MacArthur is the new Walls

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Most of the OOB is coming from JR feeder. Some from Oyster-Adams.

I don’t think so since the majority of OOB are black

Like there are no IB Black kids at JR. SMH.

Never said that and there might be a few but MacArthur is majority black and a title 1 school so majority of black kids are not IB for JR. Data is data and not anecdotal or just because you know a family here and there.

I’ve already asked this question earlier on this thread but no one answered - can you please advise what official resource I can see this information at about MacArthur, e.g the title 1 status and demographics?

NP. I think the "all black kids are OOB" claim for either school is ridiculous and I know of no data that OSSE/DCPS publishes that you could even infer that from. But with respect to the data we do have:

The just released SY23-24 enrollment audit (here: https://osse.dc.gov/node/1720871)

JR: 556 black students (28%) and 557 at-risk students (28%)

MacArthur: 135 black students (57%) and 98 at-risk students (41%)

I don't know a ton about Title 1 eligibility but that at-risk percentage is in line with other schools with Title 1 status.

The only data we have on IB participation rates is from this document (here: https://dme.dc.gov/page/sy2021-22-public-school-enrollments-dcps-boundary) from SY21-22, which is obviously missing MacArthur and definitely does not break down by race or at-risk status. But:

Deal: 78% of students IB (306 students OOB)

Hardy: 62% of students IB (294 students OOB)

Wilson: 64% of students IB (738 students OOB)

So data confirms that MacArthur is majority black and title 1 with that many at risk kids. It’s almost 1/2 at risk.

Sure there is no IB data yet but it’s pretty obvious that majority OOB are black and at risk since race correlates closely with SES in this town.

There is no way that MacArthur is going to be any kind of top performing school with such a large percentage of at risk kids who likely have siblings that will be pulled into the school. No way unless the school uses a large portion of its resources to support these kids.

I'm sorry, are you the same poster who said "data is data"? This is not data.

Race isn't such a surefire proxy for SES. For example, Shepherd Elementary, a Deal feeder, is 47% black, 7% at risk, and 64% IB.

Shepherd is the outlier in that the UMC black families congregate there but in the rest of the city, race does correlate with SES.

The only other small area of town that might be an outlier is Hillcrest.

But above are 2 small sections of the city. Everywhere else everyone knows race correlates with SES.

Absolutely not. I live in the middle of the city (ward 2 school and ward 5 house) and I have many UMC black friends. Ivy grads, professors, etc. Mostly new residents, not generational DC people, who want a good enough school but don't want to send their kids to an overwhelming white school (to avoid racism).

Make more black friends. Race DOES NOT correlate with SES

Wow. That's a strikingly poor understanding of what correlation is. It's a mathematical/statistical term that measures how closely two things track each other. In DC, white and high SES are highly correlated. That the correlation is different between black and high SES is statement of a statistical property of the data rather than any sort of judgmental statement towards high SES black families or your friends. It's really unrelated to high SES black families at all and rather a reflection of the relative absence of low SES white families and how that translates to average measures of the different demographic populations.

Would love to see this data you keep referring to while citing your anecdotal experience. My guess is data would show that both white/high SES and black/low SES are correlated but that white/high SES is much more highly correlated than black/low SES is. The degree of correlation differs, probably even more significantly so when you're talking about families opting into schools with desirable characteristics.

NP. I don’t get why a few people are trying to dispute this. In this town, of course white is correlated with high SES and black is correlated with low SES. Just because your black family is the exception or you know a black family that is doesn’t mean it disputes the data.

I would argue the degree of correlation is greater in black and low SES. There are no poor whites in this town. All the low, poor SES families are black.

The whole point is that while this is true in the aggregate it's actually not that useful for assessing trends at any one particular school where other interrelated variables (location, PARCC scores, attendance rate, violence, etc) are at play. Yes, there are a lot of poor black students in DC. There is also a big-enough contingent of MC and UMC black families in DC to skew those demographics at more desirable schools.

Maybe, but are there enough at-risk in the MA (or combined MA plus J-R) area to account for the title 1 status? It feels like those MC & UMC black families you reference aren't the full story for the current MA student body and that it's drawing significantly from other wards. Sorry for bending this back to the original topic The discussion was about who's at MA now, where it's likely headed once Hardy fully sends to MA starting next year, and how quickly that might percolate through the school.

I don't think we have enough information to know yet. % OOB, % OOB by race, and % OOB by SES is all pure speculation at this point. Based on what we see at some charter and application high schools it's not outside the realm of possibilities that a sizeable number of MC and UMC families will opt or have already opted to attend MacArthur from OOB.

It would make no sense for Capitol Hill families to make a 40 to 50 minute trek to MA when they can just send their kid to Stuart Hobson down the street which has similar at risk percentages.

In addition SH has more extensive curriculum offerings, better facilities, and after school options.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Most of the OOB is coming from JR feeder. Some from Oyster-Adams.

