Do you think our graduating seniors will have a normal college experience?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Spouse works at a top private college with a large endowment. They are just waiting to see what the next fed budget looks like to start making cuts. Expect some of the following:

--Cancellation/"Pauses" of all Phd programs
-- Getting rid entirely of less popular departments that can be deemed non-essential to the mission. I think any ethnicity or women's studies likely on the chopping block, but also some humanities departments with low enrollment
--End of anything DEI
--End of merit aid
--End of any non-essential spending on student services

Again this is a well funded school, so expect the same or worse elsewhere.

My DC is in at a mid-sized private schools with a decent merit aid package that is for 4 years assuming DC keeps up the grades. Would those be in danger?

My guess is that, unless they are on the brink of bankruptcy, schools will not rescind merit awards for current students. In addition, because schools depend on partial-pay families middle income families (i.e., those who get merit), they will not want to scare off the next few years of applicants.

The real victims will be poor kids, who depend on full or almost full FA to attend. They will be SOL, I worry.

spend some time away from here and on r/academia or r/professors or r/askacademia or r/highereducation.
so many people inside universities commenting right now.

Lots of people commenting lots of things. . . .

But the fact is, most schools are tuition dependent; they use 'merit' awards as a differential pricing mechanism. Rescinding merit would result in fewer (partial) tuition-paying students and a loss of income. Most schools outside of the T20 won't be able to afford that. They need those families who are chasing merit.

Income-based financial aid, much of which goes to students from families with very limited ability to pay, will suffer.

I think most of the T75, maybe T100 can fill their class without merit, keeping in mind that many of those schools are nit need blind.

Not without accepting large numbers of far less competitive applicants.

The world has changed. They need to care only about finding candidates who can pay.
Its a whole new world.

No, the schools need to make sure they can cover their costs (plus, hopefully, add to their endowment / reserves) and continue to attract future students.

One strategy for doing that would be to admit only (or mostly) full-pay students. However, relaxing admission standards will undercut their brand value and undermine their future viability.

Continuing with a differential pricing model (i.e., giving merit aid to donut hole families who might otherwise choose cheaper schools and very strong students who might otherwise choose more highly ranked schools) seems more strategic in my opinion. But again, we lack data. . . .

Not really. Only in the last 15-20 years have colleges become so hyper competitive. In the 80s and 90s these same colleges had laxer academic requirements and they did quite well. I think they will be ok if they focus on financial preservation instead of attracting best & brightest.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Spouse works at a top private college with a large endowment. They are just waiting to see what the next fed budget looks like to start making cuts. Expect some of the following:

--Cancellation/"Pauses" of all Phd programs
-- Getting rid entirely of less popular departments that can be deemed non-essential to the mission. I think any ethnicity or women's studies likely on the chopping block, but also some humanities departments with low enrollment
--End of anything DEI
--End of merit aid
--End of any non-essential spending on student services

Again this is a well funded school, so expect the same or worse elsewhere.

My DC is in at a mid-sized private schools with a decent merit aid package that is for 4 years assuming DC keeps up the grades. Would those be in danger?

My guess is that, unless they are on the brink of bankruptcy, schools will not rescind merit awards for current students. In addition, because schools depend on partial-pay families middle income families (i.e., those who get merit), they will not want to scare off the next few years of applicants.

The real victims will be poor kids, who depend on full or almost full FA to attend. They will be SOL, I worry.

spend some time away from here and on r/academia or r/professors or r/askacademia or r/highereducation.
so many people inside universities commenting right now.

Lots of people commenting lots of things. . . .

But the fact is, most schools are tuition dependent; they use 'merit' awards as a differential pricing mechanism. Rescinding merit would result in fewer (partial) tuition-paying students and a loss of income. Most schools outside of the T20 won't be able to afford that. They need those families who are chasing merit.

Income-based financial aid, much of which goes to students from families with very limited ability to pay, will suffer.

I think most of the T75, maybe T100 can fill their class without merit, keeping in mind that many of those schools are nit need blind.

Not without accepting large numbers of far less competitive applicants.

Which schools do you think are giving lots of merit? We aren’t talking about financial aid, but merit. I think you need to go outside T100 to fin schools that are giving everyone a discounted price.

