Deferral -- managing expectations

[Anonymous]

DD was deferred from her dream school from a strong feeder school to that university. In the scattergram, she falls at the very top of the graph for this school with a 35 ACT and 4.4 GPA. Usually about 4-5 students are admitted to this school every year, and this year there were 2 or maybe 3 who were admitted in the early round (one recruited athlete and two legacy status). We are being told that the university is shifting admitted slots away from early to regular decision this year and she attributes the smaller numbers to that. She expects more regular admissions to follow. Many were denied and a couple other deferrals in her class. Counselor says she is strongest student who was deferred in her class and she has been in contact with the admissions counselor strongly supporting her. FWIW, she has an older brother who attended the school.

She got into another top school which would be absolutely fine and that so many would love to be in her shoes. I am trying to manage expectations, but the counselor is being so positive about her chances that I don't think what I say makes any impact. I've been sending her fun Instagram posts from the other school she was admitted to hoping she will grow to love it.

I don't know what else to do at this point except to support her and help her craft a strong LOCI. This is all new to me. My older child got in the EA round and we were done in December. It is hard to stay positive and manage expectations at the same time. When I look at this situation from a pure numbers standpoint, it seems likely she would get in, but earlier this year, we were told she would get in the early round, and here we are. I am reading that typically about 10-15% of deferrals are ultimately admitted. I guess that is somewhat promising, considering her specific situation.

[Anonymous]

My high stats kid was deferred ED from a top SLAC and then was admitted in the RD round. We, too, were told by her counselor (an alum of the school who had actually worked in admissions there at one point) that she was likely to be accepted early. Don't lose hope.

[Anonymous]

“It is hard to stay positive and manage expectations at the same time.”

You can do this OP. And so can your kid. My guess is that your kid is handling this just fine. Hunker down and support her as she finishes up the applications for regular decision. By the end of January, make sure she sent the one-page LOCI with some updates to accomplishments/activities since Nov 1.

Then it’s just a waiting game. Help her stay both busy and focused on finishing senior year strong. All will be revealed in March. The most important thing to remember is that she will land at a great school. It might be the ED school and it might not be. But it all works out.

[Anonymous]

This certainly seems more plausible than most deferrals, but if it were a sure thing, she would already be in. I think you’re doing a good job balancing hope and reality in a difficult situation.

[Anonymous]

Welcome to the real world, OP. Neither you nor she were guaranteed admission regardless of being in a so-called "feeder" school.

[Anonymous]

Move on. Get excited about actual acceptances.

[Anonymous]

I assume you mean the HS’ college counselor is the one who told her that the university is shifting admitted slots away from early to regular decision this year and she attributes the smaller numbers to that and that she expects more regular admissions to follow.

My first question would be to ask the CC: is this a best guess or based on something (a communication) directly from the college?

Then, I’d look at my kid’s ECs, awards, impact, leadership, etc. and then discuss them with my kid (esp in light of the school’s CDS). You seem to be exclusively relying on GPA and SAT testing.

Third, I would see if the Scattergrams data doesn’t give a full picture. For example, in FCPS Scattergrams gives the GPA and SAT only. If a kid went TO or used the ACT, you don’t have that data. That means a kid with a high GPA, a 1250 SAT may be green checked as admitted but we wouldn’t know he used a 36 ACT for his application.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I assume you mean the HS’ college counselor is the one who told her that the university is shifting admitted slots away from early to regular decision this year and she attributes the smaller numbers to that and that she expects more regular admissions to follow.

My first question would be to ask the CC: is this a best guess or based on something (a communication) directly from the college?

Then, I’d look at my kid’s ECs, awards, impact, leadership, etc. and then discuss them with my kid (esp in light of the school’s CDS). You seem to be exclusively relying on GPA and SAT testing.

Third, I would see if the Scattergrams data doesn’t give a full picture. For example, in FCPS Scattergrams gives the GPA and SAT only. If a kid went TO or used the ACT, you don’t have that data. That means a kid with a high GPA, a 1250 SAT may be green checked as admitted but we wouldn’t know he used a 36 ACT for his application.

OP here. In terms of her ECs, they fall very much in line with the university's priorities. She is a very strong fit.

With regard to the scattergrams, we use Scoir, which gives both SAT and ACT scores but also indicates whether a student applied test optional. FWIW, in the past four years, there were four deferrals. One of them turned into an acceptance. All four deferrals were way below DD's stats, even the one that was accepted.

The CC got the information on the shift from REA to RD from the Admissions Officer at the college. They had a long conversation about the situation with the deferrals, and in particular my daughter.

[Anonymous]

The staying positive part doesn’t mean stay positive she will get in to Dream School in RD. It means to stay positive she will wind up somewhere she will love and thrive.

That’s how to stay positive and manage expectations.

[Anonymous]

I would just caution you from putting too much weight on the power of the regional admissions rep to swing the decision. We were in your position last year and a regional rep at an Ivy was talking to our CC about our kid for months and really going to bat for our child. However, a regional rep only has so much influence. They do not make the admissions decision--that is done by committee and can be vetoed by another member, especially if the other member is senior, etc. There are office politics in admission committees just like there are everywhere.

