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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Bowser was polling at 47% in the one poll I saw (from WaPo): https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/02/17/dc-poll-bowser-white-election/

I’m also thinking Palmer may sneak up on Mendo just as Nadeau snuck up on Graham. I don’t think she’ll beat him but I think she’ll be more competitive than folks suspect.[/quote]
Bowser is polling low but will do much better at the ballot. That’s what incumbency means. Anyone on the fence about her (and I’m sure there are many) will more likely than not pull the lever for her in the end. She’s certainly going to lose Wards 7 and 8. But Robert White had run such a bad campaign that he doesn’t look promising to significantly cut into her vote share in the rest the city.

Graham was under investigation for corruption at the time Nadeau beat him. The main issue for voters at the time was whether they would re-elect a corrupt politician. No comparison to Mendelson. His crime seems to be that he doesn’t govern for social media engagement. Twitter is not real life, even in hyper political DC. Nadeau also only eon with only 6,600 votes against 4,600 votes. Mendelson is in a city-wide race. There is absolutely no comparison here. There isn’t even a major animating purpose to Palmer’s campaign other than she’s younger and more attuned to social media.

The mayor race might be a little closer due to having 3 candidates and general dissatisfaction with Bowser. But Palmer, in the other hand, is going to get beat bad. Last time around, Lazere was actually a formidable candidate and Mendelson absolutely crushed him. It will be a wider margin for Palmer. [/quote]

I disagree R white has run a bad campaign. I was unfamiliar with him and have been following his campaign and excited for that energy and possibility of transparency versus four more years of none is what pushed me to vote for R White. But I get why people want to stay with what they knew and bowser isn’t terrible just time for a change I believe [/quote]
He’s run a bad campaign because he’s not articulated a core reason/vision for why he should replace Bowser. He’s also bizarrely completely misread her weaknesses and the politics of the city. He’s running to her left as the more progressive candidate, giving her free run to be the “responsible” candidate but there has been a lot of incompetence and poor performance under Bowser. If he instead decided to run an un-ideological campaign focused on improving services and quality of life, he would probably be giving her a challenge. Instead he’s running a left, progressive campaign but making compromises trying to appeal to too many different communities and as a result he’s floundered.[/quote]

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