No, that is incorrect. My kids got merit offers from every school that accepted them, and none were out of the top 100. Also there are many excellent colleges out of the top 100. Ranking colleges is silly.

same, so many "merit" discounts and we are full pay, at many schools! most of my D's private girls school senior class has gotten merit discounts at OOS publics and privates in the top 75. These are not top kids they are just above average, 1300-1400, 4.1 "weighted" which is not top 20%. I am not talking about the real, rare merit that schools like Vandy and Wake and UNC who give full or almost full rides to less than 5% of the admitted class. I mean schools like SMU, Fordham, and dozens of out of state publics that do it to lure Virginia kids. These girls all got defer/WL or rejected from UVA and VT and yet are getting "merit" elsewhere. All are full pay quite rich families. That is not real merit, it is discounts to lure full pay families and it will start happening even more as these non-elite schools struggle more than the elite ones. Every one of these girls would go to UVA in state or a similarly ranked school if they could get in, including mine who is still hopeful for a WL miracle.

Yeah, my full-pay kid is holding 5 offers from "T75/T50" schools, public (all OOS) and private. All offered merit, in amounts ranging from $15K to over $30K. Total direct costs (i.e., tuition, fees, room & board) would run between $20K and $52K. (I fear the RD round schools will be either dings or more expensive, but I guess we'll know soon.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Spouse works at a top private college with a large endowment. They are just waiting to see what the next fed budget looks like to start making cuts. Expect some of the following:

--Cancellation/"Pauses" of all Phd programs
-- Getting rid entirely of less popular departments that can be deemed non-essential to the mission. I think any ethnicity or women's studies likely on the chopping block, but also some humanities departments with low enrollment
--End of anything DEI
--End of merit aid
--End of any non-essential spending on student services

Again this is a well funded school, so expect the same or worse elsewhere.

My DC is in at a mid-sized private schools with a decent merit aid package that is for 4 years assuming DC keeps up the grades. Would those be in danger?

My guess is that, unless they are on the brink of bankruptcy, schools will not rescind merit awards for current students. In addition, because schools depend on partial-pay families middle income families (i.e., those who get merit), they will not want to scare off the next few years of applicants.

The real victims will be poor kids, who depend on full or almost full FA to attend. They will be SOL, I worry.

spend some time away from here and on r/academia or r/professors or r/askacademia or r/highereducation.
so many people inside universities commenting right now.

Lots of people commenting lots of things. . . .

But the fact is, most schools are tuition dependent; they use 'merit' awards as a differential pricing mechanism. Rescinding merit would result in fewer (partial) tuition-paying students and a loss of income. Most schools outside of the T20 won't be able to afford that. They need those families who are chasing merit.

Income-based financial aid, much of which goes to students from families with very limited ability to pay, will suffer.

I think most of the T75, maybe T100 can fill their class without merit, keeping in mind that many of those schools are nit need blind.

Not without accepting large numbers of far less competitive applicants.

Which schools do you think are giving lots of merit? We aren’t talking about financial aid, but merit. I think you need to go outside T100 to fin schools that are giving everyone a discounted price.

No, that is incorrect. My kids got merit offers from every school that accepted them, and none were out of the top 100. Also there are many excellent colleges out of the top 100. Ranking colleges is silly.

same, so many "merit" discounts and we are full pay, at many schools! most of my D's private girls school senior class has gotten merit discounts at OOS publics and privates in the top 75. These are not top kids they are just above average, 1300-1400, 4.1 "weighted" which is not top 20%. I am not talking about the real, rare merit that schools like Vandy and Wake and UNC who give full or almost full rides to less than 5% of the admitted class. I mean schools like SMU, Fordham, and dozens of out of state publics that do it to lure Virginia kids. These girls all got defer/WL or rejected from UVA and VT and yet are getting "merit" elsewhere. All are full pay quite rich families. That is not real merit, it is discounts to lure full pay families and it will start happening even more as these non-elite schools struggle more than the elite ones. Every one of these girls would go to UVA in state or a similarly ranked school if they could get in, including mine who is still hopeful for a WL miracle.

Yeah, my full-pay kid is holding 5 offers from "T75/T50" schools, public (all OOS) and private. All offered merit, in amounts ranging from $15K to over $30K. Total direct costs (i.e., tuition, fees, room & board) would run between $20K and $52K. (I fear the RD round schools will be either dings or more expensive, but I guess we'll know soon.)

