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Tunisia
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jsteele
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According to press reports, Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali has fled the country and the Prime Minister has taken control. A state of emergency has been declared and Tunisian airspace has been closed. This follows a popular uprising of Tunisians upset with the state of the economy and the rampant corruption in the country.
While the protests in Tunisia have much in common with those in Iran last year, they haven't gotten near the level of attention in the US. The protests erupted after a vegetable vendor set himself on fire to protest the confiscation of his unlicensed cart. Starting in the provinces, the protests spread to the capital this week and dozens of protesters have been killed by security forces. The protests have utilized modern communications tools including Twitter and Facebook. Wikileaks even played a role when cables they revealed brought attention to the excesses of the Tunisian First Lady. It's too early to tell what will happen in the country. Things have been moving fast. Yesterday, Ben Ali said he would serve out his term, which ends in 2014. Then, he said he would hold elections in 6 months. Today, he is apparently out of power. Whether this will signal a transition to reform or is just a palace coup and the Prime Minister will simply take over as dictator remains to be seen. But, events are likely to have a major impact in the rest of the Arab world where dictatorial government is pretty much the norm. The US response will be interesting to watch. With Obama's talk of democracy and human rights, the Tunisian people will expect support for democratic reforms. If the US supports continued dictatorship under the Prime Minister, it will increase anti-Americanism among the population and certainly be seized upon by the likes of al-Qaida. Given the current state of emergency and the draconian measures decreed (e.g. no gatherings larger than 3 people and protesters can be shot on sight), the next few days will potentially be very bloody, but crucial to the country's future. |
Anonymous
| serious question: how does what happens in Tunisia affect the national interests of the USA? Iran and Iraq control precious and valuable resources. |
Anonymous
| Thank you, Jeff, for summing this up. I have been hearing about this, and had never even heard of Tunisia before yesterday. It's nice to know that this site is more than about fluff and snide remarks. |
Anonymous
| We bought plane tickets for a vacation to Tunisia next September. We're a little confused about whether to cancel or not. |
Anonymous
There are a lot of things going on. The current regime is a mix of moderation and authoritarianism. They are moderate on women's issues and, importantly, Israel-Palestine. And as members of the Arab League, that matters for middle-east peace. This is one consideration for us. If we can ensure that the next government is supportive of a reasonable approach to Israel, it helps. Generally they are cooperative with the west. They do a huge amount of trade with the EU, and economic interests lead to political alliance. On the other hand, they are authoritarian political regime. They have had the same "President" for almost 25 years, and I think this is one of those places where he gets elected with {wink} 90% of the vote. He has been facing a lot of internal pressure and now he's out. But there are a lot of other countries who are moderate toward Israel and would even support us against Iran (such as Saudi Arabia) who are also in the same situation: monarchies mostly who face a lot of internal pressure. If we don't handle it right, it threatens our relations with them and again we need the moderates to help solve the middle-east dllemma. In short, we want to see a country that is more democratic but still supportive of middle-east peace. And in doing so, we have to make sure we don't scare the Saudis, Emirates, Jordan, etc. All of this is for regional stability. |
jsteele
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Tunisia is a long-time US ally. In fact, the relationship goes back over 200 years. Tunisia's geographic location is important and what happens there can easily influence what happens in Algeria, Libya, Egypt and Morocco. Of course, there is always the possibility that al-Qaida or other extremists will find a way to take advantage of the situation. Also, Tunisia has decent relations with Israel. The Tunisian Jewish community is one of the oldest in the world and, if not thriving, at least doing fairly well. What happens in Tunisia does not have immediate potential threats like a cutoff in oil, but rather longer term and less easily to resolve impacts. The most immediate threat, however, is spillover to neighboring countries and even Europe -- especially France. To the poster who has plans to travel to Tunisia, the tourist that are there now are reporting that the situation is scary, but they don't feel threatened. Tourism is one of, if not the, most important industries in Tunisia and few will want to disrupt it. However, you will need to keep a close eye on things because the situation is very unpredictable. |
Anonymous
I have a work aquaintance who's there right now, holed up in a hotel in Tunis, with snipers on rooftops. She feels very threatened. I know that things are changing by the second, though. I hope she gets out of there tomorrow. |
Anonymous
Seriously? You've never even heard of Tunisia before this? How can that be? |
jsteele
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I want to provide more information about Muhammad Bouazizi, the street vender who self-immolation sparked the revolt in Tunisia. He already has a Wikipedia page here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Bouazizi Another good article is here: http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/101313/20110114/the-story-of-mohamed-bouazizi-the-man-who-toppled-tunisia.htm Bouazizi is rapidly becoming a hero in the Arab world. He was unemployed and, to make ends meet, was selling vegetables from a cart in the town of Sidi Bouzid. The police confiscated his cart and mistreated him. He attempted to protest the seizure with the authorities, but to no avail. He then drenched himself in gasoline and set himself afire in front of the governor's office. Before his protest act, Bouazizi left a message on his Facebook page directed to his mother. He was very concerned that she would blame him for his action and for disobeying her. He asked for her forgiveness, saying "Blame the time and not me" and "No blame can benefit in a time that is treacherous". Bouazizi's actions sparked a protest in Sidi Bouzid. When the authorities forcibly put that down, additional protests broke out elsewhere. Eventually, the protests reached the capital, Tunis, resulting in the President fleeing the country. |
Anonymous
everyone is not great in geography, especially somewhat small and obscure north african countries. I've heard about it, and almost went when I was in at the Rock of Gilbatar |
Anonymous
I guess this would fit into the snide remark category. Sigh. |
Anonymous
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And here is the beginning of the spillover effect:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704698004576104112320465414.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsSecond |
Anonymous
I don't know about this one, though. Even though most who are revolting are in many ways secular, the Muslim Brotherhood is so incredibly strong. If Mubarak topples (and good riddance), you could end up with a huge (70 million plus) fundamentalist Islamic state. Definitely not the direction I want to see them head. 
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Anonymous
You don't have to be great in geography. I'm not great in geography, either. I don't know exactly where every single country is located on the globe. But I like to think that I've at least heard of most of them. I didn't mean to insult that poster personally. It is frustrating though that as Americans (I assume poster is American) we have such little knowledge of the world outside our borders. It was meant mainly as a vent. Please accept my apology. |
Anonymous
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And now it is spilling into Yemen
http://m.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/27/yemen-protests-president-saleh?cat=world&type=article |