will interest dropped next year or 2024?

[Anonymous]

When will the interest rates drop back to near 0%?

Will it be in 2023 or 2024? The recession will start either in 2022 or 2023, so will they start lowing rates when it hits?

[Anonymous]

Hold up!
Let me check my crystal ball…

[Anonymous]

you have no idea when "the recession will start". some say we're already in it, some say it may not happen. It's not like recessions have a start and stop date on them.

[Anonymous]

2030

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:you have no idea when "the recession will start". some say we're already in it, some say it may not happen. It's not like recessions have a start and stop date on them.

if we have another negative GDP we will be officially in a recession

[Anonymous]

Economists have accurately predicted 11 of the last 3 recessions.

[Anonymous]

We are *just* starting an economic dip, as indicators are starting to note a decrease this month and last month in consumer spending on services (not that much on goods yet). We are not yet in a recession. 2023 will be the year of the recession.

I do not see the Fed lowering their interest rates until 2024. It will increase it 3/4 point in July, and that will be followed by several other increases.

If you're borrowing money, buy your house NOW.
If you don't need to borrow, you can wait.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:you have no idea when "the recession will start". some say we're already in it, some say it may not happen. It's not like recessions have a start and stop date on them.

if we have another negative GDP we will be officially in a recession

Two negative quarters is a guideline, but it isn't actually the official measure. There is a board that decides whether the bulk of the economic data supports the concept of a recession. There are some that think that GDI is a better measure at times than GDP, and that was positive in Q1. The Atlanta Fed GDP now for Q2 is currently 0.0. If the first two quarters are -1.5 and, say, -0.2, that doesn't guarantee that a recession is called.

This is all clearly just an academic exercise, though.

[Anonymous]

Right now the market is pricing in peak rates in Dec 2022

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
We are *just* starting an economic dip, as indicators are starting to note a decrease this month and last month in consumer spending on services (not that much on goods yet). We are not yet in a recession. 2023 will be the year of the recession.

I do not see the Fed lowering their interest rates until 2024. It will increase it 3/4 point in July, and that will be followed by several other increases.

If you're borrowing money, buy your house NOW.
If you don't need to borrow, you can wait.

If you and I know that the Fed will raise rates .75% in July (and likely more .5% raises beyond that), don’t the markets also know this? Wouldn’t the increases already be priced into rates offered today? My understanding is that rates shot up last week because the extra .25% rate from the Fed was unexpected.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
We are *just* starting an economic dip, as indicators are starting to note a decrease this month and last month in consumer spending on services (not that much on goods yet). We are not yet in a recession. 2023 will be the year of the recession.

I do not see the Fed lowering their interest rates until 2024. It will increase it 3/4 point in July, and that will be followed by several other increases.

If you're borrowing money, buy your house NOW.
If you don't need to borrow, you can wait.

If you and I know that the Fed will raise rates .75% in July (and likely more .5% raises beyond that), don’t the markets also know this? Wouldn’t the increases already be priced into rates offered today? My understanding is that rates shot up last week because the extra .25% rate from the Fed was unexpected.

Just like for the stock market, there are psychological overreactions. There is a market difference between what the Fed *will probably* do, and what it *actually does*, even if it purposefully makes noises to warn where it's going, to avoid such overreactions. This jump in mortgage rates was not predicted by analysts, despite the Fed clearly indicating that they were going to increase interest rates aggressively, hence the jump because some people were taken by surprise.

I think now mortgage rates will rise much more slowly, because now everybody know the Fed is aggressive on interest rates.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:When will the interest rates drop back to near 0%?

Will it be in 2023 or 2024? The recession will start either in 2022 or 2023, so will they start lowing rates when it hits?

Never near zero.

Fed will continue raising ratings, probably in .75 and 1% increments until inflation is halted. We are way past full employment so they can really squeeze hard, and boomers retiring meaning unemployment won’t shoot up. I can imagine rates hitting 6-8% before they are done.

Then with a recession, they can cut down to 5 to juice things back up

[Anonymous]

Back to near zero? I wouldn’t count in that ever happening again.

[Anonymous]

8 by end of year.

[Anonymous]

8-10 years. Buckle up.