Post your local DC election predictions here!

[Anonymous]

Meh. I have voted for Mendo at least twice and I’m voting for Erin Palmer. So are all of friends. If Vince Gray had challenged him, Gray would have won handily. I think it’s going to be close. The tacit misogyny around the race is pissing women off.

[Anonymous]

Nothing improves regardless the result. Our local leaders are all visionless failures.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Meh. I have voted for Mendo at least twice and I’m voting for Erin Palmer. So are all of friends. If Vince Gray had challenged him, Gray would have won handily. I think it’s going to be close. The tacit misogyny around the race is pissing women off.

Same. Voted for mendo last time. Voting for Erin this time.

[Anonymous]

Bowser wins but with only about 50% of the vote. I’d guess Bowser 50, R White 30, T White 20.

I’m voting for Palmer but think Mendo pulls it out (but that it will be closer than people think). 55/45?

No idea about Ward 3 but really worry it will be Goulet and am trying to choose strategically between Duncan and Frumin to prevent that from happening.

Can’t predict at-large, ward 5, or ward 1. Voting for Gore in at-large, so I hope she pulls it out. But I suspect the challengers will fracture the opposition and Bonds will hold on.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Meh. I have voted for Mendo at least twice and I’m voting for Erin Palmer. So are all of friends. If Vince Gray had challenged him, Gray would have won handily. I think it’s going to be close. The tacit misogyny around the race is pissing women off.

I've voted for Mendelson in every election since he was first elected in 1998, but not this time. His dealings with the Old Hardy School were the last straw for me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Bowser was polling at 47% in the one poll I saw (from WaPo): https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/02/17/dc-poll-bowser-white-election/

I’m also thinking Palmer may sneak up on Mendo just as Nadeau snuck up on Graham. I don’t think she’ll beat him but I think she’ll be more competitive than folks suspect.

Bowser is polling low but will do much better at the ballot. That’s what incumbency means. Anyone on the fence about her (and I’m sure there are many) will more likely than not pull the lever for her in the end. She’s certainly going to lose Wards 7 and 8. But Robert White had run such a bad campaign that he doesn’t look promising to significantly cut into her vote share in the rest the city.

Graham was under investigation for corruption at the time Nadeau beat him. The main issue for voters at the time was whether they would re-elect a corrupt politician. No comparison to Mendelson. His crime seems to be that he doesn’t govern for social media engagement. Twitter is not real life, even in hyper political DC. Nadeau also only eon with only 6,600 votes against 4,600 votes. Mendelson is in a city-wide race. There is absolutely no comparison here. There isn’t even a major animating purpose to Palmer’s campaign other than she’s younger and more attuned to social media.

The mayor race might be a little closer due to having 3 candidates and general dissatisfaction with Bowser. But Palmer, in the other hand, is going to get beat bad. Last time around, Lazere was actually a formidable candidate and Mendelson absolutely crushed him. It will be a wider margin for Palmer.

I disagree R white has run a bad campaign. I was unfamiliar with him and have been following his campaign and excited for that energy and possibility of transparency versus four more years of none is what pushed me to vote for R White. But I get why people want to stay with what they knew and bowser isn’t terrible just time for a change I believe

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Bowser wins but with only about 50% of the vote. I’d guess Bowser 50, R White 30, T White 20.

I’m voting for Palmer but think Mendo pulls it out (but that it will be closer than people think). 55/45?

No idea about Ward 3 but really worry it will be Goulet and am trying to choose strategically between Duncan and Frumin to prevent that from happening.

Can’t predict at-large, ward 5, or ward 1. Voting for Gore in at-large, so I hope she pulls it out. But I suspect the challengers will fracture the opposition and Bonds will hold on.

I'm voting for Duncan and Fleming just because I think they have the best odds of beating Goulet and Bonds, respectively. A council with those two on it for the next four years would be disastrous. I like Frumin and Gore a lot as well, I just feel that Duncan and Fleming have better chances.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Bowser was polling at 47% in the one poll I saw (from WaPo): https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/02/17/dc-poll-bowser-white-election/

I’m also thinking Palmer may sneak up on Mendo just as Nadeau snuck up on Graham. I don’t think she’ll beat him but I think she’ll be more competitive than folks suspect.

Bowser is polling low but will do much better at the ballot. That’s what incumbency means. Anyone on the fence about her (and I’m sure there are many) will more likely than not pull the lever for her in the end. She’s certainly going to lose Wards 7 and 8. But Robert White had run such a bad campaign that he doesn’t look promising to significantly cut into her vote share in the rest the city.

Graham was under investigation for corruption at the time Nadeau beat him. The main issue for voters at the time was whether they would re-elect a corrupt politician. No comparison to Mendelson. His crime seems to be that he doesn’t govern for social media engagement. Twitter is not real life, even in hyper political DC. Nadeau also only eon with only 6,600 votes against 4,600 votes. Mendelson is in a city-wide race. There is absolutely no comparison here. There isn’t even a major animating purpose to Palmer’s campaign other than she’s younger and more attuned to social media.

The mayor race might be a little closer due to having 3 candidates and general dissatisfaction with Bowser. But Palmer, in the other hand, is going to get beat bad. Last time around, Lazere was actually a formidable candidate and Mendelson absolutely crushed him. It will be a wider margin for Palmer.