We held on to a lot of false hope in this scenario because of how much communication our school was receiving from the university and it ended up not working out in the end.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The staying positive part doesn’t mean stay positive she will get in to Dream School in RD. It means to stay positive she will wind up somewhere she will love and thrive.

That’s how to stay positive and manage expectations.

This. All of it.

[Anonymous]

Honestly I’d focus on the other top school she got into and frame it as let’s see what options are available in RD. I wouldn’t focus on her ED school any longer other than if you get in you’ll have great decisions to make. Really all these top schools have the same outcomes career wise and hopefully the schools she applied to will be good social fits.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I would just caution you from putting too much weight on the power of the regional admissions rep to swing the decision. We were in your position last year and a regional rep at an Ivy was talking to our CC about our kid for months and really going to bat for our child. However, a regional rep only has so much influence. They do not make the admissions decision--that is done by committee and can be vetoed by another member, especially if the other member is senior, etc. There are office politics in admission committees just like there are everywhere.

We held on to a lot of false hope in this scenario because of how much communication our school was receiving from the university and it ended up not working out in the end.

💯 agree w/this

[Anonymous]

Those sound like good odds. 1 of 4 = 25% = better than typical for sure. Given that your DD’s stats are better than theirs, she probably has even better odds. Maybe even 33% or 50%.

But even that still means 50 -75% chance of not getting in. And to be clear, this is no guarantee they will take someone from your high school. Past performance does not guarantee future results ….

This is how DH and I are maintaining perspective. Our DC seems to be in a similar spot as yours, according to the data from our high school and it’s history with her ED school.

But though better than average, those odds are still not good. Certainly not enough to count on.

And of course there is ENDLESS uncertainty and unpredictability in this process.

Your (or our) DD’s ED school may already have admitted enough or too many “students like her” in the ED round (whatever that means - pick among the many demographics or ways to describe her) or may have fewer spots for “students like her” this year because they’ve chosen to prioritize something else (again, whatever “students like her” means to the school.)

Or their priorities could have shifted a bit. The school could be seeking fewer kids in her major this year and more in a different major … or they may need to cut some girls at the last minute in order to balance the class the way they want … or they could decide they want more private or public school kids from your area than usual this year and it could cut against her instead of for her this time … or they could decide to accept more international students in order to hit that target, knowing there’s a risk that more than usual could decline or drop out due to the yet-to-be-determined Trump chaos of the day … and on and on.

THIS is how DH and I are managing expectations. There is only so much in our control. After that, it is a lottery … as we’ve always recognized (but need to remind ourselves of regularly.)

As for DD, we’re not trying to manage her expectations - or her as a person - at all at this point.

She’s a smart, mature kid who knows the statistics and understands what they mean. (Better odds than average/ typical still aren’t actually good in this case.)

She also knows that so very much of this is beyond her/our control. A bunch of AOs in a room or on a Zoom will decide on her application for a second time in Feb/March based on criteria we will never know.

This is life. And DD will think and feel how she thinks and feels.

No doubt her emotions, outlook, and attention to this issue will fluctuate all over the place in the next three months. That’s normal, and she’ll learn that she can cope with high stakes (to her) uncertainty and in the end make the very best of whatever the outcome turns out to be.

In the meantime, we’re loving and empathetic listeners. It’s not our job to tell her (an almost 18 year old) how to think or feel. We absolutely empathize (we’re riding this roller coaster, too) but we are keeping our thoughts to ourselves and allowing her to engage this as she chooses. We’re 100% certain she’ll be ok, no matter the outcome.

GL. I know it’s hard. It really is!! 💗

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I assume you mean the HS’ college counselor is the one who told her that the university is shifting admitted slots away from early to regular decision this year and she attributes the smaller numbers to that and that she expects more regular admissions to follow.

My first question would be to ask the CC: is this a best guess or based on something (a communication) directly from the college?

Then, I’d look at my kid’s ECs, awards, impact, leadership, etc. and then discuss them with my kid (esp in light of the school’s CDS). You seem to be exclusively relying on GPA and SAT testing.

Third, I would see if the Scattergrams data doesn’t give a full picture. For example, in FCPS Scattergrams gives the GPA and SAT only. If a kid went TO or used the ACT, you don’t have that data. That means a kid with a high GPA, a 1250 SAT may be green checked as admitted but we wouldn’t know he used a 36 ACT for his application.

OP here. In terms of her ECs, they fall very much in line with the university's priorities. She is a very strong fit.

With regard to the scattergrams, we use Scoir, which gives both SAT and ACT scores but also indicates whether a student applied test optional. FWIW, in the past four years, there were four deferrals. One of them turned into an acceptance. All four deferrals were way below DD's stats, even the one that was accepted.

The CC got the information on the shift from REA to RD from the Admissions Officer at the college. They had a long conversation about the situation with the deferrals, and in particular my daughter.

Not sure why you are soliciting info from DCURBAN when you have this info purportedly from the CC who spoke directly to the college. Either you trust the CC or don’t…and by “trust” I mean believe in likelihoods not absolutes. Good luck