Prices dropping in COVID Boomtowns

[Anonymous]

I just got my first contract from the government post COVID and the employee terms were clear, no restrictions but within an hour of their facilities. So living in the keys (unless you work for the navy) is out.

I look at homes like this (there are many that went 200k over asking in fairfax) and do wonder if the market will sustain these prices.

Great house from the listing- but maybe the new suburb 1.6m house is this?
https://www.redfin.com/VA/Fairfax/3712-Morningside-Dr-22031/home/9627734

[Anonymous]

The hot real estate market across the country and in rural areas was driven primarily by record low interest rates, not people moving from DC to the middle of nowhere. Most people weren't fleeing Indianapolis for a cheaper market.

These price cuts indicate a cooling of the market. Rates have started creeping back up. And it's also October, which means most people who wanted to move in 2021 have moved because they tend to move in cycle with the school year.

We'll see what happens in the spring. I do hope for a sensible cooling of the market but I'm not jumping into this "told you so" whining because so far nothing is really proving anything. A lot of people are still working remotely, a lot of people have effectively been told they can work remotely permanently, or only need to come into the office 1 or 2 days a week, and even that alone still has significant implications for the real estate market.

[Anonymous]

I'm in Frederick, and seeing asking prices go down and houses sit for longer, but they're still substantially higher than 2019. The asking prices just went so stratospheric that actual purchase prices are not increasing as quickly. That's not the same as prices dropping, in my mind.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prices are still up in our area near a metro stop that no one o DCUM likes.

If you're got a metro stop no one is talking about you. Its the fools that moved out to FauquierCounty 'because you're never going back into the office' that are in trouble.

I am one of the people that recently moved to Fauquier County, and we didn’t make the move until we knew what type of telework DH and I would have coming out of the pandemic. With so many people teleworking for portions of the week, the commute is nowhere near the hellscape that DCUM would make it out it be (my office is right off 395 so I do no city driving to get to work which helps). All of the people we know who moved here in the last year did the same. That being said, the market out here has slowed, but we won’t know until spring whether the current slowdown is a function of the season, or people recalculating based on how often they will have to be in the office.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No downward movement in my Annapolis-area zip code.

Annapolis is within commuting distance from DC. I know many people who commuted from Annapolis daily pre-covid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The hot real estate market across the country and in rural areas was driven primarily by record low interest rates, not people moving from DC to the middle of nowhere. Most people weren't fleeing Indianapolis for a cheaper market.

These price cuts indicate a cooling of the market. Rates have started creeping back up. And it's also October, which means most people who wanted to move in 2021 have moved because they tend to move in cycle with the school year.

We'll see what happens in the spring. I do hope for a sensible cooling of the market but I'm not jumping into this "told you so" whining because so far nothing is really proving anything. A lot of people are still working remotely, a lot of people have effectively been told they can work remotely permanently, or only need to come into the office 1 or 2 days a week, and even that alone still has significant implications for the real estate market.

Reading comprehension is important. The article isn't about people living in exurbia and commuting into the city 1-2 days a week. It's about the remote small cities and resort areas. If you read the article, Indianapolis was cited as a place people moved TO, not away from. Also, I disagree with the bolded. Maybe not as many from DC, but I live in a charming small town near a resort area a long way away from the East Coast, and we were inundated last year with people from New York looking for houses. There were multiple families from the Northeast or Midwestern Cities that literally had real estate agents walking around knocking on doors and asking what it would take for you to move. There were three different families from New York on my street that lived here at least part of last year. The last four houses that sold in my neighborhood weren't on the market. They were all people who had second homes and they got an offer they couldn't refuse, so they sold and went to live in their beach house. I have friends in the Boise area, and it was even crazier there.

Last year, there were almost zero houses available in very remote places like Telluride that would be hell to try to commute from, even on a monthly basis (unless you have a private jet). There were a lot of rich people paying multiple millions for houses in places like that, just so they could escape the big cities. There are a lot of houses on the market now in Telluride, many with price drops. I honestly think those people will consider it money well spent, and won't care too much if they don't get their money back when they sell. The bottom line is that the prices were unsustainable, and resort areas are always hit hardest when there's a recession.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prices are still up in our area near a metro stop that no one o DCUM likes.

If you're got a metro stop no one is talking about you. Its the fools that moved out to FauquierCounty 'because you're never going back into the office' that are in trouble.

They keep expanding "Northern Virginia".

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The hot real estate market across the country and in rural areas was driven primarily by record low interest rates, not people moving from DC to the middle of nowhere. Most people weren't fleeing Indianapolis for a cheaper market.

These price cuts indicate a cooling of the market. Rates have started creeping back up. And it's also October, which means most people who wanted to move in 2021 have moved because they tend to move in cycle with the school year.