I don’t think so since the majority of OOB are black

Like there are no IB Black kids at JR. SMH.

Never said that and there might be a few but MacArthur is majority black and a title 1 school so majority of black kids are not IB for JR. Data is data and not anecdotal or just because you know a family here and there.

I’ve already asked this question earlier on this thread but no one answered - can you please advise what official resource I can see this information at about MacArthur, e.g the title 1 status and demographics?

NP. I think the "all black kids are OOB" claim for either school is ridiculous and I know of no data that OSSE/DCPS publishes that you could even infer that from. But with respect to the data we do have:

The just released SY23-24 enrollment audit (here: https://osse.dc.gov/node/1720871)

JR: 556 black students (28%) and 557 at-risk students (28%)

MacArthur: 135 black students (57%) and 98 at-risk students (41%)

I don't know a ton about Title 1 eligibility but that at-risk percentage is in line with other schools with Title 1 status.

The only data we have on IB participation rates is from this document (here: https://dme.dc.gov/page/sy2021-22-public-school-enrollments-dcps-boundary) from SY21-22, which is obviously missing MacArthur and definitely does not break down by race or at-risk status. But:

Deal: 78% of students IB (306 students OOB)

Hardy: 62% of students IB (294 students OOB)

Wilson: 64% of students IB (738 students OOB)

So data confirms that MacArthur is majority black and title 1 with that many at risk kids. It’s almost 1/2 at risk.

Sure there is no IB data yet but it’s pretty obvious that majority OOB are black and at risk since race correlates closely with SES in this town.

There is no way that MacArthur is going to be any kind of top performing school with such a large percentage of at risk kids who likely have siblings that will be pulled into the school. No way unless the school uses a large portion of its resources to support these kids.

I'm sorry, are you the same poster who said "data is data"? This is not data.

Race isn't such a surefire proxy for SES. For example, Shepherd Elementary, a Deal feeder, is 47% black, 7% at risk, and 64% IB.

Shepherd is the outlier in that the UMC black families congregate there but in the rest of the city, race does correlate with SES.

The only other small area of town that might be an outlier is Hillcrest.

But above are 2 small sections of the city. Everywhere else everyone knows race correlates with SES.

Absolutely not. I live in the middle of the city (ward 2 school and ward 5 house) and I have many UMC black friends. Ivy grads, professors, etc. Mostly new residents, not generational DC people, who want a good enough school but don't want to send their kids to an overwhelming white school (to avoid racism).

Make more black friends. Race DOES NOT correlate with SES

Wow. That's a strikingly poor understanding of what correlation is. It's a mathematical/statistical term that measures how closely two things track each other. In DC, white and high SES are highly correlated. That the correlation is different between black and high SES is statement of a statistical property of the data rather than any sort of judgmental statement towards high SES black families or your friends. It's really unrelated to high SES black families at all and rather a reflection of the relative absence of low SES white families and how that translates to average measures of the different demographic populations.

Would love to see this data you keep referring to while citing your anecdotal experience. My guess is data would show that both white/high SES and black/low SES are correlated but that white/high SES is much more highly correlated than black/low SES is. The degree of correlation differs, probably even more significantly so when you're talking about families opting into schools with desirable characteristics.

NP. I don’t get why a few people are trying to dispute this. In this town, of course white is correlated with high SES and black is correlated with low SES. Just because your black family is the exception or you know a black family that is doesn’t mean it disputes the data.

I would argue the degree of correlation is greater in black and low SES. There are no poor whites in this town. All the low, poor SES families are black.

The whole point is that while this is true in the aggregate it's actually not that useful for assessing trends at any one particular school where other interrelated variables (location, PARCC scores, attendance rate, violence, etc) are at play. Yes, there are a lot of poor black students in DC. There is also a big-enough contingent of MC and UMC black families in DC to skew those demographics at more desirable schools.

Maybe, but are there enough at-risk in the MA (or combined MA plus J-R) area to account for the title 1 status? It feels like those MC & UMC black families you reference aren't the full story for the current MA student body and that it's drawing significantly from other wards. Sorry for bending this back to the original topic The discussion was about who's at MA now, where it's likely headed once Hardy fully sends to MA starting next year, and how quickly that might percolate through the school.

I don't think we have enough information to know yet. % OOB, % OOB by race, and % OOB by SES is all pure speculation at this point. Based on what we see at some charter and application high schools it's not outside the realm of possibilities that a sizeable number of MC and UMC families will opt or have already opted to attend MacArthur from OOB.

It would make no sense for Capitol Hill families to make a 40 to 50 minute trek to MA when they can just send their kid to Stuart Hobson down the street which has similar at risk percentages.

In addition SH has more extensive curriculum offerings, better facilities, and after school options.

Sorry error was thinking about middle school and not high school. But no, I would not make that long of a commute for a new, untested school with such limited offerings.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Most of the OOB is coming from JR feeder. Some from Oyster-Adams.

I don’t think so since the majority of OOB are black

Like there are no IB Black kids at JR. SMH.

