will interest dropped next year or 2024?

[Anonymous]

Jan 2024 is time to buy. Full clarity on home prices, mortgage rates and property taxes as well as flood insurance rates if a beach house.

I would not be shocked if Chevy Chase MD type magical areas get whacked in property tax increase.

Some beach homes soaked in flood insurance hikes.

Lots of variables

[Anonymous]

The Twelfth of Never

[Anonymous]

Read in the Financial Times the other day that investors are betting rates soften in 2023/2024 timeframe. I havent looked myself, but bond yield curves also suggesting this

[Anonymous]

Fed has said they think they'll need to bring rates at or above 3%, which would take until early 2023 at least. Of course, they may not need to do this if inflationary pressures reduce, such as China easing supply chain, the Ukraine conflict settling down, or oil production moving up. But I think a good bet is that we see at least one more significant raise in rate, likely 2-3, and they'll start to ease in late 2023.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:When will the interest rates drop back to near 0%?

Will it be in 2023 or 2024? The recession will start either in 2022 or 2023, so will they start lowing rates when it hits?

Hmmm…let’s see…given that they were at a 40 year low, I’d say try around 2060.

People! Interest rates were at 18% under Reagan! An 8% mortgage in ‘99 was low. Rates are trending up and housing will continue to be in short supply. Don’t overthink this!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:you have no idea when "the recession will start". some say we're already in it, some say it may not happen. It's not like recessions have a start and stop date on them.

Narrator: [Recessions actually *do* have start and stop dates*]

[Anonymous]

A long time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
We are *just* starting an economic dip, as indicators are starting to note a decrease this month and last month in consumer spending on services (not that much on goods yet). We are not yet in a recession. 2023 will be the year of the recession.

I do not see the Fed lowering their interest rates until 2024. It will increase it 3/4 point in July, and that will be followed by several other increases.

If you're borrowing money, buy your house NOW.
If you don't need to borrow, you can wait.

If you and I know that the Fed will raise rates .75% in July (and likely more .5% raises beyond that), don’t the markets also know this? Wouldn’t the increases already be priced into rates offered today? My understanding is that rates shot up last week because the extra .25% rate from the Fed was unexpected.

Just like for the stock market, there are psychological overreactions. There is a market difference between what the Fed *will probably* do, and what it *actually does*, even if it purposefully makes noises to warn where it's going, to avoid such overreactions. This jump in mortgage rates was not predicted by analysts, despite the Fed clearly indicating that they were going to increase interest rates aggressively, hence the jump because some people were taken by surprise.

I think now mortgage rates will rise much more slowly, because now everybody know the Fed is aggressive on interest rates.

The rate increase was not predicted by analysts because J. Powell himself had said at the prior meeting that anything more than 50bp was "off the table".