Calle Ocho for PK3 this year!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

I continue to be stunned by the waitlist movement at both MV campuses.

Looks like DCI made a bunch of non-feeder Spanish and Chinese offers, not so many for French.

What else?

MV waitlist did not have a lot of movement this year - so different from last year! But there seems to have been a lot of movement last year overall. Covid changed everything, IMO.

Not all siblings got into MV Calle Ocho for PK3 this year!

Are you talking about just PK3?

When you're looking at the Mundo waitlists, don't forget to note the number of seats offered. Cook offered 90 seats for K this year, far more than they have offered in the past. Why?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Only three WL offers at BASIS after June 1, and only 53 total….

That’s the lowest they’ve ever gone on the waitlist.

It was a very competitive year to get into Walls and private High Schools this year.
As more kids stick for the high school, it trickles down as they flex to the cap for the entire school - not just 5th grade.

I agree that the WL #s for BASIS can't be viewed in a vacuum without regard to the # of seats, but your analysis of the data is flawed. The 5th grade is the same size it has been for 4 of the last 5 years; it was not smaller than normal this year. Their ratio of seats to WL, offers to WL and every other measure is directionally favorable.

I am shocked that Cooper didn't siphon off more kids from BASIS. My hope is that results in more kids who know what they are in for and are more likely to stick it out. My thesis is that more kids had options with the Latin II seats being offered and still chose BASIS, not settled for it because it was better than the ES with behavioral issues and no MS/HS feeder path. Hopefully this translates to more kids staying (and fewer parents who will populate DCUM for several years because they were simply shocked that BASIS is a small building downtown that is a test heavy, rigorous academic environment that cares much more about science and English than recess or a football team.)

We ranked Cooper lower than BASIS because the swing space for Cooper was no better than BASIS and we were unsure where the permanent location would be. Had we known that Cooper would be at the former Kirov site we would have ranked it above BASIS. We are happy with BASIS thus far but I wouldn’t be surprised if more families rank Cooper above BASIS in the years to come.

I was actually thinking about the people who declined a spot at Cooper due to facilities and the unknown permanent location the day before the Kirov announcement came out - I feel bad for them.

Your point about people having ranked BASIS higher because of facilities issues is a valid one.

I dunno, I've seen so many real estate deals fall apart at the last second....

Current BASIS 5th graders who become unhappy with the school can apply to Cooper for 6th…. (There will be at another 42 seats.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Only three WL offers at BASIS after June 1, and only 53 total….

That’s the lowest they’ve ever gone on the waitlist.

It was a very competitive year to get into Walls and private High Schools this year.
As more kids stick for the high school, it trickles down as they flex to the cap for the entire school - not just 5th grade.

I agree that the WL #s for BASIS can't be viewed in a vacuum without regard to the # of seats, but your analysis of the data is flawed. The 5th grade is the same size it has been for 4 of the last 5 years; it was not smaller than normal this year. Their ratio of seats to WL, offers to WL and every other measure is directionally favorable.

I am shocked that Cooper didn't siphon off more kids from BASIS. My hope is that results in more kids who know what they are in for and are more likely to stick it out. My thesis is that more kids had options with the Latin II seats being offered and still chose BASIS, not settled for it because it was better than the ES with behavioral issues and no MS/HS feeder path. Hopefully this translates to more kids staying (and fewer parents who will populate DCUM for several years because they were simply shocked that BASIS is a small building downtown that is a test heavy, rigorous academic environment that cares much more about science and English than recess or a football team.)

We ranked Cooper lower than BASIS because the swing space for Cooper was no better than BASIS and we were unsure where the permanent location would be. Had we known that Cooper would be at the former Kirov site we would have ranked it above BASIS. We are happy with BASIS thus far but I wouldn’t be surprised if more families rank Cooper above BASIS in the years to come.

I was actually thinking about the people who declined a spot at Cooper due to facilities and the unknown permanent location the day before the Kirov announcement came out - I feel bad for them.

Your point about people having ranked BASIS higher because of facilities issues is a valid one.

I dunno, I've seen so many real estate deals fall apart at the last second....

Current BASIS 5th graders who become unhappy with the school can apply to Cooper for 6th…. (There will be at another 42 seats.)

Do you have the enrollment matrix? How many seats for 5th will be offered next year?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A lot WOTP schools are clearing their list, it is a good time for EOTP parents to switch schools.

Unless we actually *like* our schools and don't think the commute is worth it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Only three WL offers at BASIS after June 1, and only 53 total….

That’s the lowest they’ve ever gone on the waitlist.

It was a very competitive year to get into Walls and private High Schools this year.
As more kids stick for the high school, it trickles down as they flex to the cap for the entire school - not just 5th grade.

I agree that the WL #s for BASIS can't be viewed in a vacuum without regard to the # of seats, but your analysis of the data is flawed. The 5th grade is the same size it has been for 4 of the last 5 years; it was not smaller than normal this year. Their ratio of seats to WL, offers to WL and every other measure is directionally favorable.

I am shocked that Cooper didn't siphon off more kids from BASIS. My hope is that results in more kids who know what they are in for and are more likely to stick it out. My thesis is that more kids had options with the Latin II seats being offered and still chose BASIS, not settled for it because it was better than the ES with behavioral issues and no MS/HS feeder path. Hopefully this translates to more kids staying (and fewer parents who will populate DCUM for several years because they were simply shocked that BASIS is a small building downtown that is a test heavy, rigorous academic environment that cares much more about science and English than recess or a football team.)

We ranked Cooper lower than BASIS because the swing space for Cooper was no better than BASIS and we were unsure where the permanent location would be. Had we known that Cooper would be at the former Kirov site we would have ranked it above BASIS. We are happy with BASIS thus far but I wouldn’t be surprised if more families rank Cooper above BASIS in the years to come.

I was actually thinking about the people who declined a spot at Cooper due to facilities and the unknown permanent location the day before the Kirov announcement came out - I feel bad for them.

Your point about people having ranked BASIS higher because of facilities issues is a valid one.

Don’t feel bad for us. We knew about the Kirov site and still declined a spot for 6th grade at Cooper this summer. We are happy to stay at BASIS.

There are many reasons other than facilities that people think about when making school decisions.

I'd actually be surprised to see any BASIS 6th grade families switching from BASIS to Latin Cooper. Every 6th grade family we know at BASIS stayed from 5th to 6th. The pool of 6th graders was mostly rising DCPS students.