Never said that and there might be a few but MacArthur is majority black and a title 1 school so majority of black kids are not IB for JR. Data is data and not anecdotal or just because you know a family here and there.

I’ve already asked this question earlier on this thread but no one answered - can you please advise what official resource I can see this information at about MacArthur, e.g the title 1 status and demographics?

NP. I think the "all black kids are OOB" claim for either school is ridiculous and I know of no data that OSSE/DCPS publishes that you could even infer that from. But with respect to the data we do have:

The just released SY23-24 enrollment audit (here: https://osse.dc.gov/node/1720871)

JR: 556 black students (28%) and 557 at-risk students (28%)

MacArthur: 135 black students (57%) and 98 at-risk students (41%)

I don't know a ton about Title 1 eligibility but that at-risk percentage is in line with other schools with Title 1 status.

The only data we have on IB participation rates is from this document (here: https://dme.dc.gov/page/sy2021-22-public-school-enrollments-dcps-boundary) from SY21-22, which is obviously missing MacArthur and definitely does not break down by race or at-risk status. But:

Deal: 78% of students IB (306 students OOB)

Hardy: 62% of students IB (294 students OOB)

Wilson: 64% of students IB (738 students OOB)

So data confirms that MacArthur is majority black and title 1 with that many at risk kids. It’s almost 1/2 at risk.

Sure there is no IB data yet but it’s pretty obvious that majority OOB are black and at risk since race correlates closely with SES in this town.

There is no way that MacArthur is going to be any kind of top performing school with such a large percentage of at risk kids who likely have siblings that will be pulled into the school. No way unless the school uses a large portion of its resources to support these kids.

I'm sorry, are you the same poster who said "data is data"? This is not data.

Race isn't such a surefire proxy for SES. For example, Shepherd Elementary, a Deal feeder, is 47% black, 7% at risk, and 64% IB.

Shepherd is the outlier in that the UMC black families congregate there but in the rest of the city, race does correlate with SES.

The only other small area of town that might be an outlier is Hillcrest.

But above are 2 small sections of the city. Everywhere else everyone knows race correlates with SES.

Absolutely not. I live in the middle of the city (ward 2 school and ward 5 house) and I have many UMC black friends. Ivy grads, professors, etc. Mostly new residents, not generational DC people, who want a good enough school but don't want to send their kids to an overwhelming white school (to avoid racism).

Make more black friends. Race DOES NOT correlate with SES

Wow. That's a strikingly poor understanding of what correlation is. It's a mathematical/statistical term that measures how closely two things track each other. In DC, white and high SES are highly correlated. That the correlation is different between black and high SES is statement of a statistical property of the data rather than any sort of judgmental statement towards high SES black families or your friends. It's really unrelated to high SES black families at all and rather a reflection of the relative absence of low SES white families and how that translates to average measures of the different demographic populations.

Would love to see this data you keep referring to while citing your anecdotal experience. My guess is data would show that both white/high SES and black/low SES are correlated but that white/high SES is much more highly correlated than black/low SES is. The degree of correlation differs, probably even more significantly so when you're talking about families opting into schools with desirable characteristics.

NP. I don’t get why a few people are trying to dispute this. In this town, of course white is correlated with high SES and black is correlated with low SES. Just because your black family is the exception or you know a black family that is doesn’t mean it disputes the data.

I would argue the degree of correlation is greater in black and low SES. There are no poor whites in this town. All the low, poor SES families are black.

The whole point is that while this is true in the aggregate it's actually not that useful for assessing trends at any one particular school where other interrelated variables (location, PARCC scores, attendance rate, violence, etc) are at play. Yes, there are a lot of poor black students in DC. There is also a big-enough contingent of MC and UMC black families in DC to skew those demographics at more desirable schools.

Maybe, but are there enough at-risk in the MA (or combined MA plus J-R) area to account for the title 1 status? It feels like those MC & UMC black families you reference aren't the full story for the current MA student body and that it's drawing significantly from other wards. Sorry for bending this back to the original topic The discussion was about who's at MA now, where it's likely headed once Hardy fully sends to MA starting next year, and how quickly that might percolate through the school.

The person throwing out 500 students at risk at JR is trying to twist the truth. Absolute numbers don’t mean much because JR is so much bigger than MA.

JR has about 16% at risk vs MA which is 41%. That’s almost 3 times as much which is significantly more.

JR is not title 1. MA is and it’s obvious MA is drawing a significant portion of OOB at risk kids from other parts of the city,

Limited curriculum offerings, limited sports and extracurriculars, and high at risk and no surprise that some families are not choosing MA over JR.

I literally put the percentage right next to the raw number. JR has 28% at risk.

It’s 16% for JR according to 2023 data below

https://schoolreportcard.dc.gov/lea/1/school/463/report

Your data is old. https://osse.dc.gov/node/1720871

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Most of the OOB is coming from JR feeder. Some from Oyster-Adams.

