Making sense of MCPS regional program transportation

[Anonymous]

Spinoff from the other thread. Can folks help make sense of what MCPS is thinking as far as transportation?

In this presentation on slide 90 they are assuming only 3 buses come to each school in year one, presumably one from each of the other schools, for a total of 12 for the 4-school region. This matches with the rumor that you will have to get yourself to your local HS on your own to catch a bus to a regional program (has anyone heard official confirmation of that?) https://go.boarddocs.com/mabe/mcpsmd/Board.nsf/files/DMJHXR4AA9BD/$file/Boundary%20Studies%20Program%20Analysis%20Update%20251016%20PPT%20REV.pdf

But then it looks like they are assuming that they will use 8 less buses one the previous local routes so it will only take 4 new buses? That doesn't make sense to me.

And then this is all just year 1, right, so it would cost 4 times more by the time it's fully implemented?

Please correct me if anyone understands this better or has additional info.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Spinoff from the other thread. Can folks help make sense of what MCPS is thinking as far as transportation?

In this presentation on slide 90 they are assuming only 3 buses come to each school in year one, presumably one from each of the other schools, for a total of 12 for the 4-school region. This matches with the rumor that you will have to get yourself to your local HS on your own to catch a bus to a regional program (has anyone heard official confirmation of that?) https://go.boarddocs.com/mabe/mcpsmd/Board.nsf/files/DMJHXR4AA9BD/$file/Boundary%20Studies%20Program%20Analysis%20Update%20251016%20PPT%20REV.pdf

But then it looks like they are assuming that they will use 8 less buses one the previous local routes so it will only take 4 new buses? That doesn't make sense to me.

And then this is all just year 1, right, so it would cost 4 times more by the time it's fully implemented?

Please correct me if anyone understands this better or has additional info.

They think that canceling buses that service the DCC and NEC, plus countywide magnet buses will offset the additional routes needed for program students. But they haven't showed if that's true.

Also? In one of the summer presentations, they estimated the cost of a bus route at at $100,00 annually. Then in October they said the cost of running a bus route is $50,000. No explanation for that change. My best guess is they were lying.

[Anonymous]

It looks like they are assuming that the increased need for buses for regional programs will be almost canceled out by savings from those kids not riding buses on current routes. Like for example of the 135 freshmen going to programs at Rockville, 122 would need buses (3 buses total) but then there would be 95 less kids who need buses to their home school so there would only be 27 new kids who need buses which means they only need one additional bus.

That can't be right, can it? Like, even if the "95 less riders on local school routes" thing is true (seems low to me-- they seem to be assuming that 80% of kids at all schools ride buses rather than walk which seems high), don't the buses still need to run the same routes to pick up those kids' neighbors anyway? Unless there are generally multiple buses serving the same neighborhoods and so decreasing ridership really does mean they could cut back from, say, 3 to 2 or 2 to 1 buses running basically the same routes?

[Anonymous]

I wonder how it will work during the first few years, when they will need to keep existing bus routes for DCC, NEC, and magnet students in addition to these new routes. Are they accounting for that during the transition years?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I wonder how it will work during the first few years, when they will need to keep existing bus routes for DCC, NEC, and magnet students in addition to these new routes. Are they accounting for that during the transition years?

That's a good point except if they plan to pull those students and force them back to their home schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I wonder how it will work during the first few years, when they will need to keep existing bus routes for DCC, NEC, and magnet students in addition to these new routes. Are they accounting for that during the transition years?

That's a good point except if they plan to pull those students and force them back to their home schools.

They promised they would let everyone stay at their programs/consortium school through graduation, so it would be a big betrayal to go back on that.

They've said several times that transportation costs will go up during the transition years but then claim costs will be lower afterwards. Personally, I think they're just saying that in an effort to avoid criticism for the higher transportation costs in the next few years, and then figure that no one will be paying attention enough to realize they were wrong about the costs in 2030 and beyond. (If they want people to really believe that, they need to show their work on how it will be cheaper.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I wonder how it will work during the first few years, when they will need to keep existing bus routes for DCC, NEC, and magnet students in addition to these new routes. Are they accounting for that during the transition years?

That's a good point except if they plan to pull those students and force them back to their home schools.

They promised they would let everyone stay at their programs/consortium school through graduation, so it would be a big betrayal to go back on that.

They've said several times that transportation costs will go up during the transition years but then claim costs will be lower afterwards. Personally, I think they're just saying that in an effort to avoid criticism for the higher transportation costs in the next few years, and then figure that no one will be paying attention enough to realize they were wrong about the costs in 2030 and beyond. (If they want people to really believe that, they need to show their work on how it will be cheaper.)