No one is saying schools don’t give merit, just that they don’t give merit to everyone. If merit is going to only 10 to 15 percent of class, it can be done away with relatively easily for few years. I expect the state schools will be the first to get rid of it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Spouse works at a top private college with a large endowment. They are just waiting to see what the next fed budget looks like to start making cuts. Expect some of the following:

--Cancellation/"Pauses" of all Phd programs
-- Getting rid entirely of less popular departments that can be deemed non-essential to the mission. I think any ethnicity or women's studies likely on the chopping block, but also some humanities departments with low enrollment
--End of anything DEI
--End of merit aid
--End of any non-essential spending on student services

Again this is a well funded school, so expect the same or worse elsewhere.

My DC is in at a mid-sized private schools with a decent merit aid package that is for 4 years assuming DC keeps up the grades. Would those be in danger?

My guess is that, unless they are on the brink of bankruptcy, schools will not rescind merit awards for current students. In addition, because schools depend on partial-pay families middle income families (i.e., those who get merit), they will not want to scare off the next few years of applicants.

The real victims will be poor kids, who depend on full or almost full FA to attend. They will be SOL, I worry.

spend some time away from here and on r/academia or r/professors or r/askacademia or r/highereducation.
so many people inside universities commenting right now.

Lots of people commenting lots of things. . . .

But the fact is, most schools are tuition dependent; they use 'merit' awards as a differential pricing mechanism. Rescinding merit would result in fewer (partial) tuition-paying students and a loss of income. Most schools outside of the T20 won't be able to afford that. They need those families who are chasing merit.

Income-based financial aid, much of which goes to students from families with very limited ability to pay, will suffer.

I think most of the T75, maybe T100 can fill their class without merit, keeping in mind that many of those schools are nit need blind.

Not without accepting large numbers of far less competitive applicants.

Which schools do you think are giving lots of merit? We aren’t talking about financial aid, but merit. I think you need to go outside T100 to fin schools that are giving everyone a discounted price.

No, that is incorrect. My kids got merit offers from every school that accepted them, and none were out of the top 100. Also there are many excellent colleges out of the top 100. Ranking colleges is silly.

same, so many "merit" discounts and we are full pay, at many schools! most of my D's private girls school senior class has gotten merit discounts at OOS publics and privates in the top 75. These are not top kids they are just above average, 1300-1400, 4.1 "weighted" which is not top 20%. I am not talking about the real, rare merit that schools like Vandy and Wake and UNC who give full or almost full rides to less than 5% of the admitted class. I mean schools like SMU, Fordham, and dozens of out of state publics that do it to lure Virginia kids. These girls all got defer/WL or rejected from UVA and VT and yet are getting "merit" elsewhere. All are full pay quite rich families. That is not real merit, it is discounts to lure full pay families and it will start happening even more as these non-elite schools struggle more than the elite ones. Every one of these girls would go to UVA in state or a similarly ranked school if they could get in, including mine who is still hopeful for a WL miracle.

Yeah, my full-pay kid is holding 5 offers from "T75/T50" schools, public (all OOS) and private. All offered merit, in amounts ranging from $15K to over $30K. Total direct costs (i.e., tuition, fees, room & board) would run between $20K and $52K. (I fear the RD round schools will be either dings or more expensive, but I guess we'll know soon.)

NP. I am wondering if that kind of generous merit $ will still be available for the HS class of 2026...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Spouse works at a top private college with a large endowment. They are just waiting to see what the next fed budget looks like to start making cuts. Expect some of the following:

--Cancellation/"Pauses" of all Phd programs
-- Getting rid entirely of less popular departments that can be deemed non-essential to the mission. I think any ethnicity or women's studies likely on the chopping block, but also some humanities departments with low enrollment
--End of anything DEI
--End of merit aid
--End of any non-essential spending on student services

Again this is a well funded school, so expect the same or worse elsewhere.

My DC is in at a mid-sized private schools with a decent merit aid package that is for 4 years assuming DC keeps up the grades. Would those be in danger?

My guess is that, unless they are on the brink of bankruptcy, schools will not rescind merit awards for current students. In addition, because schools depend on partial-pay families middle income families (i.e., those who get merit), they will not want to scare off the next few years of applicants.