I don’t think so since the majority of OOB are black

Like there are no IB Black kids at JR. SMH.

Never said that and there might be a few but MacArthur is majority black and a title 1 school so majority of black kids are not IB for JR. Data is data and not anecdotal or just because you know a family here and there.

I’ve already asked this question earlier on this thread but no one answered - can you please advise what official resource I can see this information at about MacArthur, e.g the title 1 status and demographics?

NP. I think the "all black kids are OOB" claim for either school is ridiculous and I know of no data that OSSE/DCPS publishes that you could even infer that from. But with respect to the data we do have:

The just released SY23-24 enrollment audit (here: https://osse.dc.gov/node/1720871)

JR: 556 black students (28%) and 557 at-risk students (28%)

MacArthur: 135 black students (57%) and 98 at-risk students (41%)

I don't know a ton about Title 1 eligibility but that at-risk percentage is in line with other schools with Title 1 status.

The only data we have on IB participation rates is from this document (here: https://dme.dc.gov/page/sy2021-22-public-school-enrollments-dcps-boundary) from SY21-22, which is obviously missing MacArthur and definitely does not break down by race or at-risk status. But:

Deal: 78% of students IB (306 students OOB)

Hardy: 62% of students IB (294 students OOB)

Wilson: 64% of students IB (738 students OOB)

So data confirms that MacArthur is majority black and title 1 with that many at risk kids. It’s almost 1/2 at risk.

Sure there is no IB data yet but it’s pretty obvious that majority OOB are black and at risk since race correlates closely with SES in this town.

There is no way that MacArthur is going to be any kind of top performing school with such a large percentage of at risk kids who likely have siblings that will be pulled into the school. No way unless the school uses a large portion of its resources to support these kids.

I'm sorry, are you the same poster who said "data is data"? This is not data.

Race isn't such a surefire proxy for SES. For example, Shepherd Elementary, a Deal feeder, is 47% black, 7% at risk, and 64% IB.

Shepherd is the outlier in that the UMC black families congregate there but in the rest of the city, race does correlate with SES.

The only other small area of town that might be an outlier is Hillcrest.

But above are 2 small sections of the city. Everywhere else everyone knows race correlates with SES.

Absolutely not. I live in the middle of the city (ward 2 school and ward 5 house) and I have many UMC black friends. Ivy grads, professors, etc. Mostly new residents, not generational DC people, who want a good enough school but don't want to send their kids to an overwhelming white school (to avoid racism).

Make more black friends. Race DOES NOT correlate with SES

Wow. That's a strikingly poor understanding of what correlation is. It's a mathematical/statistical term that measures how closely two things track each other. In DC, white and high SES are highly correlated. That the correlation is different between black and high SES is statement of a statistical property of the data rather than any sort of judgmental statement towards high SES black families or your friends. It's really unrelated to high SES black families at all and rather a reflection of the relative absence of low SES white families and how that translates to average measures of the different demographic populations.

Would love to see this data you keep referring to while citing your anecdotal experience. My guess is data would show that both white/high SES and black/low SES are correlated but that white/high SES is much more highly correlated than black/low SES is. The degree of correlation differs, probably even more significantly so when you're talking about families opting into schools with desirable characteristics.

NP. I don’t get why a few people are trying to dispute this. In this town, of course white is correlated with high SES and black is correlated with low SES. Just because your black family is the exception or you know a black family that is doesn’t mean it disputes the data.

I would argue the degree of correlation is greater in black and low SES. There are no poor whites in this town. All the low, poor SES families are black.

The whole point is that while this is true in the aggregate it's actually not that useful for assessing trends at any one particular school where other interrelated variables (location, PARCC scores, attendance rate, violence, etc) are at play. Yes, there are a lot of poor black students in DC. There is also a big-enough contingent of MC and UMC black families in DC to skew those demographics at more desirable schools.

Maybe, but are there enough at-risk in the MA (or combined MA plus J-R) area to account for the title 1 status? It feels like those MC & UMC black families you reference aren't the full story for the current MA student body and that it's drawing significantly from other wards. Sorry for bending this back to the original topic The discussion was about who's at MA now, where it's likely headed once Hardy fully sends to MA starting next year, and how quickly that might percolate through the school.

I don't think we have enough information to know yet. % OOB, % OOB by race, and % OOB by SES is all pure speculation at this point. Based on what we see at some charter and application high schools it's not outside the realm of possibilities that a sizeable number of MC and UMC families will opt or have already opted to attend MacArthur from OOB.

It would make no sense for Capitol Hill families to make a 40 to 50 minute trek to MA when they can just send their kid to Stuart Hobson down the street which has similar at risk percentages.

In addition SH has more extensive curriculum offerings, better facilities, and after school options.

Sorry error was thinking about middle school and not high school. But no, I would not make that long of a commute for a new, untested school with such limited offerings.

Definitely a rough commute from Ward 6. More reasonable from somewhere like Ward 2 (students IB for Cardozo).