I disagree R white has run a bad campaign. I was unfamiliar with him and have been following his campaign and excited for that energy and possibility of transparency versus four more years of none is what pushed me to vote for R White. But I get why people want to stay with what they knew and bowser isn’t terrible just time for a change I believe

He’s run a bad campaign because he’s not articulated a core reason/vision for why he should replace Bowser. He’s also bizarrely completely misread her weaknesses and the politics of the city. He’s running to her left as the more progressive candidate, giving her free run to be the “responsible” candidate but there has been a lot of incompetence and poor performance under Bowser. If he instead decided to run an un-ideological campaign focused on improving services and quality of life, he would probably be giving her a challenge. Instead he’s running a left, progressive campaign but making compromises trying to appeal to too many different communities and as a result he’s floundered.

[Anonymous]

Really interesting take above. I was surprised R White decided to run so far to the left. I think he’s running to the left of even his record on Council. I know he voted for things like the high earner income tax increase but in my mind he’s no Nadeau, Silverman, Lewis George. I guess it’s what he thought he had to do to differentiate himself from Bowser.

PP, I think you’re right, he would have had more luck running as a centrist. There is a strong progressive bloc in the city but it’s not that strong — look at Ed Lazere winning only like 30% against Mendo.

[Anonymous]

Basically Nadeau and her supporters suffer from white savior
complex. She pushes legislation that appeals to them but her
record is one of little impact. She's the least accomplished
two term member of the council. Ignoring crime while people
of color are killed fits perfectly with this scenario. She feels
like she's helping them by launching feel good initiatives that
appeal to her supporters yet hurt the community she claims to
care about.

Guess which side votes?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Really interesting take above. I was surprised R White decided to run so far to the left. I think he’s running to the left of even his record on Council. I know he voted for things like the high earner income tax increase but in my mind he’s no Nadeau, Silverman, Lewis George. I guess it’s what he thought he had to do to differentiate himself from Bowser.

PP, I think you’re right, he would have had more luck running as a centrist. There is a strong progressive bloc in the city but it’s not that strong — look at Ed Lazere winning only like 30% against Mendo.

I don’t think this is right. Bowser is the centrist, whatever the hell that means.

He would have been more effective running a campaign based on competence and caring about individuals rather than special interests. He would have hammered her over poor physical plant conditions in school buildings that were built in the last 15 years (mostly on her watch) and the complete failure of DGS to maintain them or even respond to urgent repair requests. He would have really drilled down on dangerous driving and her failure to protect pedestrians. It’s interesting that when she’s challenged on these sorts of failures, she basically falls back to, “well, there’s only so much government can do,” which is such a weak response. That no one decided to really go after her on competence was a huge missed opportunity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meh. I have voted for Mendo at least twice and I’m voting for Erin Palmer. So are all of friends. If Vince Gray had challenged him, Gray would have won handily. I think it’s going to be close. The tacit misogyny around the race is pissing women off.

I've voted for Mendelson in every election since he was first elected in 1998, but not this time. His dealings with the Old Hardy School were the last straw for me.

What on earth are you talking about? That was 100 percent a Bowser special, her campaign staff and the Lab School board are basically one and the same. The Council tried to stop that deal.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Really interesting take above. I was surprised R White decided to run so far to the left. I think he’s running to the left of even his record on Council. I know he voted for things like the high earner income tax increase but in my mind he’s no Nadeau, Silverman, Lewis George. I guess it’s what he thought he had to do to differentiate himself from Bowser.

PP, I think you’re right, he would have had more luck running as a centrist. There is a strong progressive bloc in the city but it’s not that strong — look at Ed Lazere winning only like 30% against Mendo.

I don’t think this is right. Bowser is the centrist, whatever the hell that means.

He would have been more effective running a campaign based on competence and caring about individuals rather than special interests. He would have hammered her over poor physical plant conditions in school buildings that were built in the last 15 years (mostly on her watch) and the complete failure of DGS to maintain them or even respond to urgent repair requests. He would have really drilled down on dangerous driving and her failure to protect pedestrians. It’s interesting that when she’s challenged on these sorts of failures, she basically falls back to, “well, there’s only so much government can do,” which is such a weak response. That no one decided to really go after her on competence was a huge missed opportunity.

This is correct. Key messages would be about ineffective, wasteful and incompetent government and poor quality of life. Instead of promoting himself a political centrist, there is a lot if room for someone to step into the political void to promote themselves as a “Uniter” because there a lot of people who feel disaffected by Bowser and her leadership style is high handed and divisive at times.

[Anonymous]

There are so many other important races going on I’ve nearly forgotten about the at large race. Is Anita Bonds a shoo in due to the split vote? I saw Lisa Gore was endorsed by GGW and that’s about all the info I have. I did get a mailer from Nate Fleming which mostly highlighted the fact he was carjacked which was a huge turn off for me.

Speaking of GGW…they haven’t put out their endorsement for Mayor yet. My guess is they will go Bowser. Thoughts?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There are so many other important races going on I’ve nearly forgotten about the at large race. Is Anita Bonds a shoo in due to the split vote? I saw Lisa Gore was endorsed by GGW and that’s about all the info I have. I did get a mailer from Nate Fleming which mostly highlighted the fact he was carjacked which was a huge turn off for me.

Speaking of GGW…they haven’t put out their endorsement for Mayor yet. My guess is they will go Bowser. Thoughts?

GGW are irrelevant. The only GGW endorsed candidates that will win are incumbents (Allen, Nadeau), so they are not moving the needle.

This is not a change election, so all incumbents will win, Bonds included.