We'll see what happens in the spring. I do hope for a sensible cooling of the market but I'm not jumping into this "told you so" whining because so far nothing is really proving anything. A lot of people are still working remotely, a lot of people have effectively been told they can work remotely permanently, or only need to come into the office 1 or 2 days a week, and even that alone still has significant implications for the real estate market.

Reading comprehension is important. The article isn't about people living in exurbia and commuting into the city 1-2 days a week. It's about the remote small cities and resort areas. If you read the article, Indianapolis was cited as a place people moved TO, not away from. Also, I disagree with the bolded. Maybe not as many from DC, but I live in a charming small town near a resort area a long way away from the East Coast, and we were inundated last year with people from New York looking for houses. There were multiple families from the Northeast or Midwestern Cities that literally had real estate agents walking around knocking on doors and asking what it would take for you to move. There were three different families from New York on my street that lived here at least part of last year. The last four houses that sold in my neighborhood weren't on the market. They were all people who had second homes and they got an offer they couldn't refuse, so they sold and went to live in their beach house. I have friends in the Boise area, and it was even crazier there.

Last year, there were almost zero houses available in very remote places like Telluride that would be hell to try to commute from, even on a monthly basis (unless you have a private jet). There were a lot of rich people paying multiple millions for houses in places like that, just so they could escape the big cities. There are a lot of houses on the market now in Telluride, many with price drops. I honestly think those people will consider it money well spent, and won't care too much if they don't get their money back when they sell. The bottom line is that the prices were unsustainable, and resort areas are always hit hardest when there's a recession.

The vagaries of a resort real estate market has nothing to do with national real estate trends. Trying to extrapolate from it is a bit too wishful.

Probably what happened was prices shot up, and existing homeowners decided to cash out and listed their properties that they otherwise wouldn't have listed.

I don't doubt the market nationally is slowing, but it is the time of the year markets start to slow, and rates have started going back up. There's also significant worries over inflation and even other economic factors that are probably playing a role in people's decisions to stop looking. I live in the Baltimore suburbs and sales have started to slow too. What it means is slight price cuts from very peak prices of earlier this year and taking a bit longer to sell. But there's no crash. Selling prices are still higher than 18 months ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The hot real estate market across the country and in rural areas was driven primarily by record low interest rates, not people moving from DC to the middle of nowhere. Most people weren't fleeing Indianapolis for a cheaper market.

These price cuts indicate a cooling of the market. Rates have started creeping back up. And it's also October, which means most people who wanted to move in 2021 have moved because they tend to move in cycle with the school year.

We'll see what happens in the spring. I do hope for a sensible cooling of the market but I'm not jumping into this "told you so" whining because so far nothing is really proving anything. A lot of people are still working remotely, a lot of people have effectively been told they can work remotely permanently, or only need to come into the office 1 or 2 days a week, and even that alone still has significant implications for the real estate market.

Reading comprehension is important. The article isn't about people living in exurbia and commuting into the city 1-2 days a week. It's about the remote small cities and resort areas. If you read the article, Indianapolis was cited as a place people moved TO, not away from. Also, I disagree with the bolded. Maybe not as many from DC, but I live in a charming small town near a resort area a long way away from the East Coast, and we were inundated last year with people from New York looking for houses. There were multiple families from the Northeast or Midwestern Cities that literally had real estate agents walking around knocking on doors and asking what it would take for you to move. There were three different families from New York on my street that lived here at least part of last year. The last four houses that sold in my neighborhood weren't on the market. They were all people who had second homes and they got an offer they couldn't refuse, so they sold and went to live in their beach house. I have friends in the Boise area, and it was even crazier there.

Last year, there were almost zero houses available in very remote places like Telluride that would be hell to try to commute from, even on a monthly basis (unless you have a private jet). There were a lot of rich people paying multiple millions for houses in places like that, just so they could escape the big cities. There are a lot of houses on the market now in Telluride, many with price drops. I honestly think those people will consider it money well spent, and won't care too much if they don't get their money back when they sell. The bottom line is that the prices were unsustainable, and resort areas are always hit hardest when there's a recession.

The vagaries of a resort real estate market has nothing to do with national real estate trends. Trying to extrapolate from it is a bit too wishful.

Probably what happened was prices shot up, and existing homeowners decided to cash out and listed their properties that they otherwise wouldn't have listed.

I don't doubt the market nationally is slowing, but it is the time of the year markets start to slow, and rates have started going back up. There's also significant worries over inflation and even other economic factors that are probably playing a role in people's decisions to stop looking. I live in the Baltimore suburbs and sales have started to slow too. What it means is slight price cuts from very peak prices of earlier this year and taking a bit longer to sell. But there's no crash. Selling prices are still higher than 18 months ago.

This discussion is about real estate in resort and rural markets, and you are the only one talking about extrapolating that to national real estate trends.

The point of the article is that people who own houses in resort markets who are trying to cash in now missed the covid wave. If you bought at the height of the covid wave in a remote area, you probably overpaid. That’s it.