[Anonymous]

The delta comment is ignorant/wrong.

[Anonymous]

Hardy is increasing in boundary. It’s about 70%. The remaining 30% aren’t newly arrived kids but kids who lotteried in to, say, Key from another ES and this attended a Ward 3 elementary for some time. This is why hardy is about 92% feeder school. Once Hardy starts filling MacArthur, with some additions from kids who leave Burke for eg bc that HS sucks, and kids who lottery in from Deal bc JR is too big, or Oyster-Adams bc they don’t need dual language, it will shift. It will take time. But there are moves to
1. Build a private bus network to pickup from elementary feeders;
2. Partner with AU and Georgetown for over-under classes and hub opportunities.
It will be a small, not athletically oriented (like walls!) academically focused neighborhood HS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hardy is increasing in boundary. It’s about 70%. The remaining 30% aren’t newly arrived kids but kids who lotteried in to, say, Key from another ES and this attended a Ward 3 elementary for some time. This is why hardy is about 92% feeder school. Once Hardy starts filling MacArthur, with some additions from kids who leave Burke for eg bc that HS sucks, and kids who lottery in from Deal bc JR is too big, or Oyster-Adams bc they don’t need dual language, it will shift. It will take time. But there are moves to
1. Build a private bus network to pickup from elementary feeders;
2. Partner with AU and Georgetown for over-under classes and hub opportunities.
It will be a small, not athletically oriented (like walls!) academically focused neighborhood HS.

Exactly this. As a current Hardy family we are very optimistic and excited for MacArthur. Hopefully transportation options will improve but that is our only concern.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most of the OOB is coming from JR feeder. Some from Oyster-Adams.

I don’t think so since the majority of OOB are black

Like there are no IB Black kids at JR. SMH.

Never said that and there might be a few but MacArthur is majority black and a title 1 school so majority of black kids are not IB for JR. Data is data and not anecdotal or just because you know a family here and there.

I’ve already asked this question earlier on this thread but no one answered - can you please advise what official resource I can see this information at about MacArthur, e.g the title 1 status and demographics?

NP. I think the "all black kids are OOB" claim for either school is ridiculous and I know of no data that OSSE/DCPS publishes that you could even infer that from. But with respect to the data we do have:

The just released SY23-24 enrollment audit (here: https://osse.dc.gov/node/1720871)

JR: 556 black students (28%) and 557 at-risk students (28%)

MacArthur: 135 black students (57%) and 98 at-risk students (41%)

I don't know a ton about Title 1 eligibility but that at-risk percentage is in line with other schools with Title 1 status.

The only data we have on IB participation rates is from this document (here: https://dme.dc.gov/page/sy2021-22-public-school-enrollments-dcps-boundary) from SY21-22, which is obviously missing MacArthur and definitely does not break down by race or at-risk status. But:

Deal: 78% of students IB (306 students OOB)

Hardy: 62% of students IB (294 students OOB)

Wilson: 64% of students IB (738 students OOB)

So data confirms that MacArthur is majority black and title 1 with that many at risk kids. It’s almost 1/2 at risk.

Sure there is no IB data yet but it’s pretty obvious that majority OOB are black and at risk since race correlates closely with SES in this town.

There is no way that MacArthur is going to be any kind of top performing school with such a large percentage of at risk kids who likely have siblings that will be pulled into the school. No way unless the school uses a large portion of its resources to support these kids.

I'm sorry, are you the same poster who said "data is data"? This is not data.

Race isn't such a surefire proxy for SES. For example, Shepherd Elementary, a Deal feeder, is 47% black, 7% at risk, and 64% IB.

Shepherd is the outlier in that the UMC black families congregate there but in the rest of the city, race does correlate with SES.

The only other small area of town that might be an outlier is Hillcrest.

But above are 2 small sections of the city. Everywhere else everyone knows race correlates with SES.

Absolutely not. I live in the middle of the city (ward 2 school and ward 5 house) and I have many UMC black friends. Ivy grads, professors, etc. Mostly new residents, not generational DC people, who want a good enough school but don't want to send their kids to an overwhelming white school (to avoid racism).

Make more black friends. Race DOES NOT correlate with SES

Wow. That's a strikingly poor understanding of what correlation is. It's a mathematical/statistical term that measures how closely two things track each other. In DC, white and high SES are highly correlated. That the correlation is different between black and high SES is statement of a statistical property of the data rather than any sort of judgmental statement towards high SES black families or your friends. It's really unrelated to high SES black families at all and rather a reflection of the relative absence of low SES white families and how that translates to average measures of the different demographic populations.

Would love to see this data you keep referring to while citing your anecdotal experience. My guess is data would show that both white/high SES and black/low SES are correlated but that white/high SES is much more highly correlated than black/low SES is. The degree of correlation differs, probably even more significantly so when you're talking about families opting into schools with desirable characteristics.

NP. I don’t get why a few people are trying to dispute this. In this town, of course white is correlated with high SES and black is correlated with low SES. Just because your black family is the exception or you know a black family that is doesn’t mean it disputes the data.