The real victims will be poor kids, who depend on full or almost full FA to attend. They will be SOL, I worry.

spend some time away from here and on r/academia or r/professors or r/askacademia or r/highereducation.
so many people inside universities commenting right now.

Lots of people commenting lots of things. . . .

But the fact is, most schools are tuition dependent; they use 'merit' awards as a differential pricing mechanism. Rescinding merit would result in fewer (partial) tuition-paying students and a loss of income. Most schools outside of the T20 won't be able to afford that. They need those families who are chasing merit.

Income-based financial aid, much of which goes to students from families with very limited ability to pay, will suffer.

I think most of the T75, maybe T100 can fill their class without merit, keeping in mind that many of those schools are nit need blind.

Not without accepting large numbers of far less competitive applicants.

Which schools do you think are giving lots of merit? We aren’t talking about financial aid, but merit. I think you need to go outside T100 to fin schools that are giving everyone a discounted price.

No, that is incorrect. My kids got merit offers from every school that accepted them, and none were out of the top 100. Also there are many excellent colleges out of the top 100. Ranking colleges is silly.

same, so many "merit" discounts and we are full pay, at many schools! most of my D's private girls school senior class has gotten merit discounts at OOS publics and privates in the top 75. These are not top kids they are just above average, 1300-1400, 4.1 "weighted" which is not top 20%. I am not talking about the real, rare merit that schools like Vandy and Wake and UNC who give full or almost full rides to less than 5% of the admitted class. I mean schools like SMU, Fordham, and dozens of out of state publics that do it to lure Virginia kids. These girls all got defer/WL or rejected from UVA and VT and yet are getting "merit" elsewhere. All are full pay quite rich families. That is not real merit, it is discounts to lure full pay families and it will start happening even more as these non-elite schools struggle more than the elite ones. Every one of these girls would go to UVA in state or a similarly ranked school if they could get in, including mine who is still hopeful for a WL miracle.

What's wrong with using merit to lure VA kids to other schools? Mine has stats above those you are belittling. The merit makes the idea of experiencing a new area more enticing, even with in-state admissions offers in your pile.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Spouse works at a top private college with a large endowment. They are just waiting to see what the next fed budget looks like to start making cuts. Expect some of the following:

--Cancellation/"Pauses" of all Phd programs
-- Getting rid entirely of less popular departments that can be deemed non-essential to the mission. I think any ethnicity or women's studies likely on the chopping block, but also some humanities departments with low enrollment
--End of anything DEI
--End of merit aid
--End of any non-essential spending on student services

Again this is a well funded school, so expect the same or worse elsewhere.

My DC is in at a mid-sized private schools with a decent merit aid package that is for 4 years assuming DC keeps up the grades. Would those be in danger?

My guess is that, unless they are on the brink of bankruptcy, schools will not rescind merit awards for current students. In addition, because schools depend on partial-pay families middle income families (i.e., those who get merit), they will not want to scare off the next few years of applicants.

The real victims will be poor kids, who depend on full or almost full FA to attend. They will be SOL, I worry.

spend some time away from here and on r/academia or r/professors or r/askacademia or r/highereducation.
so many people inside universities commenting right now.

Lots of people commenting lots of things. . . .

But the fact is, most schools are tuition dependent; they use 'merit' awards as a differential pricing mechanism. Rescinding merit would result in fewer (partial) tuition-paying students and a loss of income. Most schools outside of the T20 won't be able to afford that. They need those families who are chasing merit.

Income-based financial aid, much of which goes to students from families with very limited ability to pay, will suffer.

I think most of the T75, maybe T100 can fill their class without merit, keeping in mind that many of those schools are nit need blind.

Not without accepting large numbers of far less competitive applicants.

The world has changed. They need to care only about finding candidates who can pay.
Its a whole new world.

No, the schools need to make sure they can cover their costs (plus, hopefully, add to their endowment / reserves) and continue to attract future students.

One strategy for doing that would be to admit only (or mostly) full-pay students. However, relaxing admission standards will undercut their brand value and undermine their future viability.

Continuing with a differential pricing model (i.e., giving merit aid to donut hole families who might otherwise choose cheaper schools and very strong students who might otherwise choose more highly ranked schools) seems more strategic in my opinion. But again, we lack data. . . .

