I am a earthquake seismologist. AMA. 5th anniversary of Louisa Quake

[Anonymous]

Didn’t read the older parts of the thread, so may be addressed.

What are the current odds of the big one in CA in the next 10 years?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Didn’t read the older parts of the thread, so may be addressed.

What are the current odds of the big one in CA in the next 10 years?

Big one as being the Magnitude 8 on the San Andreas? The one with 10 m of rupture?

That event occurs approximately every 200-300 years. So, in a 10 year span, it is about 5%; maybe a little higher, because it has been about 170 years since the last one.

What we have learned is the only threat is not the big one, but the pretty big ones, like the one last night. Fortunately, that occurred in the middle of nowhere. If an earthquake like that occurred in a city, it would be bad. And similar earthquakes have occurred on the Hayward fault (NoCal/Bay Area), and So Cal (Northridge, Long Beach, San Fernando -- all populated today). Other examples in unpopulated areas are Landers (1992), Superstition Hills (1987 I think), Kern County (Bakersfield).

[Anonymous]

Is it obnoxious to contact my SoCal distant relatives via FB just to see if they are okay? We just exchange Christmas greetings so I feel weird asking “You good?”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is it obnoxious to contact my SoCal distant relatives via FB just to see if they are okay? We just exchange Christmas greetings so I feel weird asking “You good?”

I am a scientist, not a psychologist or etiquette expert. Unless they are near china lake or ridgecrest, they are fine

[Anonymous]

I love your character on the Bureau. TV show.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is it obnoxious to contact my SoCal distant relatives via FB just to see if they are okay? We just exchange Christmas greetings so I feel weird asking “You good?”

I'm in OC. Everyone in or around OC is fine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is it obnoxious to contact my SoCal distant relatives via FB just to see if they are okay? We just exchange Christmas greetings so I feel weird asking “You good?”

We are east coast and my Burbank cuz posted that it was a 'shaker, not a roller' lol , of course if people were injured or killed he would not have joked. We did ask if they 'were good' it's ok to ask.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is it obnoxious to contact my SoCal distant relatives via FB just to see if they are okay? We just exchange Christmas greetings so I feel weird asking “You good?”

We are east coast and my Burbank cuz posted that it was a 'shaker, not a roller' lol , of course if people were injured or killed he would not have joked. We did ask if they 'were good' it's ok to ask.

Whoops-he said 'roller not shaker'!!! East coaster who's never been in one but apparently there is a difference!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is it obnoxious to contact my SoCal distant relatives via FB just to see if they are okay? We just exchange Christmas greetings so I feel weird asking “You good?”

I'm in OC. Everyone in or around OC is fine.

Same. I'm in Coastal Orange County - it was quite the "shaker", but no damage.