I would argue the degree of correlation is greater in black and low SES. There are no poor whites in this town. All the low, poor SES families are black.

The whole point is that while this is true in the aggregate it's actually not that useful for assessing trends at any one particular school where other interrelated variables (location, PARCC scores, attendance rate, violence, etc) are at play. Yes, there are a lot of poor black students in DC. There is also a big-enough contingent of MC and UMC black families in DC to skew those demographics at more desirable schools.

No, not really. If you look at the percentage of black students and at risk, the delta is usually no more then 10% so it is not a big contingent at all of the overall population.

Also note that DC defines at risk as homeless, foster care or in TANF which is very restrictive. There are many black families who don’t fit this category and who make less then 80k and are lower SES. They likely make up a lot of that 10% difference.

I was curious if this "delta is usually no more than 10%" was true. Looking at the latest enrollment audit, there are 236 schools where we have data for black students and at-risk students.

63 of those schools (27%) have a delta of 10% or less (7 of these have a black population <10% and 31 others have a negative delta - mostly schools with big hispanic populations)

41 of those schools (17%) actually have a delta of 30% or more

Schools of particular interest to this conversation:

MacArthur is 41% at risk, 57% black (15% delta)

JR is 28% at risk, 28% black (0% delta)

Hardy is 13% at risk, 30% black (17% delta)

Deal is 10% at risk, 22% black (12% delta)

Sojourner Truth is 40% at risk, 62% black (22% delta)

McKinley is 35% at risk, 83% black (48% delta)

Duke Ellington is 30% at risk, 65% black (35% delta)

Banneker is 25% at risk, 70% black (45% delta)

DCI is 19% at risk, 26% black (7% delta)

Latin HS is 15% at risk, 37% black (23% delta)

SWW is 11% at risk, 25% black (14% delta)

BASIS is 9% at risk, 19% black (10% delta)

[Anonymous]

MacArtuhr's at risk population is that high??

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Most of the OOB is coming from JR feeder. Some from Oyster-Adams.

I don’t think so since the majority of OOB are black

Like there are no IB Black kids at JR. SMH.

Never said that and there might be a few but MacArthur is majority black and a title 1 school so majority of black kids are not IB for JR. Data is data and not anecdotal or just because you know a family here and there.

I’ve already asked this question earlier on this thread but no one answered - can you please advise what official resource I can see this information at about MacArthur, e.g the title 1 status and demographics?

NP. I think the "all black kids are OOB" claim for either school is ridiculous and I know of no data that OSSE/DCPS publishes that you could even infer that from. But with respect to the data we do have:

The just released SY23-24 enrollment audit (here: https://osse.dc.gov/node/1720871)

JR: 556 black students (28%) and 557 at-risk students (28%)

MacArthur: 135 black students (57%) and 98 at-risk students (41%)

I don't know a ton about Title 1 eligibility but that at-risk percentage is in line with other schools with Title 1 status.

The only data we have on IB participation rates is from this document (here: https://dme.dc.gov/page/sy2021-22-public-school-enrollments-dcps-boundary) from SY21-22, which is obviously missing MacArthur and definitely does not break down by race or at-risk status. But:

Deal: 78% of students IB (306 students OOB)

Hardy: 62% of students IB (294 students OOB)

Wilson: 64% of students IB (738 students OOB)

So data confirms that MacArthur is majority black and title 1 with that many at risk kids. It’s almost 1/2 at risk.

Sure there is no IB data yet but it’s pretty obvious that majority OOB are black and at risk since race correlates closely with SES in this town.

There is no way that MacArthur is going to be any kind of top performing school with such a large percentage of at risk kids who likely have siblings that will be pulled into the school. No way unless the school uses a large portion of its resources to support these kids.

I'm sorry, are you the same poster who said "data is data"? This is not data.

Race isn't such a surefire proxy for SES. For example, Shepherd Elementary, a Deal feeder, is 47% black, 7% at risk, and 64% IB.

Shepherd is the outlier in that the UMC black families congregate there but in the rest of the city, race does correlate with SES.

The only other small area of town that might be an outlier is Hillcrest.

But above are 2 small sections of the city. Everywhere else everyone knows race correlates with SES.

Absolutely not. I live in the middle of the city (ward 2 school and ward 5 house) and I have many UMC black friends. Ivy grads, professors, etc. Mostly new residents, not generational DC people, who want a good enough school but don't want to send their kids to an overwhelming white school (to avoid racism).

Make more black friends. Race DOES NOT correlate with SES

Wow. That's a strikingly poor understanding of what correlation is. It's a mathematical/statistical term that measures how closely two things track each other. In DC, white and high SES are highly correlated. That the correlation is different between black and high SES is statement of a statistical property of the data rather than any sort of judgmental statement towards high SES black families or your friends. It's really unrelated to high SES black families at all and rather a reflection of the relative absence of low SES white families and how that translates to average measures of the different demographic populations.

