They found 102 uncounted provisional ballots in MoCo

[Anonymous]

Here is my take. Blair has four potential chances of pulling this out (although it’s out of his and everyone else’s hands by now) Each are highly unlikely, but together they at least add up to a plausible chance.

1. The remaining ballots favor him and do so overwhelmingly. Those provisionals come from one Blair-friendly district and one Elrich-friendly district. Provisionals have skewed Blair but not by the 70 or so percent he would need to close the gap. However, those are averages, and there is absolutely no guarantee that this batch is going to be perfectly average. Could Blair win all 102 votes? Not likely but just as possible as any other outcome. Batch by batch it’s more of a roll of the dice than a law of averages.

2. The audit completes with another uncounted batch of votes. Remember all the people saying that their votes had not been counted? Some of this was dismissed as lag time between the state BOE updating the status, but who knows. If there are another couple hundred votes out there, Blair could take it.

3. The new batch lowers Elrich’s lead by enough that a recount could flip it. At this point it’s purely by chance, since finding errors in countywide ballot totals does not skew one way or another. But a recount has a much better possibility at flipping a dozen votes than three dozen votes.

4. Way out there possibility, but the wild card of it going to a re-vote. I think I read somewhere that if an election came down to an actual tie or otherwise un-call-able, the state could issue a re-vote. Blair would certainly win this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wait. Isn't the fact that they found these provisional ballots a good thing? Question, It means they're doing what they're supposed to be doing

They are supposed to be able to keep track of things. Saying the system worked to catch these things is their excuse for saying we screwed up but yay for us we found them.

I’m not sure what the conspiracy theory is here. Is it that if Elrich wins its because mail votes are fraudulent, and so therefore it is bad that we found more votes that could potentially favor Blair?

The fact that people are even making this suggestion just proves to me that these Republicans switched to democrats to get Blair (a Republican?) elected. Will mail in vote fraud is a Republican talking point and since both candidates are (supposedly) democrats, I’m surprised anyone would be making that claim.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wait. Isn't the fact that they found these provisional ballots a good thing? Question, It means they're doing what they're supposed to be doing

They are supposed to be able to keep track of things. Saying the system worked to catch these things is their excuse for saying we screwed up but yay for us we found them.

I’m not sure what the conspiracy theory is here. Is it that if Elrich wins its because mail votes are fraudulent, and so therefore it is bad that we found more votes that could potentially favor Blair?

The fact that people are even making this suggestion just proves to me that these Republicans switched to democrats to get Blair (a Republican?) elected. Will mail in vote fraud is a Republican talking point and since both candidates are (supposedly) democrats, I’m surprised anyone would be making that claim.

This absolutely. I was just about to post something like that.
It 's typical republican playbook trick

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, some questions for you:

1. Do you honestly think these ballots will change the outcome?
2. If so, do you think the Board of Elections has gone rogue to try to get Blair elected?
3. If these ballots won't change the outcome, then how does this incident figure into your narrative of an invalid election?

You are making a lot of assumptions about me. Understandably, I guess. I have worked for government for almost 40 years and have become gravely concerned with how little anyone trusts government or governmental processes like this. I wasn't born here, and it's reminiscent of the country I grew up in, which has had periods of true instability, and one coup. It very much reminds me of that.

1. No, not as it stands. I think this will close the gap to about 20, based on where the uncounted votes are coming from. However, they are still going through the audit process today. I don't know if more uncounted ballots will be found or not.
2. Of course they didn't go rogue. I work for government. I know how hard employees work to do the right thing. Most government workers are true public servants, regardless of what the public thinks. We make mistakes. Only occasionally are people corrupt.
3. See my prior comments. Many people already think this election is stolen. This will further exacerbate those concerns.

Yeah um, you need to have put more detail in your OP, because as it stands right now it looks like you are encouraging people to disbelieve the outcome.

Get back to work, btw.

lol, I'm on vacation.

But at 5:30am, that's as much detail as I can do. I just wanted to post the link for people to read, and know that Jeff doesn't allow just links.

Nobody is forcing you to.post on DCUM at 5:30 am. This was lazy AF and you know it. SMH

Better lazy than unhappy! Sending you good vibes, PP.

[Anonymous]

Pretty unlikely that the 102 ballots could skew enough for Blair to overtake lead. His only chance is if they find more ballots.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wait. Isn't the fact that they found these provisional ballots a good thing? Question, It means they're doing what they're supposed to be doing

They are supposed to be able to keep track of things. Saying the system worked to catch these things is their excuse for saying we screwed up but yay for us we found them.

I’m not sure what the conspiracy theory is here. Is it that if Elrich wins its because mail votes are fraudulent, and so therefore it is bad that we found more votes that could potentially favor Blair?

The only conspiracy is incompetence, which has plagued this vote count from beginning to end.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wait. Isn't the fact that they found these provisional ballots a good thing? Question, It means they're doing what they're supposed to be doing

That was my reaction.

[Anonymous]

I predicted exactly this scenario last week.

I knew Marc would come up with just enough votes to squeak by. He just needed to wait until they had a firmer number before “finding” the last hundred ballots.

Never doubted him, or his machine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I predicted exactly this scenario last week.

I knew Marc would come up with just enough votes to squeak by. He just needed to wait until they had a firmer number before “finding” the last hundred ballots.

Never doubted him, or his machine.

Then why does everyone think this last hundred ballots will favor Blair?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I predicted exactly this scenario last week.

I knew Marc would come up with just enough votes to squeak by. He just needed to wait until they had a firmer number before “finding” the last hundred ballots.

Never doubted him, or his machine.

Alternatively, someone "lost" just enough ballots for Elrich to win.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I predicted exactly this scenario last week.

I knew Marc would come up with just enough votes to squeak by. He just needed to wait until they had a firmer number before “finding” the last hundred ballots.

Never doubted him, or his machine.

He was already leading, up by 42.

[Anonymous]

Now Elrich is up by 35

[Anonymous]

Doesn't sound like a huge deal, OP, but I am generally in favor of showing up in person to vote. It prevents a host of problems.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Doesn't sound like a huge deal, OP, but I am generally in favor of showing up in person to vote. It prevents a host of problems.

People who showed up in person to vote are also responsible for provisional ballots.

[Anonymous]

Elrich still leads by 35