Not really. Only in the last 15-20 years have colleges become so hyper competitive. In the 80s and 90s these same colleges had laxer academic requirements and they did quite well. I think they will be ok if they focus on financial preservation instead of attracting best & brightest.

Same. And there might be less protests, more collegiality and frankly more social and fun environments.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Spouse works at a top private college with a large endowment. They are just waiting to see what the next fed budget looks like to start making cuts. Expect some of the following:

--Cancellation/"Pauses" of all Phd programs
-- Getting rid entirely of less popular departments that can be deemed non-essential to the mission. I think any ethnicity or women's studies likely on the chopping block, but also some humanities departments with low enrollment
--End of anything DEI
--End of merit aid
--End of any non-essential spending on student services

Again this is a well funded school, so expect the same or worse elsewhere.

My DC is in at a mid-sized private schools with a decent merit aid package that is for 4 years assuming DC keeps up the grades. Would those be in danger?

My guess is that, unless they are on the brink of bankruptcy, schools will not rescind merit awards for current students. In addition, because schools depend on partial-pay families middle income families (i.e., those who get merit), they will not want to scare off the next few years of applicants.

The real victims will be poor kids, who depend on full or almost full FA to attend. They will be SOL, I worry.

spend some time away from here and on r/academia or r/professors or r/askacademia or r/highereducation.
so many people inside universities commenting right now.

Lots of people commenting lots of things. . . .

But the fact is, most schools are tuition dependent; they use 'merit' awards as a differential pricing mechanism. Rescinding merit would result in fewer (partial) tuition-paying students and a loss of income. Most schools outside of the T20 won't be able to afford that. They need those families who are chasing merit.

Income-based financial aid, much of which goes to students from families with very limited ability to pay, will suffer.

I think most of the T75, maybe T100 can fill their class without merit, keeping in mind that many of those schools are nit need blind.

Not without accepting large numbers of far less competitive applicants.

Which schools do you think are giving lots of merit? We aren’t talking about financial aid, but merit. I think you need to go outside T100 to fin schools that are giving everyone a discounted price.

No, that is incorrect. My kids got merit offers from every school that accepted them, and none were out of the top 100. Also there are many excellent colleges out of the top 100. Ranking colleges is silly.

same, so many "merit" discounts and we are full pay, at many schools! most of my D's private girls school senior class has gotten merit discounts at OOS publics and privates in the top 75. These are not top kids they are just above average, 1300-1400, 4.1 "weighted" which is not top 20%. I am not talking about the real, rare merit that schools like Vandy and Wake and UNC who give full or almost full rides to less than 5% of the admitted class. I mean schools like SMU, Fordham, and dozens of out of state publics that do it to lure Virginia kids. These girls all got defer/WL or rejected from UVA and VT and yet are getting "merit" elsewhere. All are full pay quite rich families. That is not real merit, it is discounts to lure full pay families and it will start happening even more as these non-elite schools struggle more than the elite ones. Every one of these girls would go to UVA in state or a similarly ranked school if they could get in, including mine who is still hopeful for a WL miracle.

What's wrong with using merit to lure VA kids to other schools? Mine has stats above those you are belittling. The merit makes the idea of experiencing a new area more enticing, even with in-state admissions offers in your pile.

With Trump’s proposed cuts, universities will be losing tens to hundreds of millions per year. They won’t be able to afford merit, and it isn’t a necessity,

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:BTW - I'm talking about graduating HS seniors who are just about to start their college years.

I don’t know. I have a 9th grader and I want stability for him and no wars…

[Anonymous]

I'm really nervous for my student starting college next year. He wants to get his PhD in math so research is really important for him during his undergraduate years. I worry about funding for research.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm really nervous for my student starting college next year. He wants to get his PhD in math so research is really important for him during his undergraduate years. I worry about funding for research.

You should be, all research money will be cut.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:BTW - I'm talking about graduating HS seniors who are just about to start their college years.

I don’t know. I have a 9th grader and I want stability for him and no wars…

Me too

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maybe American colleges will stop supporting all these athletic teams. It would be a welcome use of funds.

Maybe colleges will focus again on teaching and not research.

40 years ago many fewer students did research, or only in the last year of college. I think that will be the new course of action. Also MD students waste time on research and that too should be removed. Few doctors really engage in pure research today.

Still going to be tough going.

Totally agree. MDs should understand evidence based practice and how to utilize it in their patient care. They do not need to do primary research if it is not an interest, they will take up after graduation.
College cost are exorbitant. We do not need research done by undergrads. The vast majority of college students do not need internships. In fact, the vast majority of college students do not participate in research or internships. They can do all this once hired. It will be much more cost-effective.
[/quote

This is some kind of clown statement made by a clown.

You can tell they know nothing

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm really nervous for my student starting college next year. He wants to get his PhD in math so research is really important for him during his undergraduate years. I worry about funding for research.

Some colleges have already halted or reduced PhD admissions. Let's hope it gets better in 4 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No, our poor kids already had a pandemic middle school experience, and now they're starting college during a year where Trump (emotionally damaged, angry, narcissist), Vance (emotionally abused, angry) and Elon Musk (drug addict, self-admitted to be autistic, lacks empathy) are doing dangerous, destructive experiments on our country - including education and financial future.

I'm scared for our kids.

I'm scared too. We need to vote like crazy in the next couple of years to elect people outside his party. His party refuses to operate as any kind of check on his power. I've never seen such a destructive presidency in such little time (only 1-2 months). He is breaking everything out of spite and due to alliances made with morally vacant people.

+1

We don't have to accept Trump's vision for education as a forever thing if we VOTE them out for our kids sake.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Spouse works at a top private college with a large endowment. They are just waiting to see what the next fed budget looks like to start making cuts. Expect some of the following:

--Cancellation/"Pauses" of all Phd programs
-- Getting rid entirely of less popular departments that can be deemed non-essential to the mission. I think any ethnicity or women's studies likely on the chopping block, but also some humanities departments with low enrollment
--End of anything DEI
--End of merit aid
--End of any non-essential spending on student services

Again this is a well funded school, so expect the same or worse elsewhere.

My DC is in at a mid-sized private schools with a decent merit aid package that is for 4 years assuming DC keeps up the grades. Would those be in danger?

My guess is that, unless they are on the brink of bankruptcy, schools will not rescind merit awards for current students. In addition, because schools depend on partial-pay families middle income families (i.e., those who get merit), they will not want to scare off the next few years of applicants.

The real victims will be poor kids, who depend on full or almost full FA to attend. They will be SOL, I worry.

spend some time away from here and on r/academia or r/professors or r/askacademia or r/highereducation.
so many people inside universities commenting right now.

Lots of people commenting lots of things. . . .

But the fact is, most schools are tuition dependent; they use 'merit' awards as a differential pricing mechanism. Rescinding merit would result in fewer (partial) tuition-paying students and a loss of income. Most schools outside of the T20 won't be able to afford that. They need those families who are chasing merit.

Income-based financial aid, much of which goes to students from families with very limited ability to pay, will suffer.

I think most of the T75, maybe T100 can fill their class without merit, keeping in mind that many of those schools are nit need blind.

Not without accepting large numbers of far less competitive applicants.

The world has changed. They need to care only about finding candidates who can pay.
Its a whole new world.

No, the schools need to make sure they can cover their costs (plus, hopefully, add to their endowment / reserves) and continue to attract future students.

One strategy for doing that would be to admit only (or mostly) full-pay students. However, relaxing admission standards will undercut their brand value and undermine their future viability.

Continuing with a differential pricing model (i.e., giving merit aid to donut hole families who might otherwise choose cheaper schools and very strong students who might otherwise choose more highly ranked schools) seems more strategic in my opinion. But again, we lack data. . . .

Not really. Only in the last 15-20 years have colleges become so hyper competitive. In the 80s and 90s these same colleges had laxer academic requirements and they did quite well. I think they will be ok if they focus on financial preservation instead of attracting best & brightest.

College is much more of a luxury good than it was 25-35 years ago. Tuition has far outpaced inflation (even though financial aid and merit awards bring the cost down, for all but the richest families, to the range people paid back then).

People are not going to pay luxury prices for goods available to any average earner, and they won't pay $90K+ per year for a service that doesn't signal that they are among the elite. Selective schools are attractive to many BECAUSE the are known to be selective.