Would love to see this data you keep referring to while citing your anecdotal experience. My guess is data would show that both white/high SES and black/low SES are correlated but that white/high SES is much more highly correlated than black/low SES is. The degree of correlation differs, probably even more significantly so when you're talking about families opting into schools with desirable characteristics.

NP. I don’t get why a few people are trying to dispute this. In this town, of course white is correlated with high SES and black is correlated with low SES. Just because your black family is the exception or you know a black family that is doesn’t mean it disputes the data.

I would argue the degree of correlation is greater in black and low SES. There are no poor whites in this town. All the low, poor SES families are black.

The whole point is that while this is true in the aggregate it's actually not that useful for assessing trends at any one particular school where other interrelated variables (location, PARCC scores, attendance rate, violence, etc) are at play. Yes, there are a lot of poor black students in DC. There is also a big-enough contingent of MC and UMC black families in DC to skew those demographics at more desirable schools.

No, not really. If you look at the percentage of black students and at risk, the delta is usually no more then 10% so it is not a big contingent at all of the overall population.

Also note that DC defines at risk as homeless, foster care or in TANF which is very restrictive. There are many black families who don’t fit this category and who make less then 80k and are lower SES. They likely make up a lot of that 10% difference.

I was curious if this "delta is usually no more than 10%" was true. Looking at the latest enrollment audit, there are 236 schools where we have data for black students and at-risk students.

63 of those schools (27%) have a delta of 10% or less (7 of these have a black population <10% and 31 others have a negative delta - mostly schools with big hispanic populations)

41 of those schools (17%) actually have a delta of 30% or more

Schools of particular interest to this conversation:

MacArthur is 41% at risk, 57% black (15% delta)

JR is 28% at risk, 28% black (0% delta)

Hardy is 13% at risk, 30% black (17% delta)

Deal is 10% at risk, 22% black (12% delta)

Sojourner Truth is 40% at risk, 62% black (22% delta)

McKinley is 35% at risk, 83% black (48% delta)

Duke Ellington is 30% at risk, 65% black (35% delta)

Banneker is 25% at risk, 70% black (45% delta)

DCI is 19% at risk, 26% black (7% delta)

Latin HS is 15% at risk, 37% black (23% delta)

SWW is 11% at risk, 25% black (14% delta)

BASIS is 9% at risk, 19% black (10% delta)

DP. I think "delta" poster was suggesting that subtracting % at-risk from % black would give % MC/UMC black (rather than suggesting 10% was some magic delta). Regardless, if that data above is correct I think your stats (particularly J-R) show that's not the case since there are clearly MC/UMC black families at J-R. While at-risk my not include a lot of white, it's not all black.

"delta" poster did offer the other point that not all lower SES show up in the at-risk stats. intuitively that seems likely, however a lower SES family prioritizing education to make the sacrifice logistically to get to MA also intuitively feels like it might be an asset

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:MacArtuhr's at risk population is that high??

It’s very high, the highest in the whole batch

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MacArtuhr's at risk population is that high??

It’s very high, the highest in the whole batch

It’s also a very, very small sample size and a school in its first year. Add salt.

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Anonymous wrote:Most of the OOB is coming from JR feeder. Some from Oyster-Adams.

I don’t think so since the majority of OOB are black

Like there are no IB Black kids at JR. SMH.

Never said that and there might be a few but MacArthur is majority black and a title 1 school so majority of black kids are not IB for JR. Data is data and not anecdotal or just because you know a family here and there.

I’ve already asked this question earlier on this thread but no one answered - can you please advise what official resource I can see this information at about MacArthur, e.g the title 1 status and demographics?

NP. I think the "all black kids are OOB" claim for either school is ridiculous and I know of no data that OSSE/DCPS publishes that you could even infer that from. But with respect to the data we do have:

The just released SY23-24 enrollment audit (here: https://osse.dc.gov/node/1720871)

JR: 556 black students (28%) and 557 at-risk students (28%)

MacArthur: 135 black students (57%) and 98 at-risk students (41%)

I don't know a ton about Title 1 eligibility but that at-risk percentage is in line with other schools with Title 1 status.

The only data we have on IB participation rates is from this document (here: https://dme.dc.gov/page/sy2021-22-public-school-enrollments-dcps-boundary) from SY21-22, which is obviously missing MacArthur and definitely does not break down by race or at-risk status. But:

Deal: 78% of students IB (306 students OOB)

Hardy: 62% of students IB (294 students OOB)

Wilson: 64% of students IB (738 students OOB)

So data confirms that MacArthur is majority black and title 1 with that many at risk kids. It’s almost 1/2 at risk.

Sure there is no IB data yet but it’s pretty obvious that majority OOB are black and at risk since race correlates closely with SES in this town.

There is no way that MacArthur is going to be any kind of top performing school with such a large percentage of at risk kids who likely have siblings that will be pulled into the school. No way unless the school uses a large portion of its resources to support these kids.