I wouldn't trust anything they say. They have been screaming no extra money for years and got a huge increase this year. Where is this money coming from?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I wonder how it will work during the first few years, when they will need to keep existing bus routes for DCC, NEC, and magnet students in addition to these new routes. Are they accounting for that during the transition years?

That's a good point except if they plan to pull those students and force them back to their home schools.

They promised they would let everyone stay at their programs/consortium school through graduation, so it would be a big betrayal to go back on that.

They've said several times that transportation costs will go up during the transition years but then claim costs will be lower afterwards. Personally, I think they're just saying that in an effort to avoid criticism for the higher transportation costs in the next few years, and then figure that no one will be paying attention enough to realize they were wrong about the costs in 2030 and beyond. (If they want people to really believe that, they need to show their work on how it will be cheaper.)

I wouldn't trust anything they say. They have been screaming no extra money for years and got a huge increase this year. Where is this money coming from?

Check out your property tax bill record after the pandemic, and run an exponential extrapolation to estimate what you are expected to pay in the next few years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I wonder how it will work during the first few years, when they will need to keep existing bus routes for DCC, NEC, and magnet students in addition to these new routes. Are they accounting for that during the transition years?

That's a good point except if they plan to pull those students and force them back to their home schools.

They promised they would let everyone stay at their programs/consortium school through graduation, so it would be a big betrayal to go back on that.

They've said several times that transportation costs will go up during the transition years but then claim costs will be lower afterwards. Personally, I think they're just saying that in an effort to avoid criticism for the higher transportation costs in the next few years, and then figure that no one will be paying attention enough to realize they were wrong about the costs in 2030 and beyond. (If they want people to really believe that, they need to show their work on how it will be cheaper.)

+1
This is what I think, too.

[Anonymous]

My kid’s DCC bus only has FIVE students. My kid is a freshman. I do not for a second believe that MCPS will pay for a bus with that few kids on it on top of new bus routes for the new boundaries and programs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My kid’s DCC bus only has FIVE students. My kid is a freshman. I do not for a second believe that MCPS will pay for a bus with that few kids on it on top of new bus routes for the new boundaries and programs.

If both schools are in Region 1 or Region 3, then the route would still exist. But yes, if you’re going from say, Kennedy to Blair then highly doubtful that route would continue after/if this proposal goes into effect.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid’s DCC bus only has FIVE students. My kid is a freshman. I do not for a second believe that MCPS will pay for a bus with that few kids on it on top of new bus routes for the new boundaries and programs.

If both schools are in Region 1 or Region 3, then the route would still exist. But yes, if you’re going from say, Kennedy to Blair then highly doubtful that route would continue after/if this proposal goes into effect.

What makes you think routes from neighborhood stops to program schools will still exist after this change? I thought it was just supposed to be buses from your local high school to the other school the program is at?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid’s DCC bus only has FIVE students. My kid is a freshman. I do not for a second believe that MCPS will pay for a bus with that few kids on it on top of new bus routes for the new boundaries and programs.

If both schools are in Region 1 or Region 3, then the route would still exist. But yes, if you’re going from say, Kennedy to Blair then highly doubtful that route would continue after/if this proposal goes into effect.

What makes you think routes from neighborhood stops to program schools will still exist after this change? I thought it was just supposed to be buses from your local high school to the other school the program is at?

Oh, you’re right, I forgot. Yes, since they’ve proposed school-to-school buses, the route your kid uses would probably be affected.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid’s DCC bus only has FIVE students. My kid is a freshman. I do not for a second believe that MCPS will pay for a bus with that few kids on it on top of new bus routes for the new boundaries and programs.

If both schools are in Region 1 or Region 3, then the route would still exist. But yes, if you’re going from say, Kennedy to Blair then highly doubtful that route would continue after/if this proposal goes into effect.

What makes you think routes from neighborhood stops to program schools will still exist after this change? I thought it was just supposed to be buses from your local high school to the other school the program is at?

Oh, you’re right, I forgot. Yes, since they’ve proposed school-to-school buses, the route your kid uses would probably be affected.

I thought the current DCC buses would still exist until the students starting those programs next year graduate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid’s DCC bus only has FIVE students. My kid is a freshman. I do not for a second believe that MCPS will pay for a bus with that few kids on it on top of new bus routes for the new boundaries and programs.

If both schools are in Region 1 or Region 3, then the route would still exist. But yes, if you’re going from say, Kennedy to Blair then highly doubtful that route would continue after/if this proposal goes into effect.

What makes you think routes from neighborhood stops to program schools will still exist after this change? I thought it was just supposed to be buses from your local high school to the other school the program is at?

Oh, you’re right, I forgot. Yes, since they’ve proposed school-to-school buses, the route your kid uses would probably be affected.

I thought the current DCC buses would still exist until the students starting those programs next year graduate.

So until that last DCC class graduates the neighborhood transportation will essentially still be available within the DCC schools and then will be over.