Reply to They found 102 uncounted provisional ballots in MoCo

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[quote=Anonymous]Here is my take. Blair has four potential chances of pulling this out (although it’s out of his and everyone else’s hands by now) Each are highly unlikely, but together they at least add up to a plausible chance.

1. The remaining ballots favor him and do so overwhelmingly. Those provisionals come from one Blair-friendly district and one Elrich-friendly district. Provisionals have skewed Blair but not by the 70 or so percent he would need to close the gap. However, those are averages, and there is absolutely no guarantee that this batch is going to be perfectly average.  Could Blair win all 102 votes? Not likely but just as possible as any other outcome. Batch by batch it’s more of a roll of the dice than a law of averages.

2. The audit completes with another uncounted batch of votes. Remember all the people saying that their votes had not been counted? Some of this was dismissed as lag time between the state BOE updating the status, but who knows. If there are another couple hundred votes out there, Blair could take it.

3. The new batch lowers Elrich’s lead by enough that a recount could flip it. At this point it’s purely by chance, since finding errors in countywide ballot totals does not skew one way or another. But a recount has a much better possibility at flipping a dozen votes than three dozen votes.

4. Way out there possibility, but the wild card of it going to a re-vote. I think I read somewhere that if an election came down to an actual tie or otherwise un-call-able, the state could issue a re-vote. Blair would certainly win this. [/quote]

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