I'm sorry, are you the same poster who said "data is data"? This is not data.

Race isn't such a surefire proxy for SES. For example, Shepherd Elementary, a Deal feeder, is 47% black, 7% at risk, and 64% IB.

Shepherd is the outlier in that the UMC black families congregate there but in the rest of the city, race does correlate with SES.

The only other small area of town that might be an outlier is Hillcrest.

But above are 2 small sections of the city. Everywhere else everyone knows race correlates with SES.

Absolutely not. I live in the middle of the city (ward 2 school and ward 5 house) and I have many UMC black friends. Ivy grads, professors, etc. Mostly new residents, not generational DC people, who want a good enough school but don't want to send their kids to an overwhelming white school (to avoid racism).

Make more black friends. Race DOES NOT correlate with SES

Wow. That's a strikingly poor understanding of what correlation is. It's a mathematical/statistical term that measures how closely two things track each other. In DC, white and high SES are highly correlated. That the correlation is different between black and high SES is statement of a statistical property of the data rather than any sort of judgmental statement towards high SES black families or your friends. It's really unrelated to high SES black families at all and rather a reflection of the relative absence of low SES white families and how that translates to average measures of the different demographic populations.

Would love to see this data you keep referring to while citing your anecdotal experience. My guess is data would show that both white/high SES and black/low SES are correlated but that white/high SES is much more highly correlated than black/low SES is. The degree of correlation differs, probably even more significantly so when you're talking about families opting into schools with desirable characteristics.

NP. I don’t get why a few people are trying to dispute this. In this town, of course white is correlated with high SES and black is correlated with low SES. Just because your black family is the exception or you know a black family that is doesn’t mean it disputes the data.

I would argue the degree of correlation is greater in black and low SES. There are no poor whites in this town. All the low, poor SES families are black.

The whole point is that while this is true in the aggregate it's actually not that useful for assessing trends at any one particular school where other interrelated variables (location, PARCC scores, attendance rate, violence, etc) are at play. Yes, there are a lot of poor black students in DC. There is also a big-enough contingent of MC and UMC black families in DC to skew those demographics at more desirable schools.

No, not really. If you look at the percentage of black students and at risk, the delta is usually no more then 10% so it is not a big contingent at all of the overall population.

Also note that DC defines at risk as homeless, foster care or in TANF which is very restrictive. There are many black families who don’t fit this category and who make less then 80k and are lower SES. They likely make up a lot of that 10% difference.

I was curious if this "delta is usually no more than 10%" was true. Looking at the latest enrollment audit, there are 236 schools where we have data for black students and at-risk students.

63 of those schools (27%) have a delta of 10% or less (7 of these have a black population <10% and 31 others have a negative delta - mostly schools with big hispanic populations)

41 of those schools (17%) actually have a delta of 30% or more

Schools of particular interest to this conversation:

MacArthur is 41% at risk, 57% black (15% delta)

JR is 28% at risk, 28% black (0% delta)

Hardy is 13% at risk, 30% black (17% delta)

Deal is 10% at risk, 22% black (12% delta)

Sojourner Truth is 40% at risk, 62% black (22% delta)

McKinley is 35% at risk, 83% black (48% delta)

Duke Ellington is 30% at risk, 65% black (35% delta)

Banneker is 25% at risk, 70% black (45% delta)

DCI is 19% at risk, 26% black (7% delta)

Latin HS is 15% at risk, 37% black (23% delta)

SWW is 11% at risk, 25% black (14% delta)

BASIS is 9% at risk, 19% black (10% delta)

DP. I think "delta" poster was suggesting that subtracting % at-risk from % black would give % MC/UMC black (rather than suggesting 10% was some magic delta). Regardless, if that data above is correct I think your stats (particularly J-R) show that's not the case since there are clearly MC/UMC black families at J-R. While at-risk my not include a lot of white, it's not all black.

"delta" poster did offer the other point that not all lower SES show up in the at-risk stats. intuitively that seems likely, however a lower SES family prioritizing education to make the sacrifice logistically to get to MA also intuitively feels like it might be an asset

The "10% delta" comment was meant to bolster their argument that there are no DCPS schools with big UMC or MC black families. But in fact less than a third of schools fit that criteria, and over half of that number are schools where either it's impossible to hit a 10% delta (because the school is <10% black) or where the delta is negative because other demographics are driving the at risk %.

I don't think it's a great method to get at where black MC and UMC families send their students (see some of the confounding factors above). It was interesting though - when I ordered by largest to smallest delta and filtered out schools that were 90%+ black, basically everything that popped was the schools most commonly discussed on this forum. In retrospect I guess that's not so crazy since it's basically just a measure of schools with low(er) at risk percentages and some degree of diversity.

[Anonymous]

Not to derail an interesting side conversation, but did anyone see what DCPS was saying about the planned construction/expansion of Macarthur?

[Anonymous]

I think Macarthur just made another batch of offers - my WL number dropped from 70s to 50s.