So basically you're saying the lack of evidence that induced damage isnt completely made up is itself proof that induced demand isn't completely made up. Got it. |
Look at the transportation survey released last year by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. They have driving up by more than 10 percentage points from 2019, even after correcting for remote work. Bicycling and everything else is down during the same time. |
And of course no one argues that building more housing in DC will just encourage more people to move to DC, which would be the natural implication of applying the theory of induced demand to housing. |
Yet CaBi continues to record record numbers and WMATA is the transit system second only to NYC. https://ggwash.org/view/amp/93867 Also the idea is to reduce car trips … |
And every time you cite that survey, its pointed out that its two-years old, commuting is not representative of all trips, and that the modes vary greatly within this very large metro area. It also shows that drivers are a minority of DC residents. None of this seems to sink through with you though. |
WMATA says fewer people ride the subway now than they did 20 years ago, which is bonkers |
WMATA is still a massive transit system. |
What kind of traffic enforcement would you like to see? What would you like to happen when one of our young scholars refuses to pull over and takes off? What happens when someone driving 28 in a 25 has a gun in their front seat? |
So, to recap (according to you): Official government investigations into the causes of traffic deaths in DC are bullshit Gold standard transportation surveys that we've been relying on for decades are also bullshit Book reports by Estonian high school students on "induced demand" are not bullshit Everyone got it? |
You capacity to process information is bullshit. |
Yes, that response is purposely dense. Your gold standard transportation survey is actually a "commuting" survey. A lot of transportation happens outside of commuting you realize right? Take air travel for instance. Lots of people fly right? But not according to your survey. I guess planes are a figment of our imagination. Biking and walking are much more common modes of transportation for errands and entertainment, and that's where the usage is these days. Also, you do realize commuting patterns in 2022 are not being used to make planning decisions, because everyone knows 20-22 are aberrations. Here's a thought experiment on induced demand. Reverse it. If we decommissioned highways for instance, would fewer people drive to work? |
| The leap of faith the "induced demand" crowd makes is if that if they make traffic awful enough, then people will switch to bikes or buses or whatever. But there's no evidence that's actually happening. The numbers show the opposite. More likely is drivers just sit in traffic longer or they avoid going to parts of the city where traffic is especially bad. I know I stopped going downtown because the bike lanes made traffic and parking so awful. That doesnt mean I stopped driving. I just go elsewhere. Instead of going to the Apple store downtown, I go to one in the burbs. |
If your plan is to drive into the city center of a major metropolitan capital, you have only yourself to blame if you dislike traffic 🤡 |
Table 9 on page 37 of the 2022 report (https://www.mwcog.org/documents/2023/08/14/state-of-the-commute-survey-report--carsharing-state-of-the-commute-telework-travel-surveys/). The share of DC respondents listing "Bike / Walk" as the "Primary Commute Mode" goes from 17% to 16%. The sample sizes are 735 and 956, respectively. If you want to infer a reduction in the popularity of cycling from a decline of one percentage point in a combined category compiled from data collected by a small survey taken during a pandemic that upended commuting modes and transportation generally, go ahead. But no one who knows anything about statistics, commuting, transportation, or anything else related to the real world is going to take you seriously. Particularly when recent data compiled not from a survey but from a population of users completely undermines your inference. |
Oh no! You mean to tell me that there are transportation surveys that don't account for every single trip every single person makes in their lives? What?! Next you're going to tell me that presidential polls don't actually ask every single voter in America whom they prefer. |