With declining birth replacement rates around the world …

[Anonymous]

… is it morally/ethically right to push more social programs? Are babies born just to generate taxes for social programs that they may never live to qualify for?

As a society, we need to support each other / work together but is there a different model that can work so that babies are not just Oompa Loompas for the government?

Do politicians look at policies in terms of how many workers we have and how many workers we need to support every social policy?

[Anonymous]

The one party that has all of the power right now is very interested in pushing people to have babies.

[Anonymous]

And they are extremely uninterested in social programs.

[Anonymous]

We can import labor into the US. The fastest growing countries are third world countries. But, certain people don't want immigrants (or non white people).

Look at Japan. They need immigrants to replenish their aging population but they are too xenophobic to allow mass immigration. They'd rather let their population die out. Cut off your nose to spite your face. The US is headed in that direction under the Trump administration.

[Anonymous]

My parents lifelong Democrats always lamented population growth. Now they extol the virtues of population growth through immigration, the lack of cognitive dissonance is remarkable. I feel the only rural Democrats remaining don't have a clue what the party stands for. I remember looking through the photo books where they were protesting Nuclear power plants. Oh but it's clean energy now. Microsoft said so. Anything to beat those Republicans, anything. Came to the city you can sit out by 495 and watch all the "Democrats" perfectly happy to commute hours every day to their data center jobs from their McMansions with solar panels on top facing North.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My parents lifelong Democrats always lamented population growth. Now they extol the virtues of population growth through immigration, the lack of cognitive dissonance is remarkable. I feel the only rural Democrats remaining don't have a clue what the party stands for. I remember looking through the photo books where they were protesting Nuclear power plants. Oh but it's clean energy now. Microsoft said so. Anything to beat those Republicans, anything. Came to the city you can sit out by 495 and watch all the "Democrats" perfectly happy to commute hours every day to their data center jobs from their McMansions with solar panels on top facing North.

And Dems feel exactly the same about the perceived hypocrisy of their MAGA relatives and friends. It is what it is.

[Anonymous]

Robots and mechanization/AI will make more people less important.

[Anonymous]

I feel like the planet has more than enough people.

More is always a good thing.

[Anonymous]

More isn’t always a good thing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My parents lifelong Democrats always lamented population growth. Now they extol the virtues of population growth through immigration, the lack of cognitive dissonance is remarkable. I feel the only rural Democrats remaining don't have a clue what the party stands for. I remember looking through the photo books where they were protesting Nuclear power plants. Oh but it's clean energy now. Microsoft said so. Anything to beat those Republicans, anything. Came to the city you can sit out by 495 and watch all the "Democrats" perfectly happy to commute hours every day to their data center jobs from their McMansions with solar panels on top facing North.

And Dems feel exactly the same about the perceived hypocrisy of their MAGA relatives and friends. It is what it is.

All hypocrisy aside. Restricting immigration actually does what it's billed to do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We can import labor into the US. The fastest growing countries are third world countries. But, certain people don't want immigrants (or non white people).

Look at Japan. They need immigrants to replenish their aging population but they are too xenophobic to allow mass immigration. They'd rather let their population die out. Cut off your nose to spite your face. The US is headed in that direction under the Trump administration.

That is not a sustainable long-term strategy to maintain a stable population. Birth rates are declining pretty much everywhere and fertility rates are already below replacement level in 63% of countries. In 2050, more than 75% will be below replacement level. In 2100, 97% of counties will have below replacement level fertility rates. Immigration is not a viable solution to prevent population decline anymore. Only increasing birth rates or medical advances that boost lifespan/slow aging will save us from a demographic crisis.

[Anonymous]

On a country level immigration can work, although most countries are bad at it. But this is a global trend, birth rates are collapsing everywhere. Even in high fertility countries birth rates are dropping at a historically unprecedented pace.

Something most don’t realize is that peak baby happened in 2012 for the entire world. There likely will never be that many births again (146M, we are currently at 132M and dropping).

Nobody should be concerned about a slow steady decline in population. But if every country turn into Japan/Korea levels of births there will be major issues worldwide. Big difference between world-wide fertility rates of 1.7-1.9 and those ultra low 1.2 or even crazier South Korea level of .8.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We can import labor into the US. The fastest growing countries are third world countries. But, certain people don't want immigrants (or non white people).

Look at Japan. They need immigrants to replenish their aging population but they are too xenophobic to allow mass immigration. They'd rather let their population die out. Cut off your nose to spite your face. The US is headed in that direction under the Trump administration.

That is not a sustainable long-term strategy to maintain a stable population. Birth rates are declining pretty much everywhere and fertility rates are already below replacement level in 63% of countries. In 2050, more than 75% will be below replacement level. In 2100, 97% of counties will have below replacement level fertility rates. Immigration is not a viable solution to prevent population decline anymore. Only increasing birth rates or medical advances that boost lifespan/slow aging will save us from a demographic crisis.

Yep. Birth rates falling everywhere. It is not realistic yet for the majority of the population to work into the 70s. The machines will do more work but more people will be unemployed and penniless.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:On a country level immigration can work, although most countries are bad at it. But this is a global trend, birth rates are collapsing everywhere. Even in high fertility countries birth rates are dropping at a historically unprecedented pace.

Something most don’t realize is that peak baby happened in 2012 for the entire world. There likely will never be that many births again (146M, we are currently at 132M and dropping).

Nobody should be concerned about a slow steady decline in population. But if every country turn into Japan/Korea levels of births there will be major issues worldwide. Big difference between world-wide fertility rates of 1.7-1.9 and those ultra low 1.2 or even crazier South Korea level of .8.

What is it in Italy? They were trying to incentivize people to have more babies but I don’t think it worked.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:On a country level immigration can work, although most countries are bad at it. But this is a global trend, birth rates are collapsing everywhere. Even in high fertility countries birth rates are dropping at a historically unprecedented pace.

Something most don’t realize is that peak baby happened in 2012 for the entire world. There likely will never be that many births again (146M, we are currently at 132M and dropping).

Nobody should be concerned about a slow steady decline in population. But if every country turn into Japan/Korea levels of births there will be major issues worldwide. Big difference between world-wide fertility rates of 1.7-1.9 and those ultra low 1.2 or even crazier South Korea level of .8.

What is it in Italy? They were trying to incentivize people to have more babies but I don’t think it worked.

370k births last year (vs 651k deaths) their lowest since the countries unification in 1861. Down 2.6% from last year and 36% since 2008. Fertility rates at record low 1.18 (2.1 is replacement).

Close to the point where each generation would be half the size of the previous. Those famous $1 houses will continue and expand significantly, problem with that is they attract retirees when they need young people. Expect entire regions, not just villages, to empty out in